Fed Doesn't Need a Press to Print Its New Money

假如可以大印钞票，难道不是美事一桩吗？美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)就可以。过去7个月中，美联储已经向金融系统注入了约8,000亿美元的“新钱”，上周又表示，在未来几个月中可能会再注入1万亿美元甚至更多。但是，这些新钱并不是从印钞机上印出来装到装甲车里，而是美联储从证券交易商手里买进证券或其他资产，作为交换条件，支付给它们的相当于现金存在银行里的电子信贷。到3月中旬前，现金信贷（也就是所谓的银行储备）已经从去年8月的30亿美元增加至7,760亿美元。美联储本周明确表示，随着美联储扩大救助计划，未来几个月中银行储备将大幅增长。当然，美联储可以通过铸印局(Bureau of Engraving and Printing)真的印钞票。美联储的名字就印在你钱包里的钞票上。不过，美联储并不是这样扩大货币和信贷供应量的。自去年8月以来，美联储发行的纸币（也就是美钞）仅从7,930亿美元增加至8,620亿美元。要想理解美联储的所作所为，关键是要弄懂美联储买进的证券。本周美联储表示，将买进至多1.25万亿美元由政府所有的抵押贷款企业房利美(Fannie Mae)房地美(Freddie Mac)和吉利美（Ginnie Mae）发行的抵押贷款支持证券。它还会买进至多2,000亿美元由这三家企业发行的债券。重要的是，美联储将买进至多3,000亿美元由美国政府自己发行的长期国债。美联储希望，这些收购可以拉低长期利率，降低抵押贷款成本。理论上讲，当美联储买进证券时，证券价格会被推高，收益率会被拉低。一些经济学家认为美联储的举措令人担忧，特别是买进政府债券的做法。美联储实际上是在造钱，并借给财政部。经济学家担心这样做会增大预算赤字。不过，目前美联储担心的并不是通货膨胀。由于太多的工厂闲置，房屋空置，很难让价格上涨。美联储不断向银行注入的现金也没有被用于放贷。Barclays Capital的经济学家哈里斯(Ethan Harris)说，只有当银行体系开始扩大信贷时，才会出现支出增加和通货膨胀。官员们希望，这些新钱可以为经济带来更多信贷，帮助振兴金融体系。如果一切都按计划的一样进行，美联储官员将在复苏期间把额外的钱收回，在通货膨胀失控之前上调利率。Jon Hilsenrath相关阅读贝南克金融改革建议花拳秀腿难奏效 2009-03-23贝南克：可能有必要修改资本和会计准则 2009-03-21美联储收购债券对你意味着什么？ 2009-03-20美联储放手一搏 福祸几何？ 2009-03-19原声视频：为什么美联储要投资美国国债？(中文字幕) 2009-03-19零利率时代美联储还能做些什么？ 2009-03-18


Wouldn't it be nice if you could just print money?The U.S. Federal Reserve can. It has pumped roughly $800 billion of new money into the financial system over the past seven months, and last week said another trillion dollars or more could be created in months ahead.But new money doesn't roll off a printing press and get loaded in armored trucks. The Fed purchases securities or other assets from securities dealers in exchange for electronic credits that amount to cash and are deposited in banks.The cash credits -- known as bank reserves -- have grown from $3 billion last August to $776 billion by mid-March. The Fed made clear this week that reserves will soar in the months ahead, as the central bank expands its rescue programs.Sure, the Fed can literally print money through the Bureau of Engraving and Printing. The central bank's name is on the money in your wallet. But that isn't how it expands money and credit. Since August, Federal Reserve notes -- also known as dollars -- have only increased to $862 billion from $793 billion.The key to understanding what the Fed does is understanding the securities it buys. This week, it said it would purchase as much as $1.25 trillion of mortgage-backed securities backed by the government-owned mortgage firms Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae. It will also buy as much as $200 billion of debt issued by those firms. And, importantly, it will buy up to $300 billion of long-term debt issued by the U.S. government itself.The Fed hopes the purchases will drive down long-term interest rates and make mortgages cheaper. When it buys securities, in theory, that should drive up the price and drive down the yield.Some economists find the Fed's actions alarming, especially its purchases of government bonds. The Fed is essentially creating money and lending it to the Treasury. Economists worry this will bloat budget deficits.Right now, though, the Fed's worry isn't inflation. With so many factories standing idle and homes sitting empty, it is hard to raise prices. And the cash the Fed has been pumping into banks isn't being turned into loans.'It is only if the banking system starts to expand credit that you get higher spending and inflation,' says Ethan Harris, an economist with Barclays Capital.Officials hope the new money gets more credit into the economy and helps to revive the financial system. If all goes according to plan, Fed officials will pull the extra money during a recovery, pushing interest rates higher before inflation gets out of hand.Jon Hilsenrath