Mortgage Bailout Has a Darker Side

这将作为信贷危机中规模最大最受欢迎的救助措施之一而被载入史册。但是今后谁来买单？美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)正着手收购数千亿美元由房利美(Fannie Mae)和房地美(Freddie Mac)担保的低息房屋抵押贷款。目前规模已达到2,500亿美元，有可能会增加到1.25万亿美元，此举把抵押贷款利率拉至历史低点，刺激了购房并引发了一轮转按揭热潮。这有助于重要社会和政治目标的实现：帮助提振房价，而同时较低的抵押贷款利率等于是让那些还贷不成问题的人得到了额外的好处。这降低了他们反对用纳税人的钱来支持面临止赎困境的房主的可能性。此外，随着美联储的大举收购提振了价格，持有“两房”证券的银行会获得巨额收益。分析师惠特尼(Meredith Whitney)估计，去年第四季度，资产规模最大的10家银行增持了1,286亿美元的“两房”和政府机构发行的证券，增幅为30%。这些证券第一季度计入的价值将会更高。最方便的一点是：抵押贷款是由美联储收购的，它无需为此从国会获得批准。理论上讲，这是梦想中的救助。它不仅对大型银行有好处，对普通民众也有益，不容易受到政治家们的影响，美联储也不必借钱为收购提供资金──它只要印钞票就行了。当有什么事看起来这么美妙的时候，投资者就有必要进行更深入的考察。然后就会发现，美联储收购抵押贷款之举存在很多风险。第一大风险是，收购无异于是对美联储信用的又一打击；美联储的货币政策曾为信贷泡沫起了推波助澜的作用。当然，印钞票存在通货膨胀风险。在美联储主席贝南克(Ben Bernanke)领导之下的大刀阔斧的行动也干扰了市场定价。收购抵押贷款可能会把美联储资产负债表上的资产推高至3万亿美元，相当于美国国内生产总值的20%以上。所以，当美联储停手时，抵押贷款利率可能会大幅上升。美联储的收购规模已经让私营市场难以招架了。目前，投资者对“两房”票面利率在5%以下的抵押贷款的需求有限，原因是持有收益率如此低的证券存在风险。为了弥补缺口，在截至3月25日的4周里，美联储共收购了1,920亿美元票面利率为4%和4.5%的符合资格的抵押贷款。持有这些高风险证券今后可能会损害美联储。如果美联储想向私人投资者出售票面利率为4%的抵押贷款，卖出的价格很可能必须足以产生超过5%的收益率，进而可能导致美联储遭受损失。当然，它也可以选择持有这些抵押贷款直至到期，而“两房”将承担由此带来的任何信贷损失。收购抵押贷款还可能以一种破坏性的方式改变美联储的核心任务。美联储和财政部上个月少有地发表联合声明说，美联储的工作并不是向特定的少数部门或是少数类型的贷款人分配信贷。不过将那么多资金集中用在住房抵押贷款（和房屋所有者）上，看起来就是在这样做。今后每当有资产陷入困境时，投资者就可能会指望政府用买进资产的办法来支撑。最后，美联储的行动可能会招致国会的严格审查。新泽西州共和党众议员加内特(Scott Garrett)说，只要美联储做出完美决策，一切就没问题；国会面临的挑战是，我们能否建立监管机制来确保美联储做出完美决策。这次的救助不受监管的日子可能不会太久了。Peter Eavis相关阅读美联储想要告别救火队长角色 2009-03-24美联储印钞票无需印钞机 2009-03-23贝南克金融改革建议花拳秀腿难奏效 2009-03-23美联储收购债券对你意味着什么？ 2009-03-20 本文涉及股票或公司document.write (truthmeter('2009年04月03日14:23', 'FNM'));Fannie Mae总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：FNMdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月03日14:23', 'FRE'));Freddie Mac总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：FRE


It will go down as one of the biggest -- and most popular -- bailouts of the credit crunch. But who will pay for it later?The Federal Reserve is buying hundreds of billions of dollars of low-interest-rate mortgages guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The purchases, which so far amount to $250 billion and could grow to $1.25 trillion, have driven mortgage rates to historical lows, inducing house purchases and sparking a refinancing wave.This serves key social and political goals: It helps shore up house prices, while the lower mortgage rates put extra money into the pockets of people who aren't struggling to service their mortgages. This then makes them less likely to oppose taxpayer-funded moves to support homeowners facing foreclosure.What's more, banks holding Fannie and Freddie securities get to book big gains as the Fed's buying spree drives up prices. Analyst Meredith Whitney estimates the top 10 banks by assets increased their holdings of securities issued by Fannie and Freddie and government agencies by $128.6 billion, or 30%, in the fourth quarter. Those will be marked higher in the first quarter.Most convenient of all: This mortgage buying is being done by the Fed, which doesn't need approval from Congress for the purchases.On paper, it is a dream bailout. It benefits not just large banks but also ordinary people, it is hard for politicians to tamper with, and the Fed doesn't have to borrow money to fund the purchases -- it just prints it instead.When something looks this good, it pays for investors to dig deeper. And the risks abound.The biggest is that the purchases will deal another blow to the credibility of the Fed, whose monetary policies helped stoke the credit boom.Of course, printing money carries inflation risk. And the Fed's aggressive actions, led by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, mess with market pricing. The mortgage purchases could help increase assets on the Fed's balance sheet to $3 trillion, equivalent to more than 20% of gross domestic product. So when it stops buying, mortgage rates could rise sharply.The size of the Fed purchases are already overwhelming private markets. Right now, there is limited investor demand for Fannie and Freddie mortgages with coupons under 5%, due to the risks of holding such low-yielding paper. Filling that gap, the Fed purchased $192 billion of 4% and 4.5% conforming mortgages, on a gross basis, in the four weeks ended March 25.Holding this risky paper could damage the Fed later on. If it wants to sell 4% mortgages to private investors, it would likely have to do so at a price that creates a yield above 5%, potentially triggering a loss for the Fed. It could, of course, choose to hold the mortgages to maturity, with any credit losses covered by Fannie and Freddie.The mortgage buying also could alter the Fed's core mission in a detrimental way. In an unusual joint statement last month, the Fed and Treasury said the Fed's job wasn't to 'allocate credit to narrowly defined sectors or classes of borrowers.' Yet focusing so much money on residential mortgages, and thus homeowners, seems to do just that. Investors might come to expect support-purchases every time an asset gets into trouble.Finally, the Fed's actions may attract congressional scrutiny. 'Everything's fine as long as the Fed is making perfect decisions,' says Rep. Scott Garrett (R., N.J.). 'The challenge for Congress is: Can we do anything to create oversight to address that.'This bailout mightn't stay backdoor for long.Peter Eavis