China's Overcapacity Dilemma

一些企业高管和经济学家说，中国政府在经济上的巨额投资可能会加剧从钢铁到石化等各行业产能过剩的问题。鉴于中国在全球制造业中举足轻重的地位，闲置工厂的增加可能会加剧世界范围的竞争压力--随着中国工厂将生产过剩的产品销往海外，引发贸易争端。美国和欧洲钢铁企业已经在考虑实施进口限制。中国欧盟商会(European Union Chamber of Commerce in China)主席伍德克(Joerg Wuttke)说，现在中国已经受一些行业的产能过剩困扰。现在增加投资，仅仅为了让一些企业维持下去，有可能会威胁到未来多年的产业基础。他说，中国有关部门看起来低估了产能过剩的严重性，部分原因是他们太专注于促进经济在短期内增长。中国是世界最大的钢铁生产国，也是第三大汽车生产国。钢铁汽车等工业品的供应量超过了国内外的需求。据中国工业和信息化部的数据，截至本月，中国约有30%的铝材20%的水泥和平板玻璃，以及70%的半导体产能是闲置的。中国政府推出的人民币4万亿元（约合5,850亿美元）投资计划试图解决部分产能过剩问题。通过增加公共工程的建设，政府可以增加对钢铁等产品的需求，进而降低闲置产能。不过，由于政策制定者也放宽了银行贷款，并仓促批准石化厂等大型项目的建设，刺激计划最终可能会造成产能增加。中信证券股份有限公司(Citic Securities)驻香港首席全球经济学家胡一帆说，我们认为刺激计划将不可避免地造成一些过剩产能。她说，由于全球市场很可能无法消化这些过剩产能，中国扩大内需的形势会变得更为紧迫。很多分析人士警告说，不要用当前低迷的形势来判断长期产能是否过剩，原因是需求恢复时，一些闲置工厂会重新开工。Barclays Capital经济学家彭文生说，在经济低迷期，几乎肯定会出现供过于求，我认为现在差不多每个国家都存在产能过剩的问题。Reuters工人正在山西太原某钢材市场上工作近年来中国工业的扩张几乎是史无前例的：中国投资占经济总量的比例甚至超过了日本和韩国在工业化颠峰时期的比例。如果中国近年来10%以上的经济增长率继续无限期地持续下去的话，中国的大部分投资或许能解释得通。然而，随着美国消费者增加储蓄减少支出，很多经济学家说，未来数年中国都需要适应出口产品需求低迷的形势。世界银行(World Bank)驻北京经济学家Louis Kuijs说，由于全球经济预计在相当长的时间内会保持疲软，一些制造领域的部分产能可能永远不会完全利用起来，可能必须被削减掉。目前为止，中国几乎还没有采取什么措施来永久性地关闭闲置工厂。尽管一项新的企业破产法已于2007年生效，律师们说，这项法律很少被使用，原因是政府更喜欢协商解决办法，让工人至少保持名义上的就业。除刺激计划外，政府还在推进一系列重工业重组和振兴计划。据中国经济规划主管部门上个月发表的一份声明，这些计划的目标包括，限制产能过剩的行业的扩张，加快淘汰落后产能。尽管尚未公布计划的全部细节，但看起来计划不包括大幅削减产能。举例来讲，截至2008年底，中国粗钢产能达到6.60亿吨，不过产量只有约5亿吨。钢铁产业的计划草案呼吁，2011年前将钢铁产能减少2,500万吨，但这只占了过剩产能的一小部分。中国政府领导人希望帮助大型行业，不关闭这类行业，这是可以理解的；美国也不愿让本国汽车生产商破产。汽车业也是让中国担忧的一个问题。中国的汽车年产能约为1,200万辆，而2008年的销量只有937万辆。据一位了解政府计划的业界高管说，政府的计划鼓励汽车厂商进行并购，但是并没有呼吁降低产能，计划意在巩固大型企业的地位。Andrew Batson相关阅读中国境内外资银行难以扩大贷款规模 2009-03-23中国经济的增长之源 2009-03-16钢铁市场需求变化难以捉摸 2009-03-16中国温家宝：可以随时推出新的刺激计划 2009-03-13中国刺激计划调整 未解决不平衡问题 2009-03-10


The Chinese government's massive investment in the economy could end up increasing excess capacity in industries from steel to petrochemicals, some executives and economists say.Given China's global manufacturing heft, more idle factories could heighten competitive pressure world-wide, sparking trade squabbles as Chinese factories ship surplus products abroad. U.S. and European steelmakers already are looking at import curbs.'China is now already plagued by overcapacity in some industries. To add more investment now, just to get some companies going, might threaten the industrial base years from now,' said Joerg Wuttke, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China. 'Authorities here seem to underestimate the severity of overcapacity,' he said, in part because they are so focused on getting economic growth moving in the short term.China is the world's largest steelmaker and third-largest vehicle maker. The supply of these and other industrial products exceeds demand both at home and abroad. According to China's industry ministry, as of this month about 30% of the nation's aluminum production capacity is idle, as is 20% of cement and plate-glass capacity and 70% of semiconductor production.The Chinese government's four trillion yuan (about $585 billion) investment program attempts to tackle part of the problem. By boosting construction of public works, the government can increase demand for products such as steel, thereby reducing idle capacity. But with policy makers also opening the taps on bank lending and rushing to approve big projects like petrochemical plants, the stimulus could end up adding capacity.'We think it's unavoidable that this stimulus plan will create some excess capacity,' said Hu Yifan, chief global economist for Citic Securities in Hong Kong. That makes it more urgent for China to boost domestic demand, she said, since world markets will likely be unable to absorb the surplus.A number of analysts caution against using current depressed conditions to judge whether there is too much capacity for the longer term, because some idle factories will start up again when demand recovers. 'In an economic downturn, almost by definition, supply exceeds demand,' said Wensheng Peng, economist for Barclays Capital. 'I think almost every economy now has excess capacity.'The expansion of industry in China in recent years is almost unprecedented: It has been investing more as a share of the economy than Japan or South Korea did even at the peak of their industrialization. Much of that investment could perhaps be justified if China's recent run of 10%-plus growth continued indefinitely. But with U.S. consumers saving more and spending less, many economists say China needs to adjust to more subdued demand for its exports for years to come.'With the global economy expected to remain weak for quite a while, some of the capacity in some manufacturing sectors may never be fully used, and may have to be written off,' said Louis Kuijs, an economist in the World Bank's Beijing office.So far there has been little effort in China to permanently shutter unneeded factories. Although a new corporate bankruptcy code took effect in 2007, lawyers say it has seen little use, with the government preferring negotiated solutions that keep workers at least nominally employed.Along with the stimulus, the government is pushing a series of 'restructuring and revitalization' plans for heavy industries. Among the goals of the plans are 'curbing the expansion of industries with excess production capacity, and speeding up the phase-out of backward production capacity,' according to a statement last month from China's economic planning agency.While the plans' complete details haven't yet been made public, they don't seem to include major reductions in capacity. For instance, China's crude steel-making capacity reached 660 million tons at the end of 2008, but production was only about 500 million tons. The draft plan for the steel industry calls for eliminating 25 million tons of capacity by 2011, only a small fraction of the gap.It's understandable that China's political leaders want to help major industries and not close them; witness the reluctance in the U.S. to let auto makers go bankrupt.China also has auto-sector concerns. The country has the capacity to produce about 12 million automobiles a year, but only 9.37 million were sold in 2008. The government's plan encourages mergers among auto makers but doesn't call for reducing capacity and is intended to consolidate the positions of major firms, according to an industry executive briefed on its contents.Andrew Batson