Don't Bail Out of the Market. Re-Balance

股市再度出现暴跌；“新年反弹”也到此为止了。我们又回到了低点附近，谁有办法呢？千百万投资者已经退出了市场。他们已经放弃，出售他们的共同基金，手中只持有现金。深受过去15个月巨幅亏损的折磨，他们发誓不会再涉足市场。在上周结束后，又有许多人产生了同样的想法。谁又能责怪他们呢？那么，你想听有关金融市场的坏消息，还是好消息呢？坏消息是，几乎一切都已经崩溃。市政债券海外股票投资级公司债券公用事业类股新兴市场债券。已经没有藏身之地了。它们都出现了暴跌。好消息呢？是所有一切都已经崩溃。市政债券海外股票。一切的一切。它们都跳下了悬崖。这带来了令人难以置信的机会。不要退出市场。而是要重新调整。我已经说了几个月，我再次重复一次自己的看法：市场的崩溃给投资者带来了难得的重新调整投资组合的机会。通常，当市场崩溃时，暴跌的都是你大笔投资的资产。（如2000年的科技股。）与此同时，你没有持有的资产却大幅上扬。（如2000年的债券和价值型股票。）这一次，几乎一切都是下跌。这种安慰可能无济于事，我知道：你的损失仍然没有消失。但现在重新调整能够减少很多痛苦。绝对没有人知道下一步市场会发生什么。事情是会趋于稳定，还是进一步下跌。你所能做的是考虑各种可能。这种可能性表明，重新调整投资组合能实现风险与回报的最佳平衡。可以关注一下市政债券，这是一个经常被忽视的投资领域。这些债券从去年的低点有所反弹，而且支付的股息仍高于美国国债。对中长期市政债券尤其如此。但国债要纳税，而市政债券收入基本都免缴联邦所得税。投资广泛的市政债券基金的违约风险基本可以忽略不计。历史情况说明，它们几乎同国债一样安全，而且目前看起来具有更高的价值，尤其是对高收入的纳税人。有些公司债券的价格也很低。Vanguard's Short-Term Investment Grade基金的收益率为5%。当然，公司债券会有一些风险。有些公司会破产，它们的债券也会违约。但在投资广泛的基金中，你的风险是有限的。这些都是短期债券；大多数都在三年内到期。这通常意味着你承担的风险低了很多，无论是在违约还是通货膨胀方面。通常值得信赖的公用事业类股也下跌了很多。许多蓝筹股也是如此。比如，很多电信食品和烟草公司目前的股息收益率都很高。当然股息无法得到保证。如果情况恶化，一些企业甚至许多企业都会减少派息。但在目前的价格水平上，你的回报会远大于风险。再看看海外。许多外国股市目前的确便宜，许多海外政府债券也是如此。财务咨询机构通常会说，这些海外债券的风险较大。但是，许多政府对本国财务状况的管理要比我们更加谨慎。现在很难看到这场危机的结束会对美元产生什么好处。可以将一些资金投向海外，以避免美元暴跌对你的影响。黄金出现了回升，但许多金矿类股却仍处于低位。如果你不能忍受动荡，那么可以将部分资金投入一些“市场中性”或“绝对回报”的共同基金，争取在所有市场上获得更稳定的回报。这可能是买进用衍生工具产生额外收入和减少波动的专业股市基金的良机。其中的Gateway等基金拥有长期的良好业绩记录。当前的市场中并没有现成的答案。我们正在度过这段不平凡的历史。投资者需要钢铁般的意志和承受力。历史表明，许多普通投资者往往会在错误的时间退出市场。股票的确可能进一步下跌，但这远不是一定会发生的事情。市场的走势同对未来事件的预期有关。许多股票现在已非常便宜。这些策略可能会比单独持有股票型基金的波动性要小，但不会完全消除波动。不过，除了赤膊上阵到华尔街一试身手，或者干脆退出市场，你还有许多其他选择。Brett Arends相关阅读美国市场的“希望气球”正在泄气 2009-02-17中国股市大涨 境外投资者多保持观望 2009-02-17中美股市为何冰火两重天？ 2009-02-17关注四只低价蓝筹股 2009-02-16股市的刺激方案又在哪里？ 2009-02-16


Markets are plunging again; so much for that 'new year rally.' We're back down near the lows, and who can cope?Millions of investors have already bailed out of the market. They've given up, sold their mutual funds and are holding everything in cash. Stung by the deep losses of the last fifteen months, they've vowed never to set foot in the markets again. And after the last week, many more are thinking of doing the same. Who can blame them?Well, do you want the bad news about the financial markets, or the good news?The bad news is that pretty much everything has collapsed. Municipal bonds. Overseas equities. Investment grade corporate bonds. Utility stocks. Emerging market debt. There's been no place to hide. They've all plunged.The good news? Everything has collapsed. Municipal bonds. Overseas equities. The whole shebang. They've all backed off a cliff.And that makes this an incredible opportunity.Don't bail out of the market. Rebalance.I've been saying for months, and I'll repeat myself again: This meltdown gives investors a rare chance for a portfolio do-over.Normally, when markets plunge the collapsed assets are the ones you've invested in heavily. (Think tech stocks in 2000.) Meanwhile, the assets you don't own soar. (Think bonds and 'value' stocks in 2000.)This time around, almost everything is down. Cold comfort, I know: Your losses still don't go away. But rebalancing now can be a lot less painful as a result.Absolutely nobody knows what will happen next in the markets. Things could stabilize, or they could plunge further. All you can do is to consider the odds.And the odds suggest that a balanced portfolio offers the best trade-off between risk and reward. Take a look at municipal bonds, an oft-overlooked investment. These bonds have rallied somewhat since their lows last fall, and are still paying higher dividends than Treasurys. That's especially true of longer-term municipals. Yet Treasurys are taxable while municipal bond income is largely exempt from federal income tax. The default risk in a broadly-based municipals bond fund is negligible. History says they are almost as secure as Treasurys -- and right now seem like a much better value, especially for higher-income taxpayers.Some corporate bonds are on sale too. Vanguard's Short-Term Investment Grade bond fund is yielding 5%. Sure, corporate bonds offer some risk. Some companies will go broke and their bonds will default. But in a broadly-based fund your risk is limited. And these are short-term bonds anyway; most mature within three years. That usually means you are taking on a lot less risk, both in terms of default and inflation.Utility stocks, usually such reliable performers, are also down a long way. The same is true of many blue-chip stocks. From telecoms to food companies to big tobacco, lots of them are now offering fat dividend yields. Of course dividends are not guaranteed. Some companies, perhaps even many, will cut payouts if times get worse. But at these prices, you'll be fairly well rewarded for the risk.Look overseas. Many foreign stock markets are really cheap right now, as are lots of foreign government bonds. Standard financial advice says those foreign bonds are 'risky.' But many of those governments manage their finances a lot more prudently than we do. It's hard to see how this crisis ends well for the US dollar. Moving some of your money overseas helps shield you in the event of a dollasr crashe.Gold is back up but many gold mining stocks, too, are still on the floor. If you can't stand the turmoil, you can also move some money into some 'market neutral' or 'absolute return' mutual funds that try to produce steadier returns in all markets. And this could be a good time to look into specialist stock market funds that use derivatives to generate extra income and reduce volatility. Some, such as the Gateway fund, have pretty long and respectable track records.There are no easy answers in today's market. We are living through history. Investors need nerves and stomachs of steel.History shows many ordinary investors tend to bail out of the market at just the wrong time. Shares may indeed fall much further, but that is far from guaranteed. Markets move in anticipation of events. And many stocks are now very cheap.These strategies may offer less volatility than a simple set of stock market funds, but they will not eliminate volatility altogether. Still, there are plenty of alternatives to simply tying yourself to Wall Street, or bailing from the markets altogether.-By Brett Arends-0-Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.