Banks' Telethon Is Nearly Over

银行正在享受轻松筹资的日子。摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.)摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)美国运通(American Express Co.)和地区银行KeyCorp周二说，已经发行了总计87亿美元的普通股。这样，自5月7日美国政府的“压力测试”结果公布以来，参加测试的19家金融公司发行的股票总值已经达到至少650亿美元。John Ueland / Associated Press摩根大通摩根士丹利美国银行和美国运通的CEO通过发行无担保债券和将优先股转换成普通股，银行又筹得了约200亿美元，使总额达到850亿美元甚至更多。这样随着大部分银行走出衰退，它们筹集的资金明显高过了美国监管机构的要求。资金迅速涌入，令大吃一惊的银行家们几乎难以置信，特别是大部分投资者在仅仅3个月前还都对金融类股避之不及，尽管当时金融类股已经跌了近40%。一位银行高管周二说，现在筹资很容易，投资者们乐于大举买进。这家银行最近通过公开募股筹集了资金。一些参与了最近银行股票发行的投资者说，道理很简单：经济跌落悬崖的可能性正不断减小，从市盈率来看，很多银行看起来都很便宜。新泽西州对冲基金公司Appaloosa Management LP总裁特普尔(David Tepper)说，世界末日式的交易已不复存在。该公司持有美国银行(Bank of America Corp.)SunTrust Banks Inc.和Fifth Third Bancorp等银行的股票。他还说，根据2011年和2012年的预期收益，银行业可能是市场上最便宜的行业类股。知情人士说，Appaloosa参与了美国银行的普通股发行和优先股转换。总部位于北卡罗来纳州夏洛特的美国银行周二说，已经筹集了近330亿美元资金，现在认为总金额将轻松超过美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)要求的339亿美元。据参与交易的人士透露，共同基金和其他大型机构投资者在一些股票发行中一直积极买进。由于这类投资者中有很多此前避开了银行类股，3月份银行类股开始大幅飙升时，它们的表现落后于大盘。本月交易的火爆是以略低于市场价格的水平增大金融类股风险敞口的一个机会。尽管投资者热情高涨，业界专家们仍担心势头可能会减弱，甚至一些安排股票发行鼓励客户迅速行动筹集资金的投资银行家也有类似的担忧。自3月9日以来，Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Inc.大型银行股票指数已经飙升了87%，相比之下，道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数的反弹为34%。穆迪公司(Moody's Corp.)旗下穆迪投资者服务(Moody's Investors Service)的分析师们周二警告说，背负该公司所评级债务的美国各家银行明年全年将面临4,700亿美元损失。如果经济继续恶化，银行的损失可能膨胀至6,400亿美元，同时穆迪也很可能加快下调银行债务评级。穆迪的分析师们写道，如果发生这种情况，银行业需要政府持续的资金和流动性支持计划，可能还要进一步深化，否则将会有众多银行陷入破产境地。纽约一家银行的一名管理人员说，投资者似乎对任何一点微小的好消息都深信不疑，同时却忽视了银行状况不佳的危险信号。他将银行业比作接受重症监护的病人，其病情已经稳定，但仍然处于危急之中。他说，人们会被一桶冷水当头浇下。一方面来看，投资者对银行业的未来比银行管理层更满怀热情。投资网站InsiderInsights.com的研究主管莫兰德(Jonathan Moreland)说，接受压力测试的银行中有15家通过公开发行股票筹资，但近期没有银行高管宣布买进了自家银行的股票。InsiderInsights.com位于纽约，跟踪公司高管的股票买卖模式。举例来说，今年1月和2月，美国银行(Bank of America)首席执行长刘易斯(Kenneth Lewis)和摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)董事长兼首席执行长戴蒙(James Dimon)都大量买进了自家公司的股票。美国银行股票目前较3月低点上涨了263%，摩根大通上涨118%。美国银行发言人斯蒂克勒(Robert Stickler)拒绝就刘易斯为何未在公司股票反弹期间买进更多股票发表评论。刘易斯今年早些时候买进的40万股股票已经实现了逾200万美元的帐面利润。斯蒂克勒说，刘易斯做了一笔很好的投资。另一个可能的警示迹象：英国银行股周一下跌，此前阿布扎比王室成员同时也是阿布扎比国际石油投资公司（International Petroleum Investment Co.）董事长的Sheik Mansour Bin Zayed Al Nahyan决定出售所持大量巴克莱集团(Barclays PLC)股份中的一部分。巴克莱股价自1月以来涨了5倍，Sheik Mansour此次出售股票将获得15亿英镑（25亿美元）的利润。摩根士丹利周二发行23亿美元股票的大买家是中国投资有限责任公司(China Investment Corp.，简称：中投公司)，中投公司以12亿美元吃下4,470万股，其在摩根士丹利的股份也增加到9.9%左右。这是去年初全球金融危机开始恶化以来，中投公司对欧美银行的首桩重大公开投资。三菱UFJ金融集团(Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group)也同意买进1,600万股摩根士丹利股票，其股份由此增加到大约20%。DAVID ENRICH / AARON LUCCHETTI / DAN FITZPATRICK （更新完成）相关阅读美国银行业第一季度实现盈利 2009-05-27美国银行业用寿险抚恤金支付员工奖金 2009-05-20美国银行业压力测试“压力”不够大 2009-05-08压力测试再揭美国银行业650亿窟窿 2009-05-07 本文涉及股票或公司document.write (truthmeter('2009年06月03日11:22', 'BCS'));Barclays PLC (ADS)总部地点：英国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：BCSdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年06月03日11:22', 'BAC'));美国银行英文名称：Bank of America Co.总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：BACdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年06月03日11:22', 'AXP'));美国运通公司英文名称：American Express Co.总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：AXPdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年06月03日11:22', 'JPM'));摩根大通公司英文名称：JPMorgan Chase & Co.总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：JPMdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年06月03日11:22', 'KEY'));KeyCorp总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：KEYdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年06月03日11:22', 'BCS'));巴克莱集团英文名称：Barclays PLC (ADS)总部地点：英国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：BCSdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年06月03日11:22', 'MS'));摩根士丹利英文名称：Morgan Stanley总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：MSdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年06月03日11:22', 'BARC.LN'));Barclays Plc总部地点：英国上市地点：伦敦股票代码：BARC


Banks are having an easy time dialing for dollars.J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Morgan Stanley, American Express Co. and regional bank KeyCorp said Tuesday they sold a combined $8.7 billion in common stock. That pushed the total value of shares sold by the 19 financial firms that were stress-tested by the government to at least $65 billion since the results were announced May 7.Nonguaranteed debt sales and the conversion of preferred shares to common stock have generated roughly another $20 billion, for a total of $85 billion or more, giving most of the banks considerably more capital than U.S. regulators have required them to amass as they ride out the recession. Money is pouring in so fast that surprised bankers can hardly believe it, especially since most investors didn't want to go near financial stocks just three months ago, even though they were nearly 40% cheaper.'It's easy to raise capital now,' one executive at a bank that recently raised capital through a public stock offering said Tuesday. Investors are 'happy to gobble it up.'Some investors who participated in recent bank-stock sales said the logic is simple: The likelihood that the economy will veer off a cliff is dwindling, and many banks look cheap on a price-to-earnings basis.'The Armageddon trade is off the table,' said David Tepper, president of Appaloosa Management LP, a Short Hills, N.J., hedge-fund firm that owns shares of Bank of America Corp., SunTrust Banks Inc. and Fifth Third Bancorp. Based on likely earnings in 2011 and 2012, the banking industry 'may be the cheapest sector in the market,' he added.Appaloosa participated in a common-stock offering and preferred-share swap by Bank of America, according to a person familiar with the situation. The Charlotte, N.C., bank said Tuesday it has raised nearly $33 billion and 'now believes it will comfortably exceed' the $33.9 billion it was told to raise by the Federal Reserve.Mutual funds and other large institutional investors have been aggressive buyers in some of the stock offerings, according to people involved in the deals. Because lots of those investors had previously shunned bank stocks, they lagged behind the overall market when bank stocks rallied starting in March. This month's frenzy of deals was a chance to increase exposure to the industry at a slight discount to the market price.Despite the enthusiasm, industry experts and even some investment bankers who arranged stock offerings and encouraged their clients to move quickly to drum up capital are worried about a potential letdown. Since March 9, a Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Inc. index of large-bank stocks has soared 87%, compared with the Dow Jones Industrial Average's 34% rebound.Analysts at Moody's Investors Service warned Tuesday that U.S. banks with debt that is rated by the Moody's Corp. unit face about $470 billion in losses through next year. If the economy continues to suffer, those losses could swell to $640 billion, and Moody's would likely accelerate its bank-debt downgrades.'In such a scenario, absent continuation, and likely deepening, of U.S. government capital and liquidity support programs for the banking industry, numerous banks would be insolvent,' the Moody's analysts wrote.One executive at a New York bank said investors seem to be embracing any tidbit of good news, while ignoring red flags about banks' ill health. He compared the industry with an intensive-care patient who has stabilized but remains critical. 'A bucket of cold water will be thrown in people's faces,' the executive said.By one measurement, investors are more enthusiastic about the industry's future than bank executives are. At the 15 stress-tested banks that have raised capital by selling stock to the public, no senior executives have recently reported buying shares themselves, according to Jonathan Moreland, director of research at InsiderInsights.com. The New York firm tracks stock-buying and selling patterns among corporate executives.In January and February, for example, Bank of America Chief Executive Kenneth Lewis and J.P. Morgan Chairman and CEO James Dimon were big buyers of their company's shares. Bank of America shares are up 263% from their March low, while J.P. Morgan has jumped 118%.Robert Stickler, a Bank of America spokesman, declined to comment on why Mr. Lewis hasn't bought more shares during the stock's rally. The CEO has a paper profit of more than $2 million on the 400,000 shares he bought earlier this year. 'He has made a nice investment,' Mr. Stickler said.Another possible warning sign: British bank stocks fell Monday after Sheik Mansour Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, a member of Abu Dhabi's royal family and the chairman of Abu Dhabi's International Petroleum Investment Co., decided to sell part of a large stake in Barclays PLC.Barclays's share price has risen fivefold since January. Sheik Mansour will reap a £1.5 billion ($2.5 billion) profit on the sale.Buyers in Morgan Stanley's $2.3 billion stock offering Tuesday were led by China Investment Corp., which got 44.7 million shares for $1.2 billion, bringing its overall stake in the Wall Street firm to about 9.9%. It was the Chinese sovereign-wealth fund's first major public investment in a Western bank since the global financial crisis began worsening early last year. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group also agreed to purchase 16 million Morgan Stanley shares, bringing its stake to about 20%.DAVID ENRICH / AARON LUCCHETTI / DAN FITZPATRICK