Will Good News Follow Bad?

正在寻找股市触底迹象的投资者眼下再次对美国银行类股产生了浓厚兴趣。他们的理由是：当初是金融股把市场拉下水的，现在可能也会是金融股把市场拉回来。即使股价和市值在不断缩水，但金融类股一直在引领市场涨跌。当市场脱离3月9日低点的时候，标普500指数里的金融股上涨了31%，当时标普500指数上涨了近14%。类似情形在去年11月底的那波上涨行情中也很明显。自2007年10月市场创下历史高点至今，标普金融类股下跌了77%，将标普500指数拉低近51%。本世纪初的熊市期间，股市大盘中科技股也出现了同样情况。那期间，标普500指数从波峰到波谷下跌了49%，其中科技股下跌了82%。而在之后市场上升期间，科技股的表现也是好于大盘：2002年10月市场触底一年之后，科技股飙升78%，而标普500指数的涨幅是34%。Getty Images摩根大通纽约总部明尼苏达基金公司First American Funds证券部负责人查鲁布尼克(David Chalupnik)认为一些资产状况稳健的金融类股“有巨大价值”，他正在其基金中增持金融类股。First American旗下管理着720亿美元资产。过去两周，First American将其总资产的大约5%投入了他们认为更具“周期性”（即对经济起落比较敏感）的股票，比如金融类股。First American买进名单上的银行股包括摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.)Northern Trust和Comerica。摩根大通过去12个月来股价下跌了近一半，但查鲁布尼克认为，该股未来两年或许有可能增长一倍。“问题只是需要多长时间，”他说。他说，“当市场出现可观的上涨行情时，是金融股领涨了这股走势”。“如果金融股没有走高，大盘也会有上涨，但不会撑很久。”市场近期的涨势始于花旗(Citigroup)首席执行长潘伟迪(Vikram Pandit)表示银行今年头两个月实现了盈利。随后，摩根大通董事长兼首席执行长戴蒙(James Dimon)和美国银行(Bank of America)首席执行长刘易斯(Kenneth Lewis)先后发表类似言论，进一步推动了这股涨势。而金融股的上扬一方面与市场人气有关，同样也与其权重有关：比如，据Birinyi Associates的数据，金融股目前在标普500指数中的权重是10.3%，而一年前是17.7%。Bank of America Merrill Lynch国际策略师哈特奈特(Michael Hartnett)说，自从去年9月雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers Holdings)申请破产后，银行股和其他资产类型的关联性大大加强。当时，由于投资者都想逃出市场，各个类股都在下跌。哈特奈特说，“从那时起，市场开始受银行股走势的左右。”一些基金公司开始放心地买进金融股，因为他们相信政府旨在稳定金融业的相关刺激计划将收到成效。这些计划包括财政部长盖特纳(Timothy Geithner)提出的成立公私合伙机构清除银行问题资产的计划联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)购买3,000亿美元美国国债资产的举措等。Lord Abbett旗下基金Large Cap Core Fund的合伙人兼主管弗兰斯卡内利(Dan Frascarelli)说，一旦财政部的问题资产救助计划开始实施，银行股将会走强。Large Cap管理着10亿美元资产，目前小幅增持了金融股，改变了之前6个月的减持立场。弗兰斯卡内利说，“银行业的形势将会好转，你要抓紧，”不过，要精确预测这种情况何时发生也很难。近几个月来，银行业的基本业务盈利情况在改善，这一点很有帮助。现在银行可以以极低利率借到资金，同时对向银行借款的人收取较高利息，这使银行能获得不错的利润率。如果承销业务增加，手续费收入也将增多。现在，投资者对市盈率等传统评估指标不再那么依赖，而是更关注诸如金融业最终将反弹股市上涨将提前到来等基本观点。弗兰斯卡内利说，他增持了高盛(Goldman Sachs)摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)T. Rowe Price和其他一些“处于较好的资本市场环境之下的”金融公司的股票。不过，他没去碰花旗，还减持了美国银行的股票。他预计，如果一些状况较差的银行接受政府更多的资金，则持有这些银行普通股的投资者可能会面临股权稀释。First American的查鲁布尼克还担心有潜在的“地雷”。他说，金融类企业和上市公司总体一季度的盈利情况可能远低于预期，而这一点还没充分反映到股价里。还有许多基金公司目前仍对金融股或一般股票退避三舍。Bank of America Merrill Lynch三月初的一项投资者调查显示，虽然对全球经济的悲观情绪正在消退，但许多投资者仍不愿重返股市。市场上的现金头寸仍在增加。Bank of America Merrill Lynch的哈特奈特说，这些趋势当中有些势必很快发生变化，“要么是预期发生翻转，要么是投资者风险承受意愿增大。”一些投资者对所谓金融类股必将重振大盘的说法表示怀疑。Johnson Research Group首席投资策略师约翰逊(Chris Johnson)说，“有人认为应该可以买进了……但我恐怕不能苟同这一点。”他说，“鉴于市场遭受的巨大损害，即使我们能看到一两个季度实现盈利，它们的资产负债状况仍成问题。我们不会回到融资市场一片繁荣的好日子。”约翰逊将金融类股与本世纪头几年推动市场创下高点的半导体类股做了类比。半导体类股的价格最终出现跳水，而且再也没能回到从前的水平。据FactSet Research Systems的数据，英特尔公司(Intel Corp.)曾于2000年8月创下74.88美元的高点，周五该股收于14.65美元，远低于这个高点。Annelena Lobb相关阅读珍爱资金 远离金融黑洞 2009-03-11


Investors looking for signs the stock market has bottomed are again obsessed with the nation's battered banks. Their reasoning: Financial stocks led the market down and will likely lead it back up.Even with their shrinking share prices and market capitalizations, financials have led the market around by the nose. The rally off the March 9 lows has seen financials in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index rise 31%, while the index is up almost 14%. A similar pattern took hold during a late-November rally.Since the market's highs in October 2007, the S&P's financial sector has plunged 77%, dragging down the S&P 500 by nearly 51%.Parallels can be found in the performance of technology stocks in the bear market at the start of this decade. From peak to trough, the S&P 500 fell 49% and its tech stocks tumbled 82%. They also outperformed the index on the way up: A year after the October 2002 bottom, technology stocks had rallied 78% and the S&P 500 was up 34%.Observing what he sees as 'tremendous value' in financial stocks with strong balance sheets, David Chalupnik, head of equities at First American Funds, is adding more financial stocks to the Minneapolis firm's holdings.In the past two weeks, First American, with $72 billion under management, has moved about 5% of its overall portfolio into sectors considered more 'cyclical,' or sensitive to the economy's ups and downs, such as financial stocks. The banks on the shopping list include J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Northern Trust and Comerica.J.P. Morgan has lost about half its value in the past 12 months, but Mr. Chalupnik says it has the potential to double over perhaps the next two years. 'The question is how long it takes,' he says.'When the market has had good rallies, financials have led the charge,' Mr. Chalupnik says. 'You can have a rally without financials, but it won't hold.'The market's recent gains began after Citigroup Chief Executive Vikram Pandit said the bank was profitable in January and February. The rally took hold when J.P. Morgan Chairman and CEO James Dimon weighed in with similar comments, followed by Kenneth Lewis, chairman and CEO of Bank of America.The gains in financials may have as much to do with sentiment as size: Financials make up 10.3% of the S&P 500, down from 17.7% a year ago, according to Birinyi Associates.The link between bank stocks and other asset classes rose significantly after the September bankruptcy filing of the investment bank Lehman Brothers Holdings, says Michael Hartnett, international strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. At that point, prices across asset classes fell as investors simultaneously rushed to the door.'Since then, the market has been at the mercy of the banks,' Mr. Hartnett says.Some money managers are starting to ease back into financial stocks because of optimism about government stimulus packages aimed at stabilizing the financial sector, from Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's plan for private-public partnerships to remove toxic assets from bank balance sheets to the Federal Reserve's move to buy as much as $300 billion in Treasurys.Dan Frascarelli, partner and director of Lord Abbett's Large Cap Core Fund, with $1 billion under management, says bank shares could strengthen once the Treasury's toxic-asset plan is implemented. His fund is now slightly overweighted in financial stocks, moving from an underweight stance in the past six months.'The banks will be in better shape, and you will get a move,' Mr. Frascarelli says, though predicting exactly when that will happen is hard.It helps that the basic business of banking has become more profitable in recent months. Banks are able to borrow at extremely cheap rates while charging borrowers more, giving them a tidy profit margin. If underwriting picks up, fee income also will increase.For now, investors are relying less on typical valuation metrics such as price-to-earnings ratios and more on the essential view that financials will eventually bounce back -- and that rally may come sooner rather than later.Mr. Frascarelli has added to holdings of Goldman Sachs Group, Morgan Stanley, T. Rowe Price and other financial firms that 'work in a better capital-markets environment,' he says.But he is staying away from Citigroup and is underweighted in shares of Bank of America, seeing a chance that holders of common stock in some weaker banks could be diluted if the banks take more capital from the U.S. government.At First American, Mr. Chalupnik still worries about potential landmines. First-quarter earnings for financials and companies in general are likely to come in well below expectations, but that isn't fully reflected in current stock prices, he says.There are plenty of money managers still keeping their distance from the financial sector or stocks in general. A Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey of investors in early March showed that while pessimism about the global economy is receding, many investors are reluctant to shift back into stocks. Cash balances also are still rising.One of those trends will soon have to change, says Mr. Hartnett, the Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategist. 'Either expectations will roll over, or risk appetite will increase,' he says.Some investors are skeptical of the notion that financials must rally the market. 'People say you want to be in them...but I just can't agree with that,' says Chris Johnson, chief investment strategist at Johnson Research Group. 'With the absolute damage that's been done, even if we do see a couple quarters of profitability, their balance sheets remain in question. And we won't return to the heydays when there was so much financing. They just got fat and sassy.'Mr. Johnson likens financials to the semiconductor stocks that led the way to the market highs in the early part of this decade. Prices on semiconductor shares eventually tumbled and have never returned to their former levels. Intel Corp. closed at $14.65 Friday, a far cry from the chip maker's high of $74.88 in August 2000, according to FactSet Research Systems.Annelena Lobb