Beijing Is Chinese Stocks' Benefactor

中国最受关注的股票指数在过去两周里已下跌了16%，但分析师说，这并不意味着行情已就此终结，原因主要是中国政府可能并不希望如此。预计中国股市将得益于依然充裕的流动性经济数据可能好转──尽管速度或许会放缓以及政府可能出台的提振市场的举措。随着10月1日建国60周年大庆的到来，政府可能希望股市能有不错的走势。10月1日之后的前景不太明朗，但从历史和目前宽松的货币政策来看，许多分析师认为，北京可能只会逐步给股市降温。更为发达市场上的投资者一般将A股市场作为对中国经济所持信心的风向标，因此上证综合指数周一重挫5.8%令全球都感到恐慌。申银万国(Shenyin & Wanguo Securities)的分析师李念说，没有任何未知或未曾预料的因素导了致近期市场的暴跌，因此最有说服力的解释就是技术调整。他预计上证综合指数不会跌破2500点。周二，上证综合指数上涨1.4%，收于2910.88点。但股市的涨跌不见得能反映出国内投资者对中国经济的短期看法。中国的分析师说，流动性和政策因素一直是这个本应有所调整的市场的主要推动力。在近期下跌前，上证综合指数一直在持续上涨：8月4日创出了3478.01点的年内高点。即使经过了最近的调整，该指数仍较上年1664.93点的低点上涨了75%。A股市场目前基于2009年预期收益的市盈率约为25倍。中国股市的历史市盈率基本处于10多倍到60倍之间。这显示股市仍有进一步调整的空间，但幅度可能不会太大，调整时间也不会太长。国元证券(Guoyuan Securities)的策略师王骁敏(Simon Wang)说，股市将在10月1日前出现反弹。他认为上证综合指数将在2600点获得支撑。他说，对政府不会让市场在10月1日前下跌的普遍看法将成为一种自我实现的预言。历史走势也可以对判断上证综合指数的方向提供借鉴：今年的上涨与往年没有什么不同。海通证券(Haitong Securities)的分析师张崎说，以2007年的反弹为例。担心出现通胀是大量资金流入股市的原因之一。充裕的流动性抬高了股价。在这种情况下，政府很快对股市出台了严格的措施，此后市场又受到了全球次贷危机的打击，最终导致上证综合指数从2007年10月的历史高点重挫了73%。张崎说，如果政府下一次真的要出台政策遏制失去控制的上涨，鉴于上一次的经验教训，我认为它将会更加谨小慎微。Michelle Ng相关阅读中国政府会为“十一”救股市？ 2009-08-18中国创业板市场前景光明？ 2009-08-17尚福林：股市走势与经济基本面基本吻合 2009-08-14


China's most-watched share index has tumbled 16% over the past two weeks, but analysts say this doesn't mean the party is over, largely because Beijing probably doesn't want it to be.The stock market is expected to benefit from still-flush liquidity, a likely improvement -- albeit at potentially a slower pace -- in economic readings, and possible market-supportive moves from Beijing. With the 60th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party's rule on Oct. 1, officials will likely want the stock market to be in good shape.The outlook is less clear beyond Oct. 1, but going by history and the current loose monetary-policy settings, many analysts say Beijing is likely to only gradually let the air out of the market.Investors in more-developed markets tend to use the Class A share market as a proxy for sentiment on the health of China's economy, so Monday's 5.8% slump in the Shanghai Composite Index sent jitters around the globe. Class A shares are yuan-denominated shares of Chinese companies listed on mainland exchanges.'None of the factors that we can blame the market's recent steep losses on are unknown or unanticipated. The most plausible explanation is therefore a technical correction,' said Shenyin & Wanguo Securities analyst Neil Li, who doesn't expect the Shanghai Composite Index to fall below 2500. On Tuesday, it gained 1.4% to 2910.88.But the stock market's ups and downs don't necessarily reflect domestic investors' short-term view on China's economy. Analysts in China say liquidity and policy cues are the main drivers for a market that has been due a breather.Before the recent slide, the index had been on a tear: It hit this year's high of 3478.01 on Aug. 4. Even taking the recent correction into account, it is up 75% from last year's lowest point of 1664.93.Class A shares are trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of around 25 times their forecast 2009 earnings. P/E ratios in China have historically ranged from slightly over 10 to as much as 60. That suggests room to correct further, but perhaps not far, or for long.Guoyuan Securities strategist Simon Wang, who pegs support at 2600 for the Shanghai Composite, says shares will rebound before Oct. 1. 'The widespread belief that Beijing doesn't want the markets to fall before Oct. 1 will become a self-fulfilling prophecy,' he said.History may also be a guide as to the Shanghai index's direction: This year's rise isn't dissimilar to previous jumps.'Take the 2007 rally,' said Haitong Securities analyst Zhang Qi. 'Fear of inflation played a part in channeling people's money into stocks. Ample liquidity propped up price levels.'In that case, Beijing imposed tightening measures too quickly on a market that was then hit by the global subprime-mortgage crisis, eventually driving the Shanghai index down 73% from its record in October 2007 to 2008's low.'If Beijing does put forward policies to curb an out-of-control rally the next time round,' Mr. Zhang said, 'I think it will proceed more slowly and carefully, given the last experience.'Michelle Ng