Yen Rally Comes To An End

是日本的好运突然降临，还是市场终会自行调整的证明？不管怎样，日圆已开始摆脱作为避险货币的状况。日圆走势的大转向可能是日圆多头坏消息的开始，但对陷入困境的日本出口商而言则显然是一条好消息。自2007年以来，随着日本投资者抛出以快速贬值的外国货币计值的资产──股票债券和房地产，买入国内的基金，日圆一直是衡量投资者风险偏好程度的可靠指标。一个行业组织说，日本投资信托公司持有的外国资产在过去一年中已减少了1,180亿美元。就这点而言，日圆是一个反映恐慌程度的敏感指标，随着投资者抛售股票和新兴市场货币而大幅上扬。这种相关性已经不复存在了。股票再度暴跌，美国股市的所谓恐慌指标VIX指数升至一个月来的高点。但日圆兑美元却跌至12周来的最低点。过去6个月里日圆兑美元上涨了15%，但现在正在回吐这些涨幅。这的确能够说明问题。美国的经济前景固然非常严峻，而日本可能更加糟糕。在日本经济以1974年以来最快的的速度下滑之际，这个国家却缺乏可靠的政治领导人。日圆的下跌缓解了日本出口商和日本政府的压力。前者的利润受到了日圆走强的打击，而后者一直难以抵制干预和削弱日圆汇率的诱惑。日本将公布一系列重要经济数据，包括周五有关出口形势的最新报告。同上年同期相比，日本去年12月出口跌幅达到了创纪录的35%。更令人沮丧的新闻可能让日圆进一步下跌。至少日本的一些人能够对此感到欣慰。David Roman 本文涉及股票或公司document.write (truthmeter('2009年02月25日12:30', 'SAY'));萨蒂扬软件技术有限公司英文名称：Satyam Computer Services Ltd. (ADS)总部地点：印度(India)上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：SAYdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月25日12:30', 'UBS'));瑞士银行英文名称：UBS AG (ADS)总部地点：瑞士(Switzerland)上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：UBSdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月25日12:30', '500376.BY'));Satyam Computer Services Ltd.总部地点：印度(India)上市地点：孟买股票代码：SATYdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月25日12:30', '500510.BY'));Larsen & Toubro Ltd.总部地点：印度(India)上市地点：孟买股票代码：LARTdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月25日12:30', 'UBSN.VX'));瑞士银行英文名称：UBS AG总部地点：瑞士(Switzerland)上市地点：VTX股票代码：UBSN


Call it a lucky break for Japan or proof that markets tend to correct themselves eventually. Either way, the yen has started to shed its status as a haven currency.It's a turnaround that could be the start of bad news for yen bulls but great news for Japan's beleaguered exporters.Since 2007, the yen has been a reliable gauge of risk aversion among investors as Japanese investors sold off assets denominated in fast-depreciating foreign currencies -- stocks, bonds, real estate -- and brought funds home. Foreign assets held by Japanese investment trusts have fallen by $118 billion in the past year, an industry group says.In this way, the yen's been an acute measure of panic, spiking as investors dumped stocks and emerging-market currencies.That correlation has broken down. Stocks are again tumbling and the U.S. stock market's so-called fear gauge, the VIX, has jumped to one-month highs. But the yen has fallen to its lowest  against the dollar in 12 weeks.Step back six months and the yen is up 15% against the dollar, but it is backing off those gains.This only makes sense. As grim as the outlook for the U.S. is, it's worse for Japan. The country lacks credible political leadership as its economy shrinks at its fastest rate since 1974.The falling yen is welcome relief for Japanese exporters whose profits have been crushed by the stronger currency, and for the Japanese government, which has struggled with the temptation to intervene and weaken it.Japan is due to report a slew of key economic data, including an update on its export situation Friday. In December, exports fell a record 35% from a year earlier. More dismal news could see the yen falling further. At least some in Japan can find consolation in that.David Roman