OPEC Weighs Reducing Oil Output Next Month

油价的持续下跌加大了石油输出国组织(OPEC, 简称：欧佩克)下个月减产的压力。原油市场从2002年至2008年经历了一个由盛至衰的轮回，一些曾有大量石油美元的欧佩克成员国如安哥拉厄瓜多尔伊朗和科威特等，都计划削减今年的政府支出，以抵消产油收入缩水的影响。尼日利亚勉强没有削减2009年预算，但总统奥马鲁•亚拉杜瓦(Umaru Yar'Adua)告诉政府雇员，他们今年的收入将下降。目前，委内瑞拉尚欠多家海外石油服务企业数亿美元，致使总部位于俄克拉荷马的Helmerich & Payne Inc.等公司已暂停部分业务。由于某些产油区处于停工状态，委内瑞拉国有石油公司Petroleos de Venezuela SA不得不进行了人数不详的裁员。为了提振油价，欧佩克已经在过去两个月中将石油日产量削减了300万桶，名义收入损失总共达到74亿美元。然而，全球石油需求的萎缩已令油价较去年7月份创下的峰值跌去了70%左右。此外，预计今年的全球原油需求量将下滑1%，是近三十年来最大降幅。据一位欧佩克成员国高级代表透露，该组织可能在3月15日的维也纳会议上将石油日产量再减少多达100万桶。这位代表说，欧佩克将采取一切必要措施稳定市场。在过去几个月中油价一直在每桶50美元下方徘徊，这不仅威胁到了欧佩克成员国的金融稳定，而且为满足人口日益膨胀导致的需求而开展的电厂建设等项目也因此受到了影响。各国部长们正在准备迎接歉收之年的到来。有人指出，即便欧佩克宣布进一步减产，石油交易员也会对其可信度存疑。不同的分析数据显示，虽然欧佩克已经宣布的每日减产量达到了420万桶，但实际减产规模仅为75%左右。全球石油消费量的四成由欧佩克供应。为让市场相信欧佩克肯在牺牲石油收入的情况下再度进行大规模减产，那么该组织首先要拿出行动来，不折不扣地履行此前的减产计划。Spencer Swartz相关阅读欧佩克减产难改油价跌势 2009-01-15欧佩克主席：俄罗斯可能加入欧佩克 2008-12-18欧佩克攀爬油价高山 2008-12-18欧佩克创纪录减产以支撑油价 2008-12-18


Falling oil prices are putting pressure on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to cut production next month.Once teeming with petrodollars from the oil boom that started in 2002 and fizzled last year, a number of OPEC members, including Angola, Ecuador, Iran and Kuwait will reduce government spending this year to compensate for shrinking oil income. Nigeria narrowly avoided cutting its 2009 budget, but its president, Umaru Yar'Adua, told government workers they'll see smaller paychecks this year.Venezuela hasn't paid hundreds of millions of dollars to a number of foreign oil-service companies, causing some firms, including Oklahoma-based Helmerich & Payne to halt some operations. With no work to be done in certain locations, state-run Petroleos de Venezuela SA has been forced to layoff an untold number of its oil workers.In an attempt to boost prices, OPEC has cut production over the past two months by about 3 million barrels a day -- at a nominal cost in revenue of roughly $7.4 billion for the period. But shrinking oil demand world-wide has brought prices down about 70% since their peak in July. And global crude demand is expected to fall 1% this year, the steepest drop in almost three decades.The group may pledge another production cut of as much 1 million barrels a day when it meets March 15 in Vienna, according to a senior OPEC delegate. 'We will take whatever action is necessary to stabilize the market,' the delegate said.Oil prices below $50 a barrel over the past few months have threatened OPEC states' financial stability and their development projects, such as power plants, to meet the demands of their growing populations.Ministers are girding for lean times.Some question whether any announcements for more production cuts will have credibility with oil traders. OPEC members, which pump four in 10 barrels consumed globally daily, have complied with about 75% of the 4.2 million barrels a day in cuts already announced, according to various analyst estimates.Full compliance will be required before the market believes OPEC members will take another chop at production at the cost of more oil income.Spencer Swartz