North Korea Resumes Role of Provocateur

朝鲜决定发射一枚多级火箭，标志着它重新开启挑衅滋事的模式。自从20年前它的长期经济伙伴苏联分崩离析后，朝鲜就一直按这个模式行事。来自其他国家的分析人士指出，朝鲜官方周二宣布发射的火箭是它一直在研发的新型远程导弹，射程可达美国西部或部分欧洲国家。朝鲜邻国及美国的情报和军事官员从今年1月份起，开始用卫星拍照技术观察朝鲜东北部火箭发射基地的准备情况。Reuters朝鲜领导人金正日（左二）在朝鲜茂山铁矿分析人士表示，朝鲜选定这个发射时机，是为了试探美国新任总统奥巴马(Barack Obama)是否愿意和朝鲜打交道。在前总统布什(George W. Bush)任内，美国有六年的时间都对朝鲜不理不睬，直到2006年10月份朝鲜进行了一次核试爆，美国才加快了和朝鲜的无核化谈判，并在2007年2月签署了一项新的协议。周二，朝鲜官方媒体发表声明称，朝鲜将用火箭发射国家第二枚试验通信卫星；这是朝鲜取得的重大进步。在1998年时，朝鲜就曾将第一枚远程导弹的试射佯称为发射首枚通信卫星。金正日在2000年和时任美国国务卿奥尔布莱特(Madeleine Albright)会面时还坚持了这种说法。在这种情况下，文字游戏能为朝鲜完成一个重要的铺垫工作──若美国试图通过击落被发射物而测试自己的反导系统，朝鲜就可以藉此大声抗议。位于首尔的韩国国防分析研究院（Korea Institute of Defense Analysis）的副校长Kim Tae-woo说，朝鲜这么说就是让美国找不到合法的理由来为自己可能采取的行动进行辩护。2006年7月时朝鲜试射了第二枚远程导弹。1998年和2006年两次导弹试射都以失败收场，外国分析人士说导弹的射程远远不及它们的设计打击距离。在朝鲜周二发表声明之后，韩国联合通讯社(Yonhap News Agency)援引军情官员的话报导，火箭/导弹尚未在发射场部署到位，这意味着真正发射还需要几天或几周时间。Reuters韩国首尔的朝鲜战争纪念馆此次发射将给朝鲜以及外界（如韩国和美国等警惕的旁观者及中东等地潜在的武器买家）一个机会，评估朝鲜的导弹技术发展程度。但此次发射另有政治目的，它是朝鲜在核问题上实行的边缘政策和藉核问题讨价还价政策的延续。自从上世纪90年代初期苏联及其经济集团崩塌，朝鲜陷入贫困之后，朝鲜就一直在推行这些政策。去年年中，因朝鲜拒不接受对其核活动进行检查的相关条款，朝韩日俄中美举行的六方会谈陷入停滞。这一僵局使得朝鲜一直到布什执政结束前都敷衍拖延，并开始了新一轮挑 行动。美国国务院发言人罗伯特·伍德(Robert Wood)说，他注意到了朝方声明，美国认为，朝鲜与弹道导弹相关的任何活动都是联合国安理会明令禁止的。伍德说，美国认为，朝鲜应该花时间集中解决无核化问题，并终止这种威吓和挑 行为。白宫说，奥巴马周二在和来访的日本首相麻生太郎(Taro Aso)会晤时，二人共同承诺，要通过六方会谈机制确保朝鲜放弃核计划，并应对朝鲜导弹试射以及日本公民被绑架等问题。上周，美国国务卿希拉里(Hillary Clinton)出访亚洲四国，并指派了一位朝鲜问题特使。她表示，导弹试射是件让人非常担忧的事。在中国外交部例行记者招待会上，外交部新闻发言人马朝旭回答有关朝鲜上述声明的问题时指出，中方已经注意了到这一情况；希望有关各方多做有利于半岛和本地区和平稳定的事。马朝旭在回答相关的后续问题时说，我想重申，维护朝鲜半岛的和平与稳定符合各方的共同利益，我们希望有关各方多做有利于半岛以及地区的和平与稳定的事。我们希望有关各方能够继续共同努力，推进六方会谈的进程。分析人士也表示，朝鲜还借试射来引起韩国方面的焦虑，并引导公众反对韩国总统李明博(Lee Myung-bak)所倡导的将经济援助与无核化挂钩的政策立场。10年来，韩国对朝鲜的援助几乎不附带任何前提条件，李明博的政策改变了这一状况。据韩国政府1月份公布的数据显示，这一政策转变令朝鲜去年损失了约3亿美元的援助。李明博的支持率仅仅略高于30%，但他的对朝强硬立场却大受欢迎。本月早些时候的一项民意测验显示，68%的受访者支持李明博的政策。本周的另一项民调则表明，在各个年龄段中，绝大多数韩国人都指责朝鲜制造两国紧张气氛。Evan Ramstad相关阅读朝鲜接班人存疑 希拉里欲向中国求证 2009-02-20朝鲜暗示正准备进行火箭发射 2009-02-17希拉里向朝鲜抛出橄榄枝 2009-02-16


North Korea's decision to launch a multistage rocket marks a new start to a pattern of provocation that it has pursued since the collapse of its long-time economic partner, the Soviet Union, 20 years ago.Analysts outside North Korea say the rocket, which was announced Tuesday after weeks of speculation, is a new version of a long-range missile it has been developing that would be capable of reaching the western U.S. or parts of Europe.Intelligence and military officials in neighboring countries and the U.S., using satellite photography, began to observe preparations at a launch site in northeast North Korea in January.Analysts say North Korea is timing the launch to test the willingness of new U.S. President Barack Obama to deal with it. Under George W. Bush, the U.S. treated North Korea coldly for six years until it tested a nuclear device in October 2006, which sped up disarmament negotiations and produced a new deal in February 2007.In an announcement carried by state-run media on Tuesday, North Korea said it is 'making brisk headway' for the launch of what it called a rocket carrying the nation's second experimental communications satellite.In 1998, North Korea dubbed the test of its first long-range missile the launch of its first communications satellite. Dictator Kim Jong Il repeated the euphemism in 2000 during a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright.In this case, the language lays the groundwork for North Korea to cry foul if the U.S. tries to test its missile-defense system by shooting down the Korean projectile.'It's trying to eliminate any legitimacy the U.S. may claim for its own actions,' said Kim Tae-woo, vice president of the Korea Institute of Defense Analysis in Seoul.North Korea tested a second long-range missile in July 2006. Both the 1998 and 2006 tests failed, with the missiles falling well short of the distance that outside analysts believed they were designed to reach.After North Korea's announcement Tuesday, the South Korean news agency Yonhap quoted intelligence officials in that country as saying North Korea hasn't yet positioned a rocket or missile at the launch site, which means a test won't take place for days or perhaps weeks.A new launch will give North Korea and outsiders -- including wary observers such as South Korea and the U.S. as well as potential weapons customers in the Mideast and elsewhere -- a way to gauge the progress of its missile technology.But the effort holds political goals as well, and continues a pattern of nuclear brinkmanship and bargaining that began in the early 1990s after North Korea plunged into poverty following the collapse of the Soviet Union and its economic bloc.Six-party talks among the U.S., North and South Korea, Russia, China and Japan have been on hold since the middle of last year as North Korea disputed terms for verifying its nuclear activities. The stalemate allowed Pyongyang to temporize until the end of the Bush administration and set up a new round of provocation.U.S. State Department spokesman Robert Wood said he was aware of reports of the announcement, and that the U.S. considered any North Korean 'ballistic-missile-related activities' to be subject to a U.N. security council ban.'Our view is that the North needs to spend its time working on and focusing on denuclearization,' he told reporters, adding that North Korea 'needs to desist' from 'intimidation and threats.'According to the White House, President Obama, meeting Tuesday with Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso, pledged with Japan to cooperate through the six-party process to verifiably eliminate North Korea's nuclear program and 'deal with the problem of North Korea's missiles, as well as other matters including Japan's abducted citizens.'Last week, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton toured Asia and appointed a special envoy to North Korea, noting that a missile launch would be a 'matter of great concern.'In China, Ma Zhaoxu, spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, responded to a question about North Korea's announcement at a routine news conference: 'The Chinese side has taken notice of the situation. We hope the relevant parties will do more to help the peace and stability of the peninsula and this region.'In response to a follow-up question, Mr. Ma said: 'I'd like to reiterate, maintaining peace and stability in the Korean peninsula is in the common interests of all parties. We hope the relevant parties will do more to help the peace and stability of the peninsula and the region. We hope the relevant parties can continue to make common efforts to push forward the six-party talks process.'Analysts also say North Korea is using the launch to stoke anxiety in South Korea and turn public sentiment against President Lee Myung-bak's policy of linking financial aid to disarmament, which reversed Seoul's decade of near-unconditional assistance to Pyongyang.Mr. Lee's policy cost North Korea about $300 million in lost aid last year, according to data released by South Korea's government in January.Mr. Lee's overall approval rating hovers slightly above 30%, but his hard-line stance with the North is hugely popular. One opinion poll earlier this month showed 68% of respondents support it and another this week showed South Koreans by huge margins in all age groups blame the North for creating tension between the two countries.Evan Ramstad