Eastern Europe's Crisis May Worsen

欧洲复兴开发银行(European Bank for Reconstruction and Development)警告，经济危机使中欧和东欧近二十年来的经济改革面临前功尽弃的危险。银行行长托马斯•米罗(Thomas Mirow)称，需要有国际支持方能确保这种情况不会发生。Bloomberg News一些白领坐在欧洲复兴开发银行伦敦总部大楼外吃午饭米罗说，中东欧地区的问题与欧洲其他地区的问题深深地交织在一起，解决之道要建立在政府当局和国际金融机构协调合作的基础之上。欧洲复兴开发银行成立于1991年，旨在通过投资东欧和前苏联国家，帮助它们向市场经济转型。该行这番警告突显出，随着经济放缓，投资者对这一地区产生警觉以及信贷紧缩，东欧国家的经济困难正越来越令人担心。波兰央行周三将关键利率下调0.25个百分点，以在支撑不断下降的本币汇率需要与应付经济放缓的需要之间进行平衡。在下调了拉脱维亚的债务评级一天之后，标准普尔(Standard & Poor)周三将已处于垃圾级的乌克兰主权债务评级进一步下调。该机构指出，乌克兰满足国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)提出的实现预算平衡等援助条件的能力正日渐受到怀疑。这让IMF是否会按照一项为期两年总额164亿美元的贷款协议拨付下一笔款项充满变数。评级下调凸显出金融市场担心欧元区16国的银行面临东欧信用违约的风险。据美联社报导，乌克兰总统尤申科(Viktor Yushchenko)周三表示国家有足够的资金偿还债务，反驳了该国可能无力偿还外债的观点。欧洲复兴开发银行正感受到东欧问题的影响。该行周三报告称，2008年净亏损6.02亿欧元(7.73亿美元)，是自1998年俄罗斯金融危机以来的头一次。这些亏损主要是由该行在30个投资国的股权投资缩水所致。该行业绩的急转直下，反映出一年来东欧和前苏联国家的经济条件恶化和股市崩溃是何等迅速。在可能受到东欧问题拖累的担忧情绪影响下，欧元和欧元区股市也承受着压力。据国际清算银行(Bank for International Settlements)的最新数据，欧元区银行在中东欧的贷款余额达1.3万亿美元。即便是德国也感受到了压力。德国主权债券的违约保险成本在周三仍维持在历史高位。德国在欧元区16国中被作为主权借款国的比较基准。据CMA Datavision称，德国债务的信用违约掉期点差周二和周三大约于0.92个百分点，是历史上的最宽幅度，相比之下去年10月还只有0.08个百分点。这反映出投资者担心风险大规模转移到国家财政上。奥地利和德国银行是这一地区的前两大贷款机构，贷款额分别高达2,730亿美元和2,120亿美元。Paul Hannon / Michael Wilson相关阅读东欧危机加重 急需更多救助资金 2009-02-23东欧危机威胁西欧知名企业 2009-02-23东欧经济噩耗连连  外资银行遭受重创 2009-02-19东欧经济步履蹒跚 2009-02-13


The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development warned that the economic crisis 'is threatening to throw nearly two decades of economic reform into reverse' in Central and Eastern Europe.International support will be needed to make sure that doesn't happen, EBRD President Thomas Mirow said.'The region's problems are deeply interwoven with those of the rest of Europe, and the solution lies in a coordinated response from public authorities and international financial institutions,' he said.The bank was established in 1991 to invest in countries in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union to help their transition to market economies. Its warning underlines growing concern about the economic strains in Eastern Europe as economies slow, investors become wary of the region and credit tightens.Poland's central bank cut key interest rates by 0.25 percentage point Wednesday, balancing the need to support its plunging currency against symptoms of a slowing economy.Also Wednesday, Standard & Poor's downgraded Ukraine's sovereign debt deeper into junk status. The ratings agency, which downgraded Latvian debt a day earlier, cited growing doubts that Kiev can meet the International Monetary Fund's aid requirements, including a balanced budget. This puts the next installment of a two-year $16.4 billion loan agreement in doubt.The downgrade underscored concerns in financial markets about the exposure of banks from the 16-country euro zone to credit default in Eastern Europe.Ukraine President Viktor Yushchenko on Wednesday said the country has enough money to service its debt, disputing the likelihood of a default, the Associated Press reported.The EBRD is feeling the effects of  Eastern Europe's problems, reporting Wednesday that it had a net loss of 602 million euros ($773 million) in 2008, its first since the Russian financial crisis in 1998.The loss was largely the result of declines in the value of its equity investments in the 30 countries where it invests.The scale of the turnaround in the EBRD's financial fortunes reflects the speed with which economic conditions and equity markets in eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union have deteriorated over the last year.The euro and euro-zone equity markets have come under pressure on concerns they could be dragged down by Eastern Europe's problems. Euro-zone banks have loans outstanding in Central and Eastern Europe amounting to $1.3 trillion, according to the latest data from the Bank for International Settlements.Even Germany, the sovereign borrower against which other borrowers in the 16-country currency zone are judged, is feeling the pressure. The cost of insuring German sovereign bonds against default remained stuck at record levels Wednesday.Credit-default-swap spreads on German debt were quoted at around 0.92 percentage point Tuesday and Wednesday, their widest level ever, after narrowing to as little as 0.08 percentage point as recently as October, according to CMA Datavision.That reflects investor concerns about the general transfer of risk onto public balance sheets. Austrian and German banks are the top two lenders in the region, at $273 billion and $212 billion, respectively.Paul Hannon / Michael Wilson