What's Better Than Gold? Gold Miners

纽蒙特(Newmont Mining Corp.)和Goldcorp这两家黄金公司都将在周四公布季度业绩，投资者必须要问：公司高管们对2009年的业绩预期是否过于保守了？眼下，黄金价格再次逼近每盎司1,000美元。一年多前，金价在达到1,030美元后止步。不过目前的形势是，影响采掘成本的最主要因素──油价，已经由去年的每桶一百多美元回落至不到35美元。金价上涨和成本结构收缩会提升利润。但BMO Capital Markets驻多伦多分析师大卫•霍顿(David Haughton)说，黄金矿产商对今年的业绩形势估计得“非常保守”。例子之一便是纽蒙特最近公布的2009年经营前景报告。该公司是以平均油价70美元为假设基础作出的预测。U.S. Global Investors研究部主管约翰•德里克(John Derrick)说，能源价格飙升是2008年的一个重大主题，而且在2009年依然如此，不过这一次是因为它们的价格下跌。投资者将会在电话会议中向公司问及此事。德里克持有纽蒙特Goldcorp和Barrick Gold的股票，其中Barrick Gold拟于周五公布业绩。德里克预计，如果油价和美元汇率维持在当前水平，黄金行业平均可以节省10%至15%的成本。德里克说，“换句话说，黄金业有可能在今年将充满了惊喜。”一些专业的黄金投资者现在认为，黄金股的走势将好于金价本身。 Midas Fund的资产组合经理汤姆•温米尔(Tom Winmill)说，我打算长期持有大量黄金股。Midas Fund是一只掌管着7,700万美元资金的基金。他透露，该基金投在金条上的资金比例正在缩小。Jeff D. Opdyke 相关阅读黄金投资一枝独秀 2009-02-05今年可持有黄金 2009-01-272009年金价向何处去？ 2009-01-212009年金价或有大起伏 2009-01-02通缩忧虑未拖累金价下行 2008-12-22 本文涉及股票或公司document.write (truthmeter('2009年02月19日10:37', 'GG'));Goldcorp Inc.总部地点：加拿大(Canada)上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：GGdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月19日10:37', 'NEM'));纽蒙特英文名称：Newmont Mining Corp.总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：NEMdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月19日10:37', 'XTO'));XTO Energy Inc.总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：XTOdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月19日10:37', 'ABX'));Barrick Gold Corp.总部地点：加拿大(Canada)上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：ABXdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月19日10:37', 'NBL'));Noble Energy Inc.总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：NBLdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月19日10:37', 'G.T'));Goldcorp Inc.总部地点：加拿大(Canada)上市地点：多伦多股票代码：Gdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月19日10:37', 'ABX.T'));Barrick Gold Corp.总部地点：加拿大(Canada)上市地点：多伦多股票代码：ABX


As Newmont Mining and Goldcorp both prepare to report quarterly results Thursday, investors have to ask: Are company executives too conservative with 2009 expectations? Gold prices once again are near $1,000 an ounce. A bit more than a year ago they topped out at $1,030. But this time the environment for energy, one of mining's biggest costs, is different. Oil, above $100 a barrel last year, is below $35. Rising gold prices and a shrinking cost structure pump up profits. But miners 'are being very conservative' in their guidance for the year, says David Haughton, analyst in Toronto at BMO Capital Markets. Case in point: Newmont Mining's recent 2009 operating outlook. Company estimates are predicated on oil averaging $70 a barrel. John Derrick, director of research at U.S. Global Investors, which owns shares in Newmont, Goldcorp and Barrick Gold, which reports Friday, says 'rising energy costs were a big issue in 2008, and they'll be a big issue in '09 because they're down. Investors will be asking companies about this' in conference calls. If oil prices and the dollar remain at current levels, Mr. Haughton foresees 'cost savings of 10% to 15% for the industry, on average.' Translation: 'Positive earnings surprises are a possibility through the year,' Mr. Derrick says. Some professional gold investors now think that mining stocks will outperform the metal itself. 'I would heavily prefer stocks over a long period of time,' says Tom Winmill, portfolio manager at the $77 million Midas Fund. The fund has a 'diminishing part of assets' invested in bullion, Mr. Winmill said. Jeff D. Opdyke