Confidence Rekindles In Credit Mkts

对于欧洲信贷市场来讲，4月份远称不上是最为严酷的一个月。相反，有许多的新证据显示，市场正在恢复信心。公司债仍在消化极为严重的经济衰退带来的影响，但却已走出低谷，至少目前是这样。尽管还存在风险，但信贷投资者正越来越多的关注应该买进哪些资产，而非担心应该出售哪些资产。这是一项进步。四条利好消息显示风险偏好发生了重大转变。首先，流动性正重返风险较高的投资级公司债券市场，从而降低了大型公司无法将债务展期的可能性。荷兰国际集团(ING)称，4月份以欧元计价的公司债主要由投资级中评级最低的BBB级公司发行，这是1年多以来的第一次。今年早些时候，只有评级较高的公用事业能源和电信公司新发行的公司债才有销路。其次，公司债的风险溢价也持续收窄，从而令公司融资成本有望下降。据美林(Merrill Lynch)公布的数据显示，欧元区非金融公司债风险溢价4月份收窄了0.4个百分点，创下了今年以来的最大月度降幅，反映出二级市场需求的不断增长。第三，据法国兴业银行(Societe Generale)称，欧洲各银行4月份发行了190亿欧元（合251.4亿美元）无政府担保的债券，和在政府担保下发行的232亿欧元债券规模几乎相当。这令有担保债券和无担保债券的比例缩小为1.2倍，较3月份的3.2倍和2月份的7.9倍有所改善。第四，iTraxx欧洲CDS指数和其成分合约之差4月底也已恢复至较为正常的水平，仅为0.04个百分点。这创下了雷曼兄弟控股公司(Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.)破产以来的最低水平，此前数月一直在0.2-0.6个百分点区间内波动。上述现象表明，市场存在融资套利交易兴趣，而在状况恶劣的情况下，没有人有时间进行这种交易，除此之外，这还意味着iTraxx欧洲CDS指数作为对冲工具的作用将会加强。当然，市场完全恢复正常还需时日。欧洲的高收益市场仍处于冻结状态，表明风险偏好有限。风险溢价水平表明仍存在前所未有的违约水平。许多银行仍依靠担保来融资。一旦出现新的波动，则4月份的积极走势就可能会全盘尽失。此外，毋庸置疑，即使信贷市场最终的确恢复了正常，也不会像危机爆发之前那样繁荣。Richard Barley 相关阅读美元需求持续高涨 信贷市场依旧脆弱 2009-05-04俄罗斯信贷市场尚未完全转暖 2009-04-06信贷市场仍对银行业心存疑虑 2009-04-02欧洲黯淡前景威胁全球复苏 2009-04-23担忧情绪令信贷市场再度趋紧 2009-03-09 本文涉及股票或公司document.write (truthmeter('2009年05月04日14:26', 'WFC'));富国银行英文名称：Wells Fargo & Co.总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：WFCdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年05月04日14:26', 'VIAB'));维亚康姆英文名称：Viacom Inc. (Cl B)总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：VIABdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年05月04日14:26', 'VIA'));维亚康姆英文名称：Viacom Inc. (Cl A)总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：VIAdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年05月04日14:26', 'BAC'));美国银行英文名称：Bank of America Co.总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：BAC


April was far from the cruelest month for European credit markets. Instead, there was plenty of new evidence that confidence is returning. Corporate bonds are still priced for an extremely nasty recession, but the Armageddon trade is off, for now at least. Although risks remain, credit investors are increasingly worrying about what they should buy, rather than what they should sell. That is progress. Four pieces of good news point to a significant change in risk appetite. First, liquidity is returning to the riskier end of the investment-grade corporate bond market, reducing the possibility that large companies won't be able to roll over their funding. April was the first month in over a year that euro-denominated issuance was dominated by triple-B companies, the lowest investment-grade category, according to ING. Earlier this year, only highly rated utility, energy and telecommunications companies were able to get new issues away. Second, corporate bond spreads have continued to tighten, raising the prospect of lower funding costs for companies. Euro nonfinancial corporate bond spreads tightened 0.4 percentage point in April, according to Merrill Lynch data. That is the biggest monthly gain so far this year, reflecting increasing demand in the secondary market, too. Third, European banks were able to issue 19 billion euros ($25.14 billion) of debt without government guarantees in April -- almost matching government-guaranteed sales of 23.2 billion euros, according to Societe Generale. That gives a much better ratio of 1.2 times guaranteed debt to unguaranteed debt versus March's 3.2 times and February's 7.9 times. Fourth, the so-called iTraxx Europe skew -- the difference between the spread on the credit derivatives index and its components -- has moved back at the end of April into more normal territory at just 0.04 percentage point. It is the lowest since the collapse of Lehman Brothers, after ranging between 0.6 and 0.2 percentage point for months. That suggests that there is interest in arbitrage trades -- something that few had time for as the world seemed about to melt down -- and it means that the index will be more useful as a hedging tool. Of course, there is still some way to go before full normality returns. The high-yield market in Europe is still frozen, meaning there are limits to risk appetite. Spread levels still imply unprecedented defaults. Many banks remain dependent on guarantees for funding. A fresh shock could undo all of April's positive moves. And, of course, even when 'normality' does eventually return, it won't feel anything like the exuberance that ruled credit markets before the crisis. Richard Barley