Hungry For A Leader In Budapest

招聘启事：总理，合同期一年，中等大小和中等收入的东欧国家，经济生命有赖于国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)的支持。当务之急：大幅削减公共开支，在2010年春季大选前，将今年的预算赤字保持在国内生产总值的3%。Associated Press已辞职的匈牙利总理久尔恰尼无论谁接替上周末递交辞呈的匈牙利总理久尔恰尼(Ferenc Gyurcsany)，他都将面临一个不值得羡慕的任务。匈牙利现在面临着比当前的预算中和国际货币基金组织及欧盟2008年底同意向其提供250亿美元信贷额度时设想的要严重得多的调整。当时的预算报告认为经济将收缩3%。布达佩斯可能需要采取措施将预算减少14亿至23亿美元，以将赤字降低到国际货币基金组织认为必要的水平。随着失业的增加，大规模削减社会开支将面临巨大的政治压力。不过，情况也不是一片黯淡。国际货币基金组织和欧盟提供的数十亿美元资金援助已经帮助稳定了匈牙利货币福林和当地的银行系统。匈牙利可能还会挣扎几个月时间。假如匈牙利需要得到更多国际支持，它应该能够得到。但是，任何进一步的援助在某种程度上将取决于匈牙利对改革的承诺。新的大选和新一届政府将比任期即将届满的总理更受青睐。Matthew Curtin


Help wanted: prime minister, one-year contract, medium-size and middle-income Eastern European country, economy on International Monetary Fund life support. Top priority: big cuts in public spending to keep budget deficit to 3% of gross domestic product this year ahead of an election due in spring 2010.Whoever succeeds Hungarian Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany, who tendered his resignation this weekend, has an unenviable task. The country now faces a far more severe correction than the one envisaged in the current budget, which was premised on a 3% contraction, and by the IMF and European Union when they agreed on a $25 billion credit line for Hungary late in 2008. Budapest may have to find $1.4 billion to $2.3 billion in budget cuts to hold the deficit to the level the IMF believes is necessary.The political challenge of instituting big cutbacks in social spending as unemployment rises is huge.Still, it isn't all gloom. Billion of dollars of IMF and EU aid have helped stabilize the forint and the local banking system. Hungary might muddle through for a few months. Should Hungary need more international support, it is likely to be available. But any further aid will depend partly on Hungary's commitment to reform. A fresh election and a new government would be preferable to a lame-duck prime minister.Matthew Curtin