HSBC A Likely Gauge Into Asia Woes

英国银行汇丰控股(HSBC Holdings PLC)曾是首批发出美国次级抵押贷款危机警讯的银行。现在，这家全球性银行将于下周一公布2008年业绩，或许可以为我们提供一个了解亚洲经济下滑严重程度和影响范围的窗口。汇丰控股是少数几家尚不需要政府救助的大型全球性银行。该行将近五分之一的贷款都放给了亚洲，其中大约半数是在香港发放的（约1,000亿美元）。近年来亚洲业务的强劲增长帮助汇丰抵消了其他地区的亏损，也使它比同行更有实力应对金融危机。European Pressphoto Agency汇丰控股位于香港的一家分支机构但考虑到亚洲经济前景黯淡，市场担心汇丰将成为亚洲厄运的警示灯。亚洲地区普遍出现了出口不断下滑和经济增长陷入停滞的问题，去年第四季度香港经济较上年同期收缩了2.5%。分析师预计，这会导致汇丰的利润下滑，出现更多坏帐，迫使该行或筹集资金或削减股息，以增加用于应对损失的准备金。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)驻伦敦的银行业分析师赫斯比(Michael Helsby)说，亚洲经济下滑逐渐成为现实，这对汇丰来说显然是个坏消息。赫斯比预计，汇丰2008年会增加11.4亿美元的减值支出，以增加应对香港和亚太地区坏帐的准备金，较2007年增加34%。Keefe, Bruyette & Woods的分析师也预计，去年汇丰香港业务利润会下滑14%，至63亿美元。若汇丰在亚洲表现疲软，对其他在亚洲拥有重要业务的银行或许是个不祥之兆。这些银行包括了英国苏格兰皇家银行集团(Royal Bank Of Scotland Group Plc)和渣打集团(Standard Chartered PLC)，两家公司将分别于周四和下周二公布业绩。苏格兰皇家银行正打算出售2007年收购荷兰银行(ABN Amro Holding NV)时买入的部分亚洲业务。两家银行均拒绝发表评论。分析师普遍预计汇丰2008年会录得大约210亿美元税前利润，较2007年下滑11%，公司将计入总计超过220亿美元的坏帐减值支出。赫斯比预计，如果出现严重的全球经济衰退，汇丰最终还需要200亿-350亿美元资金，并将股息削减一半，以增加资本基础。但他并不认为汇丰会在下周一宣布这些措施。瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)的分析师认为，汇丰可以将股息削减30%以应对危机。汇丰发言人拒绝就可能的筹资或削减股息发表评论。如果汇丰真的下调股息，它将步此前一系列银行的后尘；最近一个这么做的银行是摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase)，该行周二表示打算将股息削减87%。汇丰的主要损失仍然来自于旗下美国消费者金融部门，即原先的Household International Inc.。早在2006年末，汇丰就公布旗下美国次级抵押贷款业务出现了问题。2007年，汇丰北美业务计入了将近120亿美元的减值支出，大部分都是由美国贷款问题引起的，去年上半年Household部门又计入了67亿美元减值支出。摩根士丹利预计，汇丰北美业务全年减值将超过160亿美元。里昂证券亚太区市场(CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets)的分析师预计，汇丰美国部门可能还会冲减大约100亿美元的资产。汇丰于2003年斥资大约140亿美元收购了次级抵押贷款公司Household。这一消费者金融部门已经引起了汇丰股东Knight Vinke Asset Management的强烈不满，这家维权积极性很高的机构投资者持有汇丰不到1%的股份。Knight Vinke发言人周二表示，这笔收购真是一场灾难，而且还一点起色都没有。该基金要求汇丰为这一部门考虑诸多选择方案，包括筹集资金甚至申请破产保护。 汇丰一直努力通过修订还贷条款以遏制美国市场的贷款拖欠问题。但此举的结果喜忧参半：据汇丰去年第三季度的监管文件显示，截至去年9月30日，汇丰修订了还贷条款的287亿美元消费者贷款中，有21%随后出现了违约。Sara Schaefer Munoz相关阅读IMF下调亚洲2009年GDP预期 2009-02-03汇丰控股需要筹集新资本 2009-01-19 本文涉及股票或公司document.write (truthmeter('2009年02月26日13:56', '0005.HK'));汇丰控股有限公司（简称：汇丰控股）英文名称：HSBC Holdings PLC总部地点：英国上市地点：香港交易所股票代码：0005document.write (truthmeter('2009年02月26日13:56', 'HBC'));汇丰控股有限公司（简称：汇丰控股）英文名称：HSBC Holdings PLC (ADS)总部地点：英国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：HBCdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月26日13:56', 'HSBA.LN'));Hsbc Holdings Plc总部地点：英国上市地点：伦敦股票代码：HSBA


British bank HSBC Holdings PLC was among the first banks to signal the U.S. subprime crisis. Now, when the global bank reports 2008 results Monday, it could provide a window into the pace and scope of the economic downturn in Asia. HSBC, one of the few large banks world-wide that hasn't yet needed government support, has nearly a fifth of its loan book in Asia, with about half of those loans -- some $100 billion -- in Hong Kong alone. In recent years, strong growth in the region has helped the bank offset losses elsewhere and weather the financial crisis much better than its peers. But the dimming outlook for Asia is raising concerns that HSBC will become a beacon of the region's woes. Exports are falling and economic growth is evaporating across the region, with Hong Kong's economy contracting 2.5% in the last three months of 2008, compared with the year-ago period. Analysts expect that to translate into waning profits and more souring loans for HSBC, putting pressure on the bank to either raise cash or cut dividends in an effort to boost the capital cushion it must maintain to absorb losses. 'When the Asian downturn kicks in more materially, that will clearly be bad news' for the bank, said Michael Helsby, a banking analyst at Morgan Stanley in London. Mr. Helsby estimates the bank will have to take an added $1.14 billion in impairment charges for 2008 to boost its provisions against bad loans in Hong Kong and the Asian-Pacific region, up 34% from 2007. Analysts at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Ltd. expect HSBC to report a 14% drop in profit at its Hong Kong business for 2008, to $6.3 billion. A poor Asian performance for HSBC could be a bad sign for other banks with big operations in the region. Those include the U.K.'s Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC and Standard Chartered PLC, which report 2008 results Thursday and Tuesday, respectively. RBS is looking to sell some of its Asian operations, which it acquired as part of its purchase of ABN Amro Holding NV in 2007. Both banks declined to comment. In all, analysts expect HSBC to report a pretax profit of about $21 billion for 2008, down 11% from 2007, including a total of more than $22 billion in impairment charges against bad loans. In a scenario with a severe global recession, the bank will ultimately need an additional $20 billion to $35 billion and cut its dividend in half to rebuild its capital, said Mr. Helsby, though he doesn't expect an announcement on these fronts Monday. Analysts at Credit Suisse Group, by contrast, believe the bank can get by with a 30% dividend cut. A spokesman for the bank declined to comment on a possible capital raising or dividend cut. If it does reduce the dividend, HSBC would be the latest in a series of banks to do so, the most recent of which was J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., which said Tuesday it would slash its dividend 87%. The lion's share of HSBC's losses still will come from its U.S. consumer-finance arm, formerly Household International Inc. HSBC began reporting problems in its subprime-lending book there in late 2006. In 2007, its North American operations racked up almost $12 billion in impairments, largely due to souring U.S. loans, with an additional $6.7 billion in the former Household unit in the first half of 2008. Morgan Stanley expects full-year impairments in North America to reach more than $16 billion. The bank may also write down the value of the U.S. unit by about $10 billion, said analysts at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets. HSBC purchased the subprime lender for about $14 billion in 2003. The consumer-finance unit has drawn fire from Knight Vinke Asset Management, an activist investor that owns a stake of less than 1% in HSBC. 'It's been a pretty disastrous purchase and it is not getting any better,' a spokesman for Knight Vinke said Tuesday. The asset manager is calling for HSBC to look at a variety of options for the unit, including raising fresh cash or even filing for bankruptcy protection. The bank has been making an effort to stem delinquencies in the U.S. by modifying loans. But the move has had mixed results: As of Sept. 30, 21% of $28.7 billion in consumer loans HSBC modified had subsequently experienced defaults, the bank disclosed in its third-quarter regulatory filing. Sara Schaefer Munoz