US Frugality Has Potential To Outlast Recession

面对工作安全感下降住房贬值股票投资缩水的局面，美国人开始增加储蓄了。但是，当这波衰退过去，他们还会这么节俭吗？没人确切知道几年后的情况，不过，我们有充分理由相信，下一个10年，美国人会比上一个10年更节省。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的经济学家伯纳(Richard Berner)说，“很难相信我们会再回到上一个10年那种轻松获得贷款花钱大手大脚的日子。”他预计，未来几年，经过通货膨胀调整后的消费支出年增幅将在2%-2.5%之间，而截至2007年的10年间，这个数字是3.5%。对零售商餐馆和奢侈品制造商等依赖美国消费者的行业来说，这可不是什么好消息。不过，它也可能让世界经济部分恢复平衡──许多经济学家认为，世界经济太过依赖美国人依靠借债进行的消费，以及新兴市场国家喜欢攒下钱借给别人的习惯。今年45岁的贝利(David Bailey)和妻子及三个小孩住在爱达荷州博伊斯。身为小企业主的他和很多人一样，过了好几年富足的生活，但随着住房市场然后是整体经济陷入崩溃，他落得一身债务，公司也没了收入。他的公司Bailey Engineering专门从事将原始土地平整成分割好的小地块。这家公司已经有好几个月没有分文收入了。他手下原来的16名员工已减到不足10人。由于房地产投资出现大笔亏损，他卖掉了自己10年前建造的一处度假屋，并将另一处房产卖给了现在的租客。他还卖掉了自己的SUV车（这样可省下每月800美元的供款），换了辆用现金购买的二手小货车。“我只想彻底摆脱债务，”他说，“在这方面我已经彻底变了。现在我只想赚到足够我自己和家人享受生活的钱。我不会再为变成富人而拼命。”信用卡公司Discover名为U.S. Spending Monitor的消费者开支调查显示，贝利的情况并非个例。在3月份进行的这项调查中，大约35%的受访消费者表示，他们计划未来6个月内降低债务水平。三分之一的受访者表示，他们已经这么做了，虽然他们认为经济前景已有所改善。调查结果将在4月8日公布。三分之一的受访者称，他们将把压缩下来的偿债支出转为储蓄。据美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)的数字，2000-2007年期间，美国家庭未偿还贷款余额增长了一倍，达到13.8万亿美元，而去年他们减少了贷款余额总量，这在二战以来还是第一次。但是，这种情况能持续吗？商业咨询公司AlixPartners所做的调查发现，美国人计划，衰退结束后将把14%的收入用于储蓄。该公司首席执行长克劳福德(Fred Crawford)说，即使这个数字因为人们目前的情绪而有所夸大，企业还是必须为可能新出现的“正常情况”预作准备。三分之二的受访者表示，他们计划将来减少用于购物的开支，而有超过半数受访者表示，将购买不那么昂贵的物品。当然，调查结果显示的情况可能会与实际情况有很大出入。耶鲁大学消费者研究机构Center for Customer Insights的主任达尔(Ravi Dhar)说，“如果你问他们下个月或明年会拿出多少钱来储蓄，你总会得到比较乐观的回答。就像吸烟的人总爱说，'明年我打算戒烟'一样。”但是，考虑到这次经济下滑的严重性衰退以来接近13万亿美元的损失，以及对资本主义制度的信心受到的打击，推动美国人提高节俭意愿的力量会比以往更大。达尔说，“这里有一种传染效应”，就像发生空难后乘飞机旅行的人会减少，或者经历过大萧条的人会将保存锡纸的习惯坚持几十年一样。他说，灾难持续的时间越长，其对人们长期行为的影响就越大。而对一些消费者来说，与几年前次级抵押贷款盛行时相比，未来10年他们获得贷款的难度预计会加大。还有一个因素加大了美国人未来增加储蓄的压力，那就是他们的退休福利在缩水，而且他们认识到，不能指望不断上升的房价和一直走高的股市为他们提供养老钱了。据华盛顿雇员福利研究机构Employee Benefit Research Institute的数据，美国人的401(k)帐户去年损失了大约6,030亿美元，相当于帐户总金额的五分之一。一些企业正在重新给自身定位，以因应消费者节省开支的现实。Target Corp.负责销售规划的执行副总裁Kathryn Tesija最近在一次投资者电话会议上说，当前的经济形势给人们的购物习惯带来了根本变化，公司正将更多货架留给食品保健产品婴儿用品等必需品。她还提请投资者对该公司的低价特点予以关注。“如果这些日用必需品定价不合理，顾客就不会再来我们这里了，”她说。美国消费者通常是很有伸缩性的，他们或许还会重拾以前的老习惯。但本世纪头几年的信贷热结局是如此悲惨，令人不堪回首的记忆或许能影响消费者未来数年的态度。Kelly Evans相关阅读美国消费者节俭的两难处境 2009-02-04美国家庭终于开始存钱 2009-01-06节俭意味着美德，还是等同于寒酸？ 2008-12-26炫耀性消费10大关键词 2008-12-12


With their jobs less secure, their houses worth less and their stock-market portfolios shrunken, Americans are saving more now. But will they still be thrifty when the recession ends?No one will know for sure for years, but there's good reason to believe Americans will be saving more in the next decade than they did in the last one. 'It's hard to believe we're ever going back to the easy credit and free spending of the last 10 years,' said economist Richard Berner of Morgan Stanley. He predicts consumer spending will grow at an inflation-adjusted 2% to 2.5% annual rate over the next several years, compared with 3.5% in the decade ended in 2007.That means trouble for retailers, restaurants and luxury-goods makers that rely on U.S. consumers. But it could also restore some balance to a world economy that has relied -- too much, many economists say -- on Americans' debt-fueled spending and emerging markets' willingness to save and lend.David Bailey, 45 years old, who lives in Boise, Idaho, with his wife and three young children, is like many who enjoyed several prosperous years as a small-business owner until the housing market -- and then the broader economy -- collapsed, leaving him saddled with debt but no income. His company, Bailey Engineering, which turns raw land into subdivision plots, hasn't generated any income in months. He has cut his staff of 16 to a handful. Faced with a massive loss in his real-estate investments, he has sold a vacation home he built himself a decade ago and is selling another property to its current renters. He has sold his SUV to eliminate its $800 monthly payment and replaced it with a used minivan he bought with cash.'I just want to get totally debt-free,' he said. 'I've completely changed in that regard. At this point I just want to make enough money to enjoy myself and my family -- I'm not trying to get rich anymore,' he said.A U.S. Spending Monitor survey by Discover, the credit-card company, to be released Wednesday, suggests Mr. Bailey isn't alone. About 35% of consumers surveyed in March said they expect to reduce their debt levels over the next six months, and a third said they have already done so -- even though their outlook on the economy has improved. One in three said they would put the money freed up by lower loan payments into savings. After doubling their outstanding debt between 2000 and 2007 to $13.8 trillion, U.S. households last year reduced their total debt outstanding for the first time since World War II, according to the Federal Reserve.But will it last? A survey by AlixPartners, a business-advisory firm, found Americans plan to save 14% of their total earnings once the recession ends. Fred Crawford, the group's chief executive, said even if that number is 'inflated by the emotions of the day,' companies must 'understand and plan for what could be a 'new normal.'' Two-thirds of those surveyed said they plan to buy less in the future, while more than half plan to buy less-expensive things.Surveys can be lousy predictors, of course. 'If you ask people how much they're going to save next month or next year you always get optimistic answers,' said Ravi Dhar, director of Yale's Center for Customer Insights. 'The same way smokers always say 'next year I'm going to stop.''But the severity of this downturn, the nearly $13 trillion loss of wealth since the recession began and the shaken confidence in the capitalist system is prompting a more powerful move toward frugality than usual. 'It's the contagion effect,' Mr. Dhar says, the same reaction that makes people travel less after a plane crash, or those who lived through the Great Depression conserve tin foil for decades. 'The longer this lasts, the more it will have an impact on people's long-term behavior,' he said. On top of that, getting credit is likely to be tougher for some consumers in the next decade than it was during the subprime-lending boom of just a few years ago.Adding to the pressure on Americans to save more in the future is the shrinking size of their retirement nest eggs -- and the realization that they can't count on constantly climbing home prices and an ever-rising stock market to finance their retirement. Americans lost a fifth of the value of their 401(k) retirement accounts -- some $603 billion -- last year, according to the Employee Benefit Research Institute in Washington.Some companies are already repositioning themselves for a more frugal consumer. 'The current economic conditions have created a fundamental shift in shopping behavior,' Kathryn Tesija, Target Corp.'s executive vice president of merchandising, said in a recent conference call with investors. 'We are allocating more shelf space to nondiscretionary categories' like food, health care and baby products, she said, and drawing attention to the store's low prices. 'Guests won't come to us for everyday necessities if those necessities aren't priced right.'American consumers are traditionally resilient, and may yet return to their old ways. But the borrowing boom of the early 2000s ended badly, and the searing memories may shape consumer attitudes for years.Kelly Evans