Buffett Takes The Long View; Will Investors?

巴菲特(Warren Buffett)很快便能知道他的投资者们是否还能坚持着眼于长远。分析师预计，巴菲特的伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway)第四季度的业绩可能因为几份衍生品合约而受重创。该公司周六上午将公布年报，第四季度业绩也在其中，到时投资者便可知道损失究竟有多大。近年来，该公司卖出了一批相当于美国和外国股市长期下跌保单的衍生品，获得45亿美元收入。当这些合同经过15或20年到期时，如果市场指数低于当初签约时的水平，公司便要赔偿投保人－－赔偿金额可能高达数十亿美元。标准普尔500指数迄今已从高点回落50%左右，世界各地的股指也纷纷下跌。伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司必须每个季度对这些合约的潜在赔款进行估算，其结果是一直在增加，并成为该公司A类股价格自2007年末以来跌去将近一半的原因之一。据该公司称，2008年第三季度，这些期权根据市况计算的负债为67亿美元。在此之后，股市继续下跌，而且影响期权估值的重要指标市场波动率也在加剧。Fox-Pitt Kelton分析师加里•兰塞姆(Gary Ransom)称，这意味着，公司在第四季度会因为这些期权损失惨重，损失会多达120亿美元。不过，这些合约离到期的时间还很长，伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司因此获益的机会还很大。据Morningstar分析师比尔•博格曼(Bill Bergman)称，自1950年以来，标普500指数还从未出现过跌穿15年或20年前点位的情况。但问题是，投资者们是否能坚持下去等到最后翻牌？Scott Patterson相关阅读巴菲特向瑞士再保险注资26亿美元 2009-02-05成败日后见分晓 2009-01-13巴菲特也非料事如神 2008-10-27 本文涉及股票或公司document.write (truthmeter('2009年02月27日13:30', 'BX'));百仕通集团英文名称：Blackstone Group L.P.总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：BXdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月27日13:30', 'BRKA'));Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (Cl A)总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：BRKadocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月27日13:30', 'BRKB'));Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (cl B)总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：BRKbdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月27日13:30', 'KKR.XX'));Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co.总部地点：美国股票代码：KKR


Warren Buffett is about to learn whether his investors can keep their eyes trained on the long view.Mr. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway likely took a big fourth-quarter hit on several derivatives contracts it wrote, analysts expect. Investors will discover just how big when the company releases its annual report, reflecting fourth-quarter earnings Saturday morning.In recent years, the Omaha, Neb., holding company sold what were essentially insurance policies against a long-term decline in U.S. and foreign stocks in exchange for $4.5 billion. When the contracts expire in periods of either 15 or 20 years, Berkshire will have to fork over cash -- possibly billions -- if the indexes are below where they stood when the deals were struck.The S&P 500 is down about 50% from its peak, and indexes around the world have cratered. Berkshire has to calculate its potential liabilities on the contracts every quarter. Liabilities have risen and are part of the reason Berkshire's Class A shares have lost nearly half their value since late 2007.In the third quarter of 2008, Berkshire said its mark-to-market liabilities on the options were $6.7 billion. Since then, stocks have fallen more, and volatility, a key element in valuing options, has soared. That means Berkshire could take a fourth-quarter hit on the options, as much as $12 billion, says Fox-Pitt Kelton analyst Gary Ransom.Still, long term, odds remain good that the contracts will pay off for Berkshire. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has never been lower in any 15- or 20-year period, according to Morningstar analyst Bill Bergman.The question is whether investors will stick around to discover how the bets fare.Scott Patterson