China's Yuan Ambitions

Ben Simpfendorfer中国正越来越多地参与商讨解决当前经济问题的对策。讨论大部分是围绕着钱的问题──无论是温家宝总理对中国持有的美国国债价值的担忧，还是中国央行提出的以超主权储备货币取代美元的国际货币体系。到目前为止，制约中国向全球货币改革贡献力量的一大因素一直是中国自身的货币政策，特别是人民币不可自由兑换的事实。不过，现在有初步迹象显示情况正在开始发生变化。北京与六个国家和地区的央行签订了货币互换协议，包括香港印度尼西亚韩国马来西亚白俄罗斯，最近的一个是阿根廷。根据协议，这些央行可以向希望购买中国商品的本地进口商出售人民币。这对因金融危机而难以获得贸易融资的进口商尤其有好处。同样，这也与中国希望参与二十国集团支撑贸易融资的努力的愿望相一致。中国早就希望人民币能在全球金融体系中扮演更重要的角色。这些货币互换协议正是在这样一个政策目标的大背景下产生的。这个更广泛的政策目标对降低中国出口企业的外汇风险敞口和交易成本则有着更为现实的作用。2008年初人民币兑美元汇率升值是一些中国出口企业破产的原因之一。以人民币进行贸易结算将会在未来降低这类风险。当然，不应该把货币互换与人民币完全自由兑换混为一谈。虽然公布的具体细节很少，但是看起来人民币不能用来兑换其他货币，特别是美元。这些国家也不能把人民币当作外汇储备的一部分来保护本国货币，这和最近好几个国家与美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)签署的货币互换协议不同。从很大程度上讲，这是因为人民币不能完全自由兑换。香港仍是唯一一个可以开人民币储蓄帐户的地方，但即使是在那里每日的存款和取款额度也是有限制的。然而，尽管货币互换协议并不意味着完全自由兑换，却是朝着自由兑换迈出的重要一步。更可喜的是，近几个月来中国有关部门看来已经加快了改革的步伐，暗示部分自由兑换（特别是在中国和其主要地区性贸易伙伴之间）的前景可能比很多人认为的来得要快。中国国务院去年12月宣布，有意允许特定省份的企业用人民币结算与特定贸易伙伴的国际贸易相关交易。广东省可以与香港和澳门用人民币结算，广西和云南则可以与东盟国家用人民币结算。这些都是试点方案，还尚未启动，而且也不清楚它们会和已经实施的货币互换协议在实际应用上有何不同。香港针对人民币自由兑换的试验将是最值得关注的。中国倾向于把香港作为金融改革的试验田。有鉴于此，国务院对香港人民币结算试点方案的澄清（预计很快就会公布），以及香港企业界对此做出的反应，将能很好地代表世界其他地方可以预期的结果。人民币向全球货币的转型已经开始。这不会是一朝一夕就可以实现的转变，不过却可能比预计的要快。经济危机为中国提供了机会，它可以利用自己的相对稳定和贸易顺差国家的地位在全球范围向贸易逆差国家提供人民币信贷。（编者按：本文作者现任苏格兰皇家银行中国区首席经济学家。）相关阅读人民币走向世界尚需时日 2009-04-01人民币会成为下一个全球储备货币？ 2009-03-27中国的强势人民币何去何从 2009-03-20


Ben Simpfendorfer(Ediotr's Note: Mr. Simpfendorfer is the chief China economist at Royal Bank of Scotland.)China is playing a growing role in discussions over solutions to current economic problems. Much of the talk has focused on money -- whether Premier Wen Jiabao's concerns about the value of China's U.S. treasury investments, or the People's Bank of China's paper floating the idea of a de-dollarized international monetary system. Up to now, one limit to China's ability to contribute to global monetary reform has been its own currency policy, particularly the fact that the yuan is not convertible. However, now there are tentative signs that's starting to change.Beijing has signed currency swap agreements with six central banks: Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Belarus and most recently Argentina. These swaps permit those central banks to sell yuan to local importers in those countries who want to buy Chinese goods. This is particularly useful for importers struggling to obtain trade finance as a result of the financial crisis. As such, it's consistent with China's desire to participate in the Group of 20's efforts to support trade financing.China has long wanted its currency to play a more important role in the global financial system. These swap arrangements come in the context of that broader policy aim. The broader policy goal also has a more practical function in reducing currency exposure and transaction costs for Chinese exporters. The rise in the yuan's value relative to the dollar in early 2008 was a reason why some Chinese exporters went bankrupt. The ability to settle trade in yuan would reduce this risk in the future.Certainly the swaps should not be mistaken for full yuan convertibility. Details are scarce, but it appears the yuan cannot be sold for other currencies, in particular, the dollar. Neither can they be used by the other countries as part of their reserves to defend their own currencies, unlike the recent swap agreements several countries have signed with the United States Federal Reserve. In large part this is because the yuan is not fully convertible. Hong Kong remains the only place where it is possible to open yuan deposit accounts, and even there daily deposits and withdrawals are capped.Yet while the swap arrangements do not signal full convertibility, they are an important step in that direction. Even better, the Chinese authorities appear to have accelerated the reform schedule in recent months to suggest that the prospect of partial convertibility, especially between China and its major regional trading partners, may be closer than many believe.China's State Council announced its intention in December to permit businesses in specific provinces to settle international trade-related transactions in yuan with specific trading partners. Guangdong province can settle in yuan with Hong Kong and Macau, while Guangxi and Yunnan provinces can settle in yuan with members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.These are trial schemes that have yet to start, and it is still unclear how they will differ in practice from the swap agreements already in place. Hong Kong's experiments with yuan convertibility will be the most important to watch. China has a tendency to use the territory as a laboratory for financial reforms. So, the State Council's clarification on the yuan-settlement trial scheme in Hong Kong, expected soon, and the response of Hong Kong's business community, will be a good indicator of what the rest of the world can expect.The transformation of the yuan into a global currency has begun. It will not be an overnight change, but the change may take place faster than expected. The economic crisis has provided China with a window of opportunity to leverage its relative stability and status as a trade surplus country to extend yuan credit to deficit countries globally.