Why OECD Boosted Outlook: Housing, China, Inventories

经济合作与发展组织(OECD)周四表示，全球经济正在走出二战以来最为严重的经济衰退，经济复苏步伐快于3个月之前的预期。下面就是OECD列出的上调预期的具体原因。1过去数月的经济消息大体向好。货币市场融资成本下降，公司债利差不断收窄，股市回升，银行收紧信贷标准的状况有所缓解，这些有利因素推动整体金融状况明显好转。不过，银行信贷继续下滑，市场仍然对银行体系的健康程度感到担忧。无论是房价还是成交量，英国和美国的住房市场都显现了一些稳定迹象。今年以来的库存调整似乎达到了某个拐点，此后库存变化可能不再会拖累经济增长，近期可能还会带来提振。类似的，全球贸易似乎已经触底，随着经济复苏势头增强，范围扩大，全球贸易有望加速回升。在没有直接面临金融市场崩溃风险的主要新兴市场经济体中，始于今年早些时候的经济活动复苏势头目前正在积聚动能。中国的情况令人瞩目，受巨额财政刺激举措以及银行信贷迅猛增长推动，预计今年第二季度中国实际国内生产总值(GDP)经季节性因素调整折合成年率增速会超过14%，经济活动将持续上扬。一定程度上受刺激政策推动，其他亚洲新兴市场经济体的GDP增长也强劲回升。2从有利的经济消息来看，基于即将公布的高频指标，OECD的短期预测模式显示，经济复苏时间可能会早于此前几个月的预期。受此影响，过去一年就业市场史无前例的恶化步伐应当会放缓。不过，众多的不利因素意味着，未来的一段时间经济可能只会温和复苏。大量的闲置产能盈利能力偏低居高不下且还在上升的失业率劳动收入增长疲软住房市场持续回调，这些因素将延缓私人需求的回升步伐。与此同时，家庭企业金融机构和政府仍然需要修复他们资产负债状况遭受的损失。3大量闲置产能和年中之前的大宗商品价格崩溃已经导致所有主要经济体的物价出现了负增长或是零增长。经济衰退程度加剧在一定程度上对核心通胀率带来了压力，并将继续遏制通货膨胀上扬。不过，由于通货膨胀预期仍然得到良好控制，近期大宗商品价格出现回升，看起来除了日本以外，其他经济体的持续通货紧缩风险并不大。4经济明显疲软，再加上复苏前景羸弱，这表明经济增长近期仍然需要强劲的政策刺激。谈到货币政策，按照目前的情况来看，大多数情况下，各国央行要等到2010年才能采取举措，推动政策利率从目前的低水平恢复正常，某些情况下，这一时间还需要继续推迟。同样非常重要的是，如果有条件的话，各国央行需要明确交流他们的意图，以便更为有效地影响较长期证券的利率。财政政策方面，所宣布的刺激举措需要得到及时实施。不过，目前来看经济的复苏时间可能早于数月前的预期，这使得采取财政刺激举措的国家进一步推出此类举措的可能性下降。展望未来，OECD国家需要做好准备，取消当前货币和财政政策立场带来的不同寻常的支持力度。在这一点上，各国目前需要准备可信的退出策略和财政整顿计划，即便具体实施会是日后。（“经济实时报”提供有关经济美国联邦储备委员会政策和经济事件的独家新闻分析和评论，《华尔街日报》记者和编辑均参与供稿，由Sudeep Reddy和Phil Izzo主笔。）相关阅读樊纲：预计2010年中国经济增长8%左右 2009-09-04经济学家：美国经济在明年年中或出现倒退 2009-09-04联储纪要：对衰退即将结束的信心增强 2009-09-03OECD预计全球经济将更快实现复苏 2009-09-03刺激计划助推美国经济增长 2009-09-02


The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Thursday said the global economy is emerging from its worst slump since Second World War faster than it had forecast only three months ago. Why the change? Here is the OECD's rundown below.1. Economic news has been mostly favourable over the past few months:Falls in the cost of money market funding, a narrowing of corporate bond spreads, a rebound in equity markets and a moderation in the tightening of bank lending standards have contributed to a marked improvement in overall financial conditions. Nonetheless, bank lending continues to decline and concerns about the health of the banking system remain.The housing markets in the United Kingdom and the United States show some signs of stabilisation, both as regards prices and turnover.The inventory adjustment underway since the beginning of the year appears to have progressed to a point where inventory changes may no longer be a drag on growth and could add to it in the near term. Similarly, global trade appears to have reached a trough and is poised to accelerate as the economic recovery gathers strength and broadens in scope.In the large emerging-market economies, which were not directly concerned by the meltdown in financial markets, the recovery in economic activity that began earlier this year is gaining momentum. Notably in China, GDP is estimated to have risen by over 14 per cent (saar) in the second quarter and activity continues to pick up, supported by the substantial fiscal stimulus and rapid increases in bank lending. GDP growth in other Asian emerging-market economies has also strongly rebounded, partly in response to policy stimulus.2. Given the positive economic news and based on incoming high-frequency indicators, OECD short-term forecasting models point to an earlier recovery than envisaged a few months ago. As a consequence, the unprecedented rate of deterioration in labour market conditions witnessed over the past year should ease. Nonetheless, numerous headwinds imply that the pace of the recovery is likely to be modest for some time to come. Ample spare capacity, low levels of profitability, high and rising unemployment, anaemic growth in labour income and ongoing housing market corrections will moderate any uptick in private demand. At the same time, the need remains for households, businesses, financial institutions and governments to repair the damage to their balance sheets.3. Substantial spare capacity and the collapse in commodity prices until mid-year have led to negative or zero headline inflation in all major economies. Increased economic slack has also damped somewhat measures of underlying inflation and will continue to act as a brake on inflation. Nonetheless, since inflation expectations remain well anchored and given the recent rebound in commodity prices, the risk of sustained deflation appears to be small outside Japan.4. Substantial slack combined with the prospect for a weak recovery, implies that strong policy stimulus will continue to be needed in the near term. Regarding monetary policy, taking the first steps towards normalisation of policy interest rates from their current exceptionally low levels should in most cases and on current prospects wait until well into 2010 and in some cases even beyond. It is also important that central banks communicate their intentions explicitly, if conditionally, so as to affect interest rates at longer maturities more effectively. On fiscal policy, it is important that announced stimulus measures be implemented promptly. However, the possibility of a recovery taking hold a little sooner than envisaged only a few months ago diminishes the likelihood that further fiscal stimulus will be needed in those countries having scope for such action. Looking further ahead, OECD countries need to prepare for the removal of the exceptional degree of support afforded by current monetary and fiscal policy stances. In this regard, preparing credible exit strategies and fiscal consolidation plans now, even if actual implementation will only commence later, is desirable.-0-Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.