Gasoline Demand Unlikely To Boost Oil

汽油供应收缩和美国需求上升来得太晚了，没法为低落的油价提供太多支撑。原油期货价格自6月以来一直在每桶70美元左右徘徊，因预期今年下半年随着主要经济体从经济低迷中复苏，石油需求将会上升。需求的重点在美国和中国这两个全球最大原油消费国。中国的消费量通常很难从不透明的政府数据中推断，但据美国能源部(Energy Department)的数据，美国汽油需求在截止8月28日当周较上周增加4%，达到三个月以来的最高点。同期汽油存货下降300万桶，降幅远超分析师此前预期。但这一消息带来的提振可能太微弱太迟了，尤其是上述数据还计入了美国劳工节长周末假日之前燃油从炼油厂向批发商流动的情况，传统上会有许多人在这个时候驾车上路。假期之后，汽油需求及其与整体原油市场的关联度往往会下降。随着天气逐渐变凉，重点转向取暖油，后者与柴油等燃油一道处于历史上少见的过剩。Vantage Trading副总裁多诺万(Peter Donovan)说，汽油存货数据对油价来说勉强算是提振……但事实是，夏季驾驶季节即将结束，汽油存货数据也就不算什么了。即使是非旺季的时候，美国汽车需求在全球石油市场的份量也不小，占全球石油消耗量的10%以上。美国汽油需求在2007年7月达到高点后下滑，促使原油价格从去年创纪录高点145.29美元一路崩溃。分析师们认为，考虑到加油站的价格较上年同期下降了逾1美元，需求的增加就更显得微不足道了。美国汽车协会AAA Daily Fuel Gauge Report的数据显示，上周五，普通汽油零售均价为2.591美元/加仑。汽油销售利润增加可能会破坏减少石油产品存货的努力。上周汽油需求上升鼓励了炼油厂增加加工的原油量。由于炼油厂并不是只生产一种燃油，更高的开工率就可能导致柴油和取暖油供过于求的状况恶化。美国能源部数据显示，美国馏分油存货位于26年高点，而截至8月28日的四周需求较上年同期下降7.3%。周五纽约商交所汽油期货跌0.0165美元至1.7763美元/加仑，跌幅0.9%，当周总计跌6.5%。今年迄今汽油期货上涨76%，原油期货上涨53%。推动汽油期货走势的是短期的季节性现象。只有当炼油厂商从夏季用油转向冬季用油时，汽油现货市场的交易员才会预期供应收紧。纽约港两天交货的夏季新配方汽油比纽约商交所基准汽油期货合约高21美分，9月20日交货的冬季汽油价格溢价仅为1美分。Brian Baskin相关阅读发改委否认调整新的成品油价格形成机制 2009-08-31油价涨跌 要看中国？ 2009-08-27


Tight gasoline supplies and rising U.S. demand are coming too late to provide much support for flagging oil prices.Crude futures prices have hovered around $70 a barrel since June in anticipation of rising oil demand in the second half of the year as major economies emerge from the economic downturn.The focus rests on the U.S. and China, the world's two biggest oil consumers. While Chinese consumption is often tough to deduce from opaque government statistics, U.S. gasoline demand jumped 4% in the week ended Aug. 28 from a week earlier to a three-month high, according to Energy Department data. The same week, gasoline inventories fell by three million barrels, far more than analysts had expected.But the boost is likely too little, too late, especially because it measured the movement of fuel from refiners to wholesalers ahead of the Labor Day holiday weekend, when many drivers traditionally hit the road. After the holiday, gasoline demand -- and its relevance to the broader oil market -- tends to fade. Cooler weather brings the focus around to heating oil, which is in a historic surplus along with similar fuels like diesel.'The [gasoline] inventory numbers are marginally bullish [for oil prices] . . . but the fact is we're coming to the end of the summer driving season, and it's not a big deal,' said Peter Donovan, vice president at Vantage Trading.U.S. gasoline demand is no small part of the global petroleum puzzle, even in the off season, accounting for more than 10% of world-wide oil consumption. The decline in U.S. gasoline demand following a peak in July 2007 contributed to crude oil's crash from last year's record high of $145.29 a barrel. Analysts say the increase in demand looks especially paltry considering that prices at the pump are down more than $1 from a year ago. On Friday, the retail price for regular gasoline averaged $2.591 a gallon, according to the AAA's Daily Fuel Gauge Report.Enhanced profitability from gasoline sales may undermine efforts to reduce oil-product inventories. Last week's rise in gasoline demand encouraged oil refiners to boost the volumes of crude oil they process. Because refiners don't just produce just one fuel, higher capacity utilization rates could worsen the diesel and heating-oil glut.U.S. distillate inventories stand at 26-year highs, and demand was off 7.3% from a year earlier in the four weeks ended Aug. 28, according to the DOE.Gasoline futures fell 1.65 cents, or 0.9%, to $1.7763 a gallon on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday, capping a 6.5% decline for the week. Year-to-date, they are up 76%, while crude oil futures are 53% higher.What drove gasoline futures was a short-term, seasonal phenomenon. Traders in the physical gasoline market only expect supplies to tighten while refiners make the transition from fuel formulated for summer use to that used in the winter. In the New York Harbor market, summer reformulated gasoline blendstock for delivery two days out fetches a 21-cent premium to the Nymex benchmark gasoline futures contract. Winter gasoline to be delivered by Sept. 20 fetches a premium as low as one cent.Brian Baskin