The Job Market Needs to Hold Up Its End

现在是劳动力市场开始出现像制造业和金融市场那种改善的时候了。美国劳工统计局周五上午将发布8月份就业数据。经济学家估计非农就业人数将连续第20个月下降，在7月份减少24.7万人的基础上再减少23.3万人。经济学家认为，失业率在7月份出人意料地回落到9.4%之后，8月份将再次反弹到9.5%。大多数经济学家预计，失业率最终将达到10%，然后才可能出现好转。许多人警告说，这次经济复苏可能会像前两次一样，属于“就业疲软型”复苏。最近有迹象显示就业市场出现了好转。每月的失业人数失远远低于冬季时最糟糕的水平，当时雇主在3个月时间里裁员200多万。裁员仍然居高不下，但这在衰退末期属于正常现象。每周申请失业救济人数比3月末时的高峰下降了15.4%。制造业的裁员已经放缓。不过，到目前为止，其中一些指标只是回到了前几次经济衰退时的最差水平。比如，57万人的申请失业救济人数与劳动力总数的比例同前两次衰退时的最高值基本一致。美国供应管理协会(Institute for Supply Management)编制的服务业就业指数还显示，上月该行业的裁员人数是去年9月份以来最低的。但裁员数仍要高于2001年经济衰退最严重的时期。服务业对美国就业市场至关重要，约占美国非农就业人数的86%。供应管理协会周四公布，就业人数仍在下降，Miller Tabak首席经济策略师格林豪斯(Dan Greenhaus)指出，疲弱的消费支出水平将在近期内继续给产出带来压力。几个月来，就业市场改善的微弱迹象，加之制造业数据的走强，已足以推动近期刚刚停息的股市反弹。随着消费者以旧车换新车和企业停止倾销库存，工厂数据明显改善。但是，如果就业报告并未很快像制造业数据那样乐观，那么股市进一步的上涨恐怕将难以实现。Mark Gongloff相关阅读经济学家：美国经济在明年年中或出现倒退 2009-09-04联储纪要：对衰退即将结束的信心增强 2009-09-03刺激计划助推美国经济增长 2009-09-02楼继伟：预计美国经济复苏将呈W型 2009-08-31


It is high time the labor market started showing the kinds of improvement the factory sector and financial markets have.The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases August jobs data on Friday morning. Economists estimate nonfarm payrolls shrank for the 20th consecutive month, shedding 233,000 jobs on top of the 247,000 lost in July. Economists think the unemployment rate ticked back up to 9.5% after a surprising dip to 9.4% in July.Most economists expect unemployment to hit 10% before all is said and done, and many warn that this recovery could be a 'jobless' one like the prior two.There have been recent signs of a job-market turn. Monthly payroll losses are far below their worst levels this winter, when employers shed more than two million workers in the span of three ugly months. Job cuts are still high, but that isn't unusual at the end of recessions. Weekly jobless claims are 15.4% below their peak in late March. Job cuts in manufacturing have slowed.Still, so far some of these indicators have merely gotten back to their worst levels of recent recessions. At 570,000, for example, jobless claims roughly match the peak of the past two recessions, as a percentage of the civilian labor force.The service-sector employment index compiled by the Institute for Supply Management also suggests the fewest job cuts in that sector since September. But the cuts are still more than at the worst of the 2001 recession.The service sector is crucial for the job market, accounting for nearly 86% of all nonfarm jobs in the U.S. And it is still contracting, the ISM reported on Thursday, suggesting 'subdued consumer-spending levels will continue to put a lid on output in the near term,' notes Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak.For several months, meager signs of job-market improvement, combined with more-robust factory data, have been enough to egg on a blistering stock-market rally that has only recently stalled.Factory data have improved sharply as consumers traded in their clunkers and businesses stopped dumping inventory.But if jobs reports don't soon start looking as rosy as the factory data, then further stock gains will be harder to achieve.Mark Gongloff