Zhou Idea: New World Reserve Currency

中国呼吁创造一种新的国际储备货币，最终取代美元。这种提出大规模改革国际金融体系的做法反映出发展中国家对美国在世界经济中所扮演角色的不满。这个不同寻常的公开提议是由中国央行行长周小川周一在一篇文章中提出的，它也再次显示，中国在塑造金融危机全球应对机制方面正采取越来越强势的做法。Reuters中国央行行长周小川中国官员对他们在金融上依赖于美国感到不满，中国国务院总理温家宝本月就曾公开表示对中国持有大量美国国债感到担心。中国和俄罗斯及印度等其它新兴经济体的领导人都明确表示，希望全球经济秩序较少受到美国和其它富裕国家的控制。二十国集团峰会下周将在伦敦召开，目前相关各国都在为此紧锣密鼓地做着准备工作。在过去的会议上，发达国家常常批评中国的经济和汇率政策。这次，中国采取了主动进攻的姿态。周小川在这篇以中英文发表在央行网站的文章中认为，应该在国际贸易和金融中降低美元欧元和日圆等少数单独货币的主导作用。他说，大多数国家都将它们的资产集中于这些储备货币中，这夸大了流动性的规模，使整个金融体系也变得更加不稳定。他说，采用不属于任一个国家的储备货币有利于让所有国家更好地管理本国经济。这也给以更加公平的方式为国际货币基金组织(IMF)融资奠定了基础。许多国家都面临着向国际货币基金组织提供额外现金的压力，中国就是其中之一。前国际货币基金组织官员康奈尔大学贸易政策教授普拉萨德(Eswar Prasad)说，没有人相信这是十全十美的解决方案，但通过这个提议，中国已经重新定义了这场争论。这是中国在他们认为受到发达国家压制的众多领域采取的非常强有力的反击。实施这个方案的技术和政治难度非常大，因此即使得到其他国家的支持，这个方案短期内也不太可能改变美元的角色。周小川说，重建具有稳定的定值基准并为各国所接受的新储备货币可能是个长期内才能实现的目标。央行副行长胡晓炼也在周一早些时间的讲话中说，美元在国际贸易和投资中的支配地位近期不会改变。胡晓炼还担任中国国家外汇管理局局长，负责外汇储备的管理。美国财政部发言人对周小川的观点不予置评。近几周来，奥巴马政府的高级官员一直试图让北京相信，美国目前的支出热只是为重启陷入停滞的美国经济而采取的短期措施，并不意味着长期的挥霍无度。周小川发表这番言论之际，正值奥巴马政府越来越依赖中国来确保美国7,870亿美元刺激计划能够获得成功。尽管财政部长盖特纳(Timothy Geithner)上任伊始，曾对中国将人民币兑美元汇率保持在低位的政策颇有微词，但此后奥巴马政府官员一直对北京方面愿意刺激本国经济继续买美国国债的做法大加赞扬。Reuters图为中国央行正门纽约外交关系协会(Council on Foreign Relations)国际经济部负责人斯戴尔(Benn Steil)说，我会这样猜想：他们已经意识到，为了让刺激计划奏效，我们就必须成功地出售债务，而中国是其中的关键；我们将指望他们能买走约30%的美国国债。周小川的话看起来是对美国的一记警告──美国不能指望中国无限期地为其支出提供资金。此前不久，温家宝对中国持有的美元资产的安全做了深入思考。周小川的提议清楚地反映出，中国迫切希望以美元以外的形式持有1.95万亿美元的外汇储备，但目前又几乎别无选择。随着更多的美元继续通过贸易和投资涌入中国，北京方面除了以美国国债的形式储备美元之外，没有其他现实的选择。周小川辩称，美元失去事实上的储备货币地位，这还会避免未来再发生危机，进而有利于储备货币发行当局，不过他并没有明确提到美元的名字。周小川认为，由于一直以来其他国家继续将美元作为外汇储备，近几年美联储能够实施不负责任的政策，长时间将利率保持在很低的水平，因此助长了房屋市场泡沫的膨胀。周小川说，此次金融危机的爆发并在全球范围内迅速蔓延，反映出当前国际货币体系的内在缺陷和系统性风险。金融危机屡屡发生且愈演愈烈来看，全世界为现行货币体系付出的代价可能会超出从中的收益。周小川并非第一个提出这种观点的人。哥伦比亚大学经济学家斯蒂格利茨(Joseph Stiglitz)上周在上海发表演讲时说，以美元作为外汇储备的体系是问题的一部分，因为这意味着世界上太多的现金都流入了美国。他在演讲中说，我们需要一个全球性的储备体系。周小川为创建这样一个体系提出的想法是，扩大特别提款权(SDR)。特别提款权是上世纪60年代IMF创建的一种合成货币，它的价值由一篮子主要货币决定。最初时，特别提款权意在作为国际储备的共享货币，不过这个作用从未真正实现。现在，特别提款权主要用于IMF与成员国之间交易的核算。周小川建议，各国可以增加对IMF的贡献，以此换取更多特别提款权储备。持有更多的特别提款权国际储备意味着IMF的作用和权力将有极大的增强。这暗示出，中国等发展中国家对国际金融机构并没有敌意，他们只是希望在这些机构的运营中有更大的话语权。中国已经抵挡住美国敦促其立即向IMF提供一笔贷款的要求，因为这样做并不会给中国更大的话语权。胡晓炼周一表示，中国鼓励IMF探索其他筹资选择，中国将考虑买进发行的债券。Andrew Batson（更新完成）相关阅读《周小川：关于改革国际货币体系的思考》全文 2009-03-23中国央行：须对国际货币体系进行改革 2009-03-23中国认为IMF应该加强对发达经济体的监管 2009-03-16中国不投美国国债还能投什么？ 2009-03-16温家宝：担心美国国债安全 2009-03-13


China called for the creation of a new international reserve currency to eventually replace the dollar, proposing a sweeping overhaul of global finance that reflects developing nations' unhappiness with the U.S. role in the world economy.The unusual public proposal, made by central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan in an essay released Monday in Beijing, is part of China's increasingly assertive approach to shaping the global response to the financial crisis.Chinese officials are frustrated at their financial dependence on the U.S., with Premier Wen Jiabao this month publicly expressing 'worries' over China's significant holdings of U.S. government bonds. The leaders of China and other emerging economies such as Russia and India are making it clear they want a global economic order less dominated by the U.S. and other wealthy nations.The proposal comes amid preparations for a summit of the world's industrial and developing nations, the Group of 20, in London next week. At past meetings, developed nations often have criticized China's economic and currency policies. This time, China is on the offensive.In his paper, published in Chinese and English on the central bank's Web site, Mr. Zhou argued for reducing the dominance of a few individual currencies, such as the dollar, euro and yen, in international trade and finance. Most nations concentrate their assets in those reserve currencies, which exaggerates the size of flows and makes financial systems overall more volatile, he said. Moving to a reserve currency that belongs to no individual nation would make it easier for all nations to manage their economies better. It could also be the basis for a more equitable way of financing the International Monetary Fund, he said. China is among a number of nations that have come under pressure to pony up extra cash to help the IMF.'Nobody believes that this is the perfect solution, but by putting this on the table the Chinese have redefined the debate,' said Eswar Prasad, a professor of trade policy at Cornell University and former IMF official. 'It represents a very strong pushback by China on a number of fronts where they feel themselves being pushed around by the advanced countries.'The technical and political hurdles to implementing the proposal are enormous, so even if backed by other nations, the proposal is unlikely to change the dollar's role in the short term.'The re-establishment of a new and widely accepted reserve currency with a stable valuation benchmark may take a long time,' Mr. Zhou said. In remarks earlier Monday, one of Mr. Zhou's deputies, Hu Xiaolian, also said that the dollar's dominant position in international trade and investment is unlikely to change in the near future. Ms. Hu is in charge of reserve management as the head of China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange.A spokeswoman for the U.S. Treasury declined to comment on Mr. Zhou's views.In recent weeks, senior Obama administration officials have sought to reassure Beijing that the current U.S. spending spree is a short-term effort to restart the stalled American economy, not evidence of long-term U.S. profligacy.Mr. Zhou's comments come at a moment when the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama is increasingly dependent on China to ensure that the $787 billion U.S. stimulus plan succeeds. While Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner took office critical of China's policy of keeping the yuan weak against the dollar, Obama administration officials have since praised Beijing for its willingness to stimulate its own economy and continue purchasing U.S. Treasury debt.'I would presume that it has come to their attention that in order for the stimulus plan to work, we're going to have be successful selling our debt, and China is key to that,' said Benn Steil, director of international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. 'We're going to expect them to take up about 30%' of U.S. borrowing.Mr. Zhou's comments -- coming on the heels of Mr. Wen's musings about the safety of China's dollar holdings -- appear to be a warning to the U.S. that it can't expect China to finance its spending indefinitely.Mr. Zhou's proposal clearly reflects both China's desire to hold its $1.95 trillion in reserves in something other than U.S. dollars -- and how few alternatives they now have. With more U.S. dollars continuing to pour into China from trade and investment, Beijing has no realistic option other than storing them in U.S. debt.Mr. Zhou argued -- without mentioning the dollar by name -- that the loss of the dollar's de facto reserve status would also benefit the U.S. by avoiding future crises. Because other nations continued to park their money in the U.S. dollars, the argument goes, the Federal Reserve was able to pursue an irresponsible policy in recent years, keeping interest rates too low for too long and thereby helping to inflate a bubble in the housing market.'The outbreak of the crisis and its spillover to the entire world reflected the inherent vulnerabilities and systemic risks in the existing international monetary system,' Mr. Zhou said. The increasing number and intensity of financial crises suggests 'the costs of such a system to the world may have exceeded its benefits.'Mr. Zhou isn't the first to make that argument. 'The dollar reserve system is part of the problem,' Joseph Stiglitz, the Columbia University economist, said in a speech in Shanghai last week, because it meant so much of the world's cash was funneled into the U.S. 'We need a global reserve system,' he said in the speech.Mr. Zhou's idea for creating such a system is to expand use of 'special drawing rights,' or SDRs -- a kind of synthetic currency created by the IMF in the 1960s. Its value is determined by a basket of major currencies. Originally, the SDR was intended to serve as a shared currency for international reserves, though that aspect never really got off the ground. These days, the SDR is mainly used in the IMF's accounting for its transactions with member nations. Mr. Zhou suggested countries could increase their contributions to the IMF in exchange for greater access to a pool of reserves in SDRs.Holding more international reserves in SDRs would mean a big increase in the role and powers of the IMF. That indicates China and other developing nations aren't hostile to international financial institutions -- they just want to have more of a voice in running them. China has resisted the U.S. push to make an immediate loan to the IMF because that wouldn't give China a bigger vote. Ms. Hu said Monday that China encourages the IMF to explore other fund-raising options, and would consider buying into a bond issue.Andrew Batson