China - Watch The Body Language

如果要理解中国如何影响美国债券市场，就要观其行，而非听其言。中国官员最近数月一直扮演着目光敏锐的批评者角色，对美国财政赤字以及有违常规的货币政策持批评态度。鉴于中国可能持有大约7,500亿美元美国政府债券，许多市场观察家担心中国可能会因担心通货膨胀率提高以及美元下跌而采取抛售债券的行动。但是这种虚张声势实际上只是为了中国国内的需要，并且掩盖了美国和中国金融关系紧密的事实。只要中国继续出现贸易顺差，并用顺差产生的美元买进美元资产以控制汇率，那么中国就只能将资金放在美国国债上面，除此之外几乎别无选择。而且也没有证据说明过去数周美国国债收益率走高是因中国削减庞大头寸所致。美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)数据显示，外国央行5月份增持大约690亿美元美国国债。国债收益率的提高更多地反映了通货紧缩担忧的缓解，这主要是因为全球商品价格走高，以及经济状况改善的信号增多。目前通货膨胀保值债券(Treasury Inflation Protected Securities)市场反映出的通货膨胀率水平约为2%，基本与去年8月全球产出大幅下滑前的水平一致。正是在产生通货膨胀预期的情况下，人们才真正感受到中国的影响力。其制造业调查显示中国的制造业已经远远提前于发达国家恢复增长。或许更重要的是，中国正在狼吞虎咽地消耗大宗商品。今年迄今中国的铜进口量已经增长一倍多。铁矿石进口已经较去年的创纪录水平增长了三分之一。然而，中国并不讳言利用低价时机建立石油和金属储备。如果这种储备行为在未来数月放缓，而且发达国家的实际需求也未能增加到足以弥补这一缺口的水平，那么目前对大宗商品价格上涨的预期就将变得过于勉强。到那时，中国可能又会因美国国债收益率回落而遭到怪罪。Andrew Batson相关阅读美联储坦然面对债券收益率上升 2009-05-29美国国债市场奏响忧郁蓝调（下） 2009-05-22美国国债市场奏响忧郁蓝调（上） 2009-05-21美元下跌或令中国政府略感紧张 2009-05-12中国驻美大使：中国很可能继续购买美国国债 2009-05-11


If you want to understand how China is affecting the U.S. bond market, watch what it does, not what it says.Chinese officials have in recent months positioned themselves as sharp-eyed critics of U.S. fiscal deficits and unconventional monetary policy. Given that China holds perhaps $750 billion in U.S. government debt, many market watchers have become obsessed by the possibility that China could act on its worries about rising inflation and a falling dollar, and sell bonds.But this grandstanding is really for domestic consumption, and obscures the hard facts of the U.S.-China financial relationship. As long as China continues to both run a trade surplus and control its currency by buying up the dollars generated by that surplus, it has little choice but to park the proceeds in U.S. Treasurys.And there is no evidence that the rise in U.S. bond yields over the past few weeks has been caused by China paring its massive holdings. Federal Reserve data show foreign central banks added about $69 billion to their holdings of Treasurys in May.The rise in bond yields mostly reflects a receding fear of deflation, as global commodity prices rise and signs of economic improvement accumulate. The market in Treasury Inflation Protected Securities is now pricing in inflation around 2%, roughly the same as it did last August before global output declined sharply.It is in expectations for inflation that China's influence is really being felt. Its manufacturing surveys have turned into positive territory well before those in the developed world. Perhaps more importantly, China is gobbling up commodities: Net imports of copper have more than doubled so far this year. Iron ore imports are already a third higher than last year's record levels.Yet China has made no secret of the fact that it has been taking advantage of lower prices to build up reserves of oil and metals. If that stockpiling falls off in coming months, and isn't matched by a pickup in real demand from developed nations, current expectations for rising commodity prices might start to look stretched. And then China could get blamed for bond yields coming right back down again.TALK BACK: We invite readers to send us comments on this or other financial news topics. Please email us at [e-mail]. Readers should include their full names, work or home addresses and telephone numbers for verification purposes. We reserve the right to edit and publish your comments along with your name; we reserve the right not to publish reader comments.Andrew Batson