No Turnaround Before 2010-Execs

对经济的暗淡预测还在不断到来。根据美国注册会计师协会和北卡罗莱纳大学凯南-弗拉格勒商学院周四发布的一项调查结果，财务高管们称，他们预计美国经济2010年前不会开始复苏。许多分析师和大多数美联储(Federal Reserve)的决策者都预计美国经济将在今年下半年开始逐步复苏。而在2月12日前历时两周的调查中，财务主管们将复苏的时间推后了6个月。这项季度调查共涉及1,183名注册会计师，他们分别在企业中担任首席执行长首席运营长首席财务长或总审计师。约83%的受访者称对未来一年的美国经济感到“悲观”或“非常悲观”。只有5%的人说他们对经济前景感到“乐观”。去年11月，超过40%的受访者表示，他们预计2009年下半年经济将会复苏。现在只有30%的人持这种看法，而41%的受访者预计美国经济将在2010年上半年开始复苏，20%的受访者预计明年下半年出现好转。北卡罗莱纳大学教授Mark Lang在发布调查结果时说，我曾希望我们可以在本季度见底，但情况继续恶化，只是速度比上季度略有减缓而已。企业正在经受商业周期带来的各种影响。最让人担心的是，所有经济领域都存在这种通病。超过一半的受访者表示，他们预计他们公司的员工人数还会下降，43%的受访者所在的公司已经进行了裁员。调查中有一半的公司还冻结了资本开支。值得注意的是，这项调查说，让人感到“一线希望”的是有四分之一的公司仍预计业绩有所增长。（是的，只有四分之一的公司预计增长，在这些天来也是希望所在了。）Sudeep Reddy相关阅读奥巴马签署经济法案 警告经济复苏道阻且长 2009-02-18格林斯潘：难以确定经济复苏时间 2009-02-18亚洲各国推动债券市场促复苏 2009-02-17美经济学家对下半年复苏信心下降 2009-02-13美联储欲振兴市场 怎奈手脚受缚 2009-02-12


The grim forecasts for the economy keep coming. Top finance executives say they don't expect the U.S. economy to start recovering before 2010, according to a survey released Thursday by the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants and the University of North Carolina's Kenan-Flagler Business School.Many analysts and most Federal Reserve policymakers expect the economy to begin a gradual recovery in the second half of this year. The finance executives, in a survey conducted over two weeks ending Feb. 12, push expectations for a turnaround six months down the road. The quarterly poll covered 1,183 CPAs who serve as chief executives, chief operating officers, chief financial officers or controllers in their firms.About 83% said they were 'pessimistic' or 'very pessimistic' about the U.S. economy over the next year. Just 5% said they were 'optimistic' about the outlook. In November, more than 40% said they expected a recovery in the second half of 2009. Now just 30% expect that, while 41% expect a recovery to begin in the first half of 2010 and 20% expect the turnaround to start in the second half of next year.'I had hoped we might see a bottoming out this quarter, but conditions continue to deteriorate, albeit at a slightly slower rate than last quarter,' said UNC professor Mark Lang in releasing the survey. 'Companies are feeling the effects all of the way through the business cycle. Most striking, the general malaise is prevalent in all sectors of the economy.'More than half said they expect the number of workers at their companies to decline and 43% have already carried out layoffs. Half of all companies in the survey also instituted capital-spending freezes.Remarkably, the survey says 'one glimmer of hope' is that a quarter of companies still expect some growth. (Yes, only a quarter of firms expecting growth is what passes for hope these days.)Sudeep Reddy