Tech's Lead Is Set To Narrow

在股市反弹后，想要找一个继续看多的理由吗？那就看看纳斯达克综合指数吧。纳斯达克指数今年以来上涨了9%，而整体市场则下跌了约3%。从3月9日的底部算起，纳斯达克指数已上涨了36%，为38个交易日中的第六大涨幅，也高于标准普尔500指数30%的涨幅。在上涨的背后是对科技支出回升以及该领域良好资产负债状况的欣喜，而且这个领域不太可能受到政府的严格监管。在过去一个月中修订收益预期的公司中，约有65%的科技公司是向上修正，好于其它行业。但是，这其中有一些值得注意的地方。首先，这次上涨主要是由三只股票推动的。苹果(Apple)今年上涨了49%；Research In Motion上涨了78%；谷歌(Google)上涨了28%，它们总计贡献了纳斯达克指数51%的涨幅。其次，现在买进科技股可能为时已晚。历史表明，如果本轮反弹不仅仅是从3月份对金融市场崩溃的极度恐慌中出现的复苏，那么整体市场将会开始补涨。Birinyi Associates称，自1948年以来，在每次衰退结束前的平均两个月时间里，科技股的表现都强于大盘。不过，一旦衰退结束后，科技股就倾向于横盘整理，而大多数其它类股都会补涨，公用事业和电信是最后启动的类股。如果经济最糟糕的时期的确已经过去，复苏即将开始，那么投资者应该开始关注市场中的其它领域。Gregory Zuckerman相关阅读美股依旧笑春风 2009-05-04美国股市初显希望之光 2009-05-04苹果公司大力建设芯片自主设计队伍 2009-04-30乐观看待经济形势的12大理由 2009-05-01科技股涨势将接受收益报告考验 2009-04-20 本文涉及股票或公司document.write (truthmeter('2009年05月04日11:56', 'GOOG'));Google Inc. (Cl A)总部地点：美国上市地点：纳斯达克股票代码：GOOGdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年05月04日11:56', 'RIMM'));Research in Motion Ltd.总部地点：加拿大(Canada)上市地点：纳斯达克股票代码：RIMMdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年05月04日11:56', 'AAPL'));苹果公司英文名称：Apple Inc.总部地点：美国上市地点：纳斯达克股票代码：AAPLdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年05月04日11:56', 'RIM.T'));Research In Motion Ltd.总部地点：加拿大(Canada)上市地点：多伦多股票代码：RIM


Searching for a reason to remain bullish after the stock-market rally? Try the Nasdaq.The tech-heavy index is up 9% this year, even as the overall market remains down about 3%. Since the March 9 bottom, the Nasdaq is up 36%, its sixth-biggest move over 38 trading days, more than the S&P 500's 30% gain.Behind the gains is excitement about a pickup in tech spending as well as the strong balance sheets in the sector, one that isn't likely to experience heavy government regulation. Of companies that have seen their earnings estimates revised over the past month, about 65% of technology companies have seen upward revisions, better than other industries.There are caveats. First, three stocks are behind most of the bounce. Apple, up 49% this year, Research In Motion, 78% higher, and Google, up 28%, together are responsible for 51% of the index's gains.Second, it may be too late to buy tech. History suggests that, if the current rally is more than just a recovery from excessive fear of financial Armageddon in March, the broader market should start to catch up.Tech shares outperformed the overall market for two months on average before the end of every recession since 1948, according to Birinyi Associates. Once a recession is over, though, tech stocks tend to flatten out and most other areas catch up, with utilities and telecommunications the last to move.If the worst really is over for the economy, and it is poised for recovery, investors should begin to focus on other parts of the market.Gregory Zuckerman