Fed Faces Constraints In Market-Revival Role

奥巴马政府周三公布计划，将大幅扩大美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)和财政部联手推出的一项计划，刺激消费支出。仅仅一天之后，美联储面临的严峻挑战就显露出了迹象。美联储发放的用于振兴市场的贷款中有越来越多是长期贷款。当经济复苏，美联储想减少金融系统中的现金以提高利率时，这些长期贷款承诺可能很难收回。当美联储认为上调利率的时机已经成熟的时候，它会努力通过缩减大规模贷款和证券投资组合，让现金流出金融系统。不过，如果美联储的长期贷款承诺负担过重的话，就可能会难以实现这个目标。（美联储通过出售证券来提高利率。出售证券会减少市场中的美元供应量。想降低利率的时候，美联储会反过来收购证券。）由于美联储对保持自己的各种货币政策选择心存顾虑，它可能会在进一步推进长期贷款上犹豫不决。美国企业研究所(American Enterprise Institute)经济学家前美联储官员莱因哈特(Vincent Reinhart)说，将来低价出售此类资产在交投清淡流动不良的市场上可能会是个问题。美联储已经采取措施，使自己在这样的时刻到来时有备无患。可能还会有更多的措施出台。财政部和美联储官员周三在联合声明中说，美联储必须能够在救助过程中控制自己的资产负债表，财政部则可能努力让国会立法，赋予它更多的操作空间。美联储在救助计划中扮演了主角，原因之一是它将帮助奥巴马政府精打细算地延长可支配有限资金的使用时间。在新的消费支出计划中，财政部将提供1,000亿美元资金，而美联储则会用这笔钱作为缓冲，发放最高可达1万亿美元的三年期贷款，用来启动市场，刺激消费支出。不过制约正在开始显露。在制定最新救助计划的时候，美联储官员不愿为那些将收购华尔街公司不良资产的银行提供资金。美联储可能会提供过渡性融资，帮助银行起步，不过不会提供长期贷款。美联储也没有采纳收购长期政府债券的提议。收购国债可能会抬高其价格，降低收益。这可能会帮助获得贷款的消费者和企业，或是发行以国债收益率为基准的债券的企业。不过，这也将意味着更多的长期资产。收购国债的想法仍在讨论之中，不过由于官员们已经致力于其他计划，他们非常谨慎不要在收购国债上步伐太快。美联储主席贝南克(Ben Bernanke)周二在国会发表证词时，没有提及收购国债的想法，尽管在其他场合他曾表示有这种可能。美联储的资产负债规模已经从不足9,000亿美元增加至1.8万亿美元。当复苏最终到来时，美联储的资产负债将需要缩小。美联储的很多承诺都是短期的，会随着经济的好转自然终止，比如向美国企业提供的商业票据放贷。不过，“贱卖”长期承诺可能会造成一些市场出现动荡。为提高灵活性，美联储希望财政部能获准借钱并把钱存放在美联储。美联储从这类存款中获得的现金将方便其逐渐消除长期资产。去年随着美联储资产负债规模开始膨胀，财政部曾把钱存放在美联储。不过由于政府借债的激增，它被迫退出了这一计划。现在官员们可能会请求国会批准重新启动这个计划，而不要对财政部的借款设置严格限额。Jon Hilsenrath相关阅读美联储救市干扰市场自我修复 2009-02-06美联储货币互换举措将限制美元涨幅 2009-02-04美联储  PK 国债投资者 2009-02-03美联储准备买进美国国债 2009-01-29美联储提高警惕 防救助资金滥用 2009-01-26美联储将继续专注于利率和贷款手段 2009-01-23美联储成了不良资产回收站 2009-01-22


A day after the Obama administration announced plans for a massive expansion of a joint-Federal Reserve and Treasury program to revive consumer lending, signs are emerging of challenges facing the central bank.A growing number of the dollars the Fed is lending out to revive markets are long-term loans. Those long-term commitments could be difficult to pull back when the economy recovers and the Fed wants to drain the financial system of cash to raise interest rates.When the Fed believes the time has come to raise interest rates, it would seek to pull cash out of the financial system by reducing the size of its massive portfolio of loans and securities. But if it is loaded down with long-term commitments, that could be tricky to pull off. (The Fed raises interest rates by selling securities, which reduces the amount of dollars in the market. It does the opposite -- buys securities -- when it lowers rates.)Because the Fed worries about preserving its monetary-policy options, it could be hesitant to push much further on long-term lending. Selling off such holdings down the road 'could be a problem in thin and illiquid markets,' said Vincent Reinhart, an American Enterprise Institute economist and former Fed staffer.The central bank has already taken steps to prepare itself for that time. More moves could be coming. In a joint release Wednesday, Treasury and Fed officials said the Fed 'must be able to manage its balance sheet' during these rescues, and that the Treasury could seek legislation from Congress to give it more maneuvering room to do that.The Fed has played a leading role in rescue programs, in part because it helps the Obama administration stretch the limited amount of dollars at its disposal.In the new consumer-lending program, the Treasury provides $100 billion of capital and the Fed uses that as a cushion against which it could make up to $1 trillion of three-year loans aimed at jump-starting markets and spurring consumer lending.But constraints are showing up. In formulating the latest rescue plan, central-bank officials were reluctant to fund a bank that will buy bad assets from Wall Street firms. The Fed might provide bridge financing to help the bank launch, but it wouldn't provide long-term loans.The Fed also has tiptoed away from a proposal to buy long-term government bonds.Buying Treasury bonds could raise their price and reduce their yield. That could help consumers and businesses who take out loans, or businesses that issue bonds, that are benchmarked to Treasury yields. But it would also mean more long-term holdings.The idea of buying Treasury bonds is still on the table, but having committed to other programs officials are wary of moving quickly on it. In testimony to Congress Tuesday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke made no mention of the idea, after having raised the possibility on other occasions.The Fed's balance sheet has grown from less than $900 billion to $1.8 trillion. It will need to shrink when recovery eventually sets in. Many of its commitments -- such as commercial-paper lending to U.S. companies -- are short-term and designed to unwind naturally as the economy improves. But selling off long-term commitments could disrupt some markets.To improve its flexibility, the Fed wants the Treasury to get permission to borrow money and leave that money on deposit with the central bank.The cash the Fed would get from such deposits would make it easier for it to unwind its long-term holdings slowly. The Treasury made such deposits last year as the Fed's balance sheet started to grow. It was forced to pull away from the program as government borrowing soared. Officials might now ask Congress for permission to resume the program without counting against Treasury borrowing limits.Jon Hilsenrath