China Hungers For Coal

中国作为煤炭出口国的地位正在下降，煤炭是中国国家能源安全的另一层保障。北京已注意到了这点。相当于战略煤炭储备的计划已经初见端倪。中国的经济规划部门已委托国有中国神华能源(China Shenhua Energy)建设10个煤炭储备基地。Bloomberg News/Landov澳大利亚的煤矿这种趋势对中国在海外争夺资源公司，以保障供应提供了更多动力；上周兖州煤业(Yanzhou Coal Mining)竞购澳大利亚矿业公司Felix Resources就是明证。此类举措是对中国正在日益依赖其它国家的煤炭所作出的反应。今年6月，中国煤炭进口量达到了1,610万吨，几乎是去年同期的五倍。与此同时，出口量下降了84%，至110万吨。总体而言，中国上半年的煤炭进口量比上年同期增长了20%。IHS McCloskey的主管编辑豪兰德(John Howland)指出，中国的需求对支撑今年炼焦煤和燃煤的国际价格至关重要。过去一年里，煤价一直在下降，但他说，如果不是中国进口的增加，这两个市场可能已经历了“大屠杀”。这种需求对中国的主要煤炭供应国，如澳大利亚印尼越南和俄罗斯而言也是一个福音。有理由认为，这种好处可能不会持续太久。最近几个月进口的迅速增长可能反映了建立库存的过程。今年国际煤价和运费的下降让一些中国煤炭用户的进口价格甚至要低于国内的采购价格。这些趋势在夏季时已经改变了。但长期趋势仍表明，中国正在成为煤炭净进口国。尽管中国拥有丰富的储藏──根据英国石油公司(BP)的数据，还足以再满足40年的需要──但需求正在超过供给。这就需要大大加快煤炭开采速度，以满足需求的增长。煤炭提供了中国所需能源的70%。中国的煤矿所在地往往远离能源使用大户。通过海路进口煤炭往往更容易，也更便宜。中国运输基础设施的改善可以抵消这种趋势。中国甚至可能有机会减少使用高污染的煤炭作为能源。但是，这一切都需要时间。中国的巨大胃口对煤炭市场的影响可能因另一个新兴巨头印度的需求而加剧。如果全球经济继续复苏，煤炭生产商将从价格上涨和中国争夺能源供应的可能性中受益匪浅。Andrew Peaple相关阅读中国企业海外“抢”资源 2009-06-01山西屯兰矿难或导致中国煤炭产量下降 2009-02-24中国可能削减煤炭产量 2008-11-26日本电力企业将承担中国煤炭出口关税成本 2008-10-02 本文涉及股票或公司document.write (truthmeter('2009年08月21日11:35', '600188.SH'));兖州煤业股份有限公司（简称：兖州煤业）英文名称：Yanzhou Coal Mining Co.总部地点：中国大陆上市地点：上海证交所股票代码：600188document.write (truthmeter('2009年08月21日11:35', '1171.HK'));兖州煤业股份有限公司（简称：兖州煤业股份）英文名称：Yanzhou Coal Mining Co.总部地点：中国大陆上市地点：香港交易所股票代码：1171document.write (truthmeter('2009年08月21日11:35', 'YZC'));兖州煤业股份有限公司（简称：兖州煤业)英文名称：Yanzhou Coal Mining Co. (ADS)总部地点：中国大陆上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：YZCdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年08月21日11:35', 'FLX.AU'));Felix Resources Ltd.总部地点：澳大利亚(Australia)上市地点：澳大利亚证券交易所股票代码：FLX


China's status as a coal exporter is slipping away, and with it another layer of the country's energy security blanket.Beijing has taken heed. Plans for what's effectively a strategic coal reserve are emerging. The country's economic planning agency has asked state-owned China Shenhua Energy to build 10 coal storage sites.The trend is providing more stimulus for Chinese efforts to snap up resources companies overseas, thereby ensuring supply; witness last week's bid by Yanzhou Coal Mining for Australian miner Felix Resources.Such moves are a response to the rapid pace at which China is set to become reliant on other countries for coal. In June, coal imports reached 16.1 million metric tons, a nearly fivefold increase from the same month a year earlier. Exports, meanwhile, fell 84% to 1.1 million metric tons. In total, China's coal imports were up 20% in the first half from a year earlier.John Howland, managing editor at IHS McCloskey, points out that China's demand has been crucial in putting a floor under international prices for both coking coal and thermal coal this year. Coal prices have been falling over the past year, but both markets would likely have experienced a 'bloodbath' without China's increased imports, he said.That demand has been a boon, too, for China's major coal suppliers, particularly Australia, Indonesia, Vietnam and Russia.There are reasons to think that the full benefit mightn't last. The rapid jump in imports in recent months could reflect stockpiling. And low international coal prices and freight rates this year have made it cheaper for some Chinese coal users to import rather than source their needs at home. Those trends have reversed over the summer.But longer-term trends still suggest China is heading toward becoming a net importer of coal. Even though the country has substantial reserves -- enough to meet its needs for another four decades, according to data from BP -- demand is outstripping supply. It would need a marked acceleration in extraction to keep up with demands.Coal provides 70% of the country's energy. Chinese coal mines are often located far from big users of energy. Importing coal by sea is often easier and cheaper.Improvements in China's transport infrastructure could offset that trend. And there is even a chance that China may reduce the use of 'dirty' coal for energy.But that all takes time. The impact on the coal market of China's hunger could be exacerbated by demand from another emerging giant, India. If a global economic recovery takes hold, coal producers will reap the benefits through higher prices and the chance of China making bids to secure supply.Andrew Peaple