China's Drought Could Be Sign of Things to Come

就在几十年来最严重的旱灾威胁中国的冬小麦生长并使数百万人用水短缺之际，一项近期所做的研究显示，坏事可能刚刚开始。China Photos/Getty Images陕西省一处干旱的农田利兹大学(University of Leeds)科学家们的研究显示，城市化正在使中国的小麦种植从高质量农田向抗旱能力差的较贫穷内陆地区转移，而质量较好的农田则被用来种植蔬菜和花卉等高利润作物。这篇研究报告发表在1月期的《环境科学与政策》(Environmental Science & Policy)杂志上。利兹大学可持续性研究所的研究员伊丽莎白•斯米尔顿(Elisabeth Simelton)是这份研究报告的主要作者，利兹大学一份声明援引她的话说，中国是一个正在经历巨大转变的国家，这一转变正在对土地使用产生深远影响。她说，谷物种植基本上是一项低利润产业，中国正日益依靠低质量土地来种植谷物，而这些土地的抗旱能力很差。小麦的低价格可能也对今年的旱灾起了推波助澜作用。路透社(Reuters)的报导说，由于小麦卖不出高价，小麦种植者没有什么动力额外花钱去修建高成本的水利灌溉设施。农民需要花2美元成本来保护价值1美元的农作物免受灾害侵袭。尽管有不少坏消息，但目前似乎还不必担心出现食品短缺或食品价格大幅上涨，这既要归功于中国去年农业丰收所积累下的粮食储备，也是因为中国的应急灌溉设施仍有可能将一部分农作物挽救过来。截至刚刚过去的这个周末，芝加哥交易所小麦期货的价格基本上回吐了上周四的涨幅，当时有关中国发生旱灾的消息曾推动小麦期货的价格上涨。在缺乏亮点的今年，农产品供应趋紧实际上对农民们是个好消息。作物减产有可能推高农产品价格，增加农民收入，鉴于政府估计由于全球经济增长放缓中国约2,000万农民工可能丢掉在城里的工作，被迫返回家乡，这尤其是个好消息。Shai Oster（“中国日志”（China Journal）关注全球第一人口大国的发展变化，《华尔街日报》获奖团队数十位记者倾情献稿，Sky Canaves主笔。欢迎读者发送邮件至[e-mail]或在下面评论栏中发表评论和建议。）相关阅读中国政府下令全力抗旱 2009-02-06


Even as the worst drought in decades is threatening China's winter wheat crops and leaving millions exposed to water shortages, a recent study suggests this could be just the beginning.Urbanization is pushing China's wheat harvest away from higher quality farmland and further inland to poorer, drought-vulnerable regions, while the better land is used for high-profit crops such as vegetables or flowers, according to a study by scientists at the University of Leeds, published in the January issue of Environmental Science & Policy.'China is a country undergoing a massive transformation, which is having a profound effect on land use,' said Elisabeth Simelton, research fellow at the Sustainability Research Institute at the University of Leeds, and lead author of the study, according to a statement by the university. 'Growing grain is a fundamentally low profit exercise, and is increasingly being carried out on low quality land with high vulnerability to drought.'Low prices for wheat may have contributed to this year's problems. According to Reuters, depressed wheat prices leave little incentive to spend the extra money on costly irrigation. Farmers need to spend $2 to protect $1 worth of crops.Despite the bad news, so far there appears to be little concern of food shortages or even food inflation, thanks to a big cushion in state granary stockpiles from last year's bumper harvest and the chance that emergency irrigation could still save some crops. By the weekend, wheat futures traded in Chicago largely gave up gains by the made after a brief bump Thursday as new of the drought circulated.A tighter supply could actually spell good news for farmers in a year with little to brighten the horizon. Less crops could demand higher prices and earn higher income  - especially good news at a time when the government estimates that some 20 million migrant workers have lost their factory jobs in the cities as a result of the global slowdown and could be heading back to the countryside.Shai Oster