Asia's recovery mirage

亚洲招聘：仓库升降机操作员。工作稳定性：不确定。在经济危机爆发时，亚洲制造商削减产量的力度过大，因此为了满足依然存在的需求，它们将会迅速提升产量。随着企业重新储存原材料和零部件等供应品，仓库将会繁忙起来，亚洲内部的贸易活动也将回暖。按一些指标衡量，复苏的势头有可能非常迅猛。Macquarie Research的经济学家杰拉姆(Richard Jerram)说，在去年第四季度和今年第一季度大幅下降之后，日本的工业生产可能很快会以历史上最快的速度增长。这类数据给投资者带来的乐观情绪可能不会持续多久。在满足了目前的需求水平之后，亚洲工厂生产的低迷将会限制企业效率，损害公司收益。同样，寄希望于中国的增长将刺激亚洲其它地区生产的想法也存在误区。中国将在几年内支出5,850亿美元的经济刺激计划的确推动了进货的重新活跃，但主要是铁矿石等商品。而且，花旗投资研究(Citi Investment Research)的经济学家Johanna Chua说，相对于中国政府的支出，欧美消费者对亚洲制造商来说更加重要。由于西方的经济前景依然不明朗，因此投资者目前最现实的期望应该是稳定，而非复苏。一个积极的迹象应是中国零部件进口量的回升，中国的企业通常将这些零部件组装为电脑和手机等产品后再出口到欧美国家。目前这点仍令人难以理解。中国说，主要电子零部件的库存4月份继续下降。不过，船只，而非电子零部件是推动韩国和新加坡近期对中国出口增长的主要因素。造船是上述两个经济体的重要支柱产业，但这些船只的订单都是几年前确定的。David Roman / Mohammed Hadi相关阅读亚洲国家推出1200亿美元储备基金 2009-05-04气候变化损害东南亚农业 2009-04-29经济低迷影响亚洲“黑池” 2009-04-22亚开行：亚洲股市出现复苏迹象 2009-04-21


Wanted in Asia: Warehouse forklift operators. Job security: Uncertain.Asia's manufacturers overshot the mark in cutting production as the economic crisis set in, so they will ramp up quickly just to keep up with what demand does exist. Warehouses will be busy as companies restock supplies of raw materials and components, and regional trade will pick up. By some measures, the turnaround could be dramatic. After sharp declines in industrial production in Japan over the two quarters that ended in March, the same metric could soon rise at its fastest-ever pace, says Macquarie Research economist Richard Jerram.Investor optimism in the wake of such data could prove fleeting. Even after catching up with current demand levels, anemic production at Asia's factories will limit efficiency and hurt corporate earnings.Similarly, hope that China's growth will spur production elsewhere in Asia is misplaced. China's multiyear, $585 billion stimulus plan is fueling some restocking there, but mainly of commodities such as iron ore.Moreover, consumers in the U.S. and Europe still matter more to Asia's manufacturers than China's government spending, says Johanna Chua, economist at Citi Investment Research. With the West's economic outlook still hazy, stability, not recovery, is the best investors should hope for.One positive sign would be a pickup in Chinese imports of goods that are destined for U.S. and European shores once assembled into computers, cellphones and the like. This remains elusive.China said inventories of major electronics inputs continued to decline in April. And ships, not electronics, have driven recent gains in exports from South Korea and Singapore to China. Shipbuilding is key to both economies, but orders for the vessels sold were placed years ago.David Roman / Mohammed Hadi