Currency Trading: Dollar in a Funk as Traders Bet on Slow Rebound

美元兑多数其他主要货币的汇率周二大幅下挫，因为乐观的投资者断定，世界其他地区摆脱经济衰退的速度会快于美国。周二是夏季假日季节结束后的第一个全天交易日，在伦敦交易时段，美元兑欧元汇率跌至今年以来的最低点。纽约汇市周二尾盘，欧元兑1.4489美元，高于周一尾盘的1.4342美元。美元兑欧元汇率大约为近一年前雷曼兄弟公司(Lehman Brothers)垮台时的水平。美元兑日圆汇率以及兑澳元和加元等与大宗商品挂钩货币的汇率也出现下跌。汇丰(HSBC)驻伦敦的高级货币策略师马科尔(Paul Mackel)说，美元正在经历显著下跌，美元兑几种货币跌破稳定波动区间令投资者心惊胆战。与此同时，经常与美元汇率反向而行的黄金价格则突破了具有象征意义的每盎司1,000美元价位，创下今年2月以来的最高水平，之后有所回落。投资者经常通过购买黄金来对冲经济形势不明朗和通货膨胀风险。纽约市场周二尾盘，近期交割的九月黄金期货报每盎司995美元。货币分析师们说，鉴于美元已经跌破了近期的交易区间，它仍然具有下行空间。几位分析师预计，到今年年底时欧元兑美元汇率将上探1.50美元。马科尔还认为，澳元尤其会持续保持强势，澳大利亚良好的经济形势以及中国经济反弹对该国的带动作用为澳元提供了支持。他说，到2010年底时，澳元有可能接近与美元平盘的水平。周二尾盘，澳元兑0.8620美元，高于周一的0.8560美元。美国上周五公布的就业报告是导致美元下跌的一个重要因素。美国8月份的失业率升至9.7%，这意味着美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)在可预见的未来有可能将利率维持在低水平。与此同时，来自澳大利亚韩国台湾和欧洲的正面经济消息证实了货币交易员们的一种观点，即这些地区为了阻止经济过热，有可能被迫早于美国上调利率。利率上调意味着投资这些地区货币的回报率会提高。瑞信(Credit Suisse)驻伦敦的外汇策略部门负责人法瑞斯(Ray Farris)说，美元面临的核心问题依然是投资者风险偏好良好美国极低的利率水平以及美联储清楚表明美国利率将长期保持在低水平。他说，市场面临着要寻找投资收益的很大压力，而美国没有这种收益。事实上，就在美元汇率周二下跌之际，美元的长期借贷成本也降至新低。英国银行家协会(British Bankers' Association)的数据显示，美元的三个月期伦敦银行同业拆息从周一的0.30875%下降至0.30188%。这是该指标1986推出以来的最低水平。某种程度上说，投资者正用美元来重演一套在本世纪以来大部分时间内推动日圆走低的策略，即融资套利交易。由于美国的利率已跌至世界最低水平，且预计仍将维持在低水平，投资者可以借入美元来购买高收益率货币或新兴市场的股票。亚洲和欧洲的股市周二普遍上扬。对美元世界储备货币地位的质疑声不断也在削弱着美元汇率。联合国贸易和发展大会(United Nations Conference on Trade and Development)周一发布的一份报告说，以美元为中心的全球经济“正日益受到挑战”，报告暗示，世界正向建立一个更具国际性的货币体系前进。ALEX FRANGOS相关阅读避险需求或推动美元走强 2009-09-07美元时代必将终结？ 2009-09-01良好经济消息推动美元汇率上扬 2009-08-10升值──亚洲货币的唯一之路 2009-07-10


The U.S. currency fell sharply against most major rivals Tuesday, as optimistic investors bet that the rest of the world will pull out of recession faster than will the U.S.On the first full trading day after the summer holiday season wrapped up, the dollar hit its lowest point this year against the euro during London trading.Late afternoon in New York, the euro was buying $1.4489, up from $1.4342 late Monday. The greenback is trading at about the same level as before the collapse of Lehman Brothers almost one year ago. The dollar also fell against the yen and commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollars.'You are seeing a notable breakdown in the dollar,' says Paul Mackel, senior currency strategist at HSBC in London. 'The fact that the dollar is out of the well-established ranges with several currencies has gotten investors jumpy.'Meanwhile, gold, which often moves in the opposite direction of the U.S. dollar, moved above the symbolic $1,000 per troy ounce, its highest since February, before slipping back. Investors often buy gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty and inflation. Front-month September gold late afternoon in New York was at $995.Currency analysts say the dollar's slide has room to run now that it has broken free of recent trading ranges. Several are predicting the euro will test $1.50 by the end of the year. Mr. Mackel also sees continued strength, in particular, for the Australian dollar, which is backed by a healthy economy and exposure to a rebounding China. He says the Aussie currency could reach near parity with the U.S. dollar by the end of 2010. Late afternoon Tuesday it was trading at US$0.8620, up from US$0.8560.Friday's U.S. jobs report was a significant factor in the dollar's fall. The U.S. unemployment rate hit 9.7% in August, and that means the Federal Reserve will likely keep interest rates low for the foreseeable future.Meantime, positive economic news from Australia, Korea, Taiwan, and Europe confirmed views among currency traders that those places will likely be forced to raise interest rates before the U.S. in order to prevent their economies from overheating. Higher interest rates mean better returns for those countries' currencies.'The core problem for the dollar remains that risk appetite is good, U.S. interest rates are extremely low, and the Fed has done a good job telling us they will stay low a long time,' says Ray Farris, head of foreign-exchange strategy at Credit Suisse in London. 'The market is under a lot of pressure to seek yield on investments. There is no yield in the U.S.'Indeed, Tuesday's dollar drop came on a day when the cost to borrow the U.S. currency over the longer-term hit a new low. Data from the British Bankers' Association showed the three-month dollar Libor fell to 0.30188% from Monday's 0.30875%. That is the lowest since that index was introduced in 1986.In some ways, investors are using dollars to reprise a strategy that helped weaken the Japanese yen for much of the decade -- what is known as the carry trade. With interest rates in the U.S. as low as anywhere and expected to stay low, investors can borrow in dollars and buy higher-yielding currencies or emerging-market stocks. Stock markets in Asia and Europe were up broadly Tuesday.Also gnawing at the dollar is continuing chatter about its role as the world's reserve currency. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development released a report Monday that said the dollar-centric global economy is 'increasingly challenged' and suggested the world move to a more internationally based currency system.ALEX FRANGOS