China Trade Surplus Widens In January

今年1月份中国出口大幅放缓进口骤减，凸显出全球放缓对这个世界第三大经济体的影响，也表明到目前为止中国的刺激计划并没有奏效。据中国政府周三公布的数据，1月份出口较去年同期下滑17.5%，进口减少43.1%。中国的贸易顺差因此扩大至391.1亿美元。中国的贸易顺差最近一直是华盛顿方面批评的焦点。经济学家表示，由于今年中国的春节是在1月份，在考察1月份进出口数据时应该考虑到这一点。为期一周的春节假期里，中国的经济实际上处于停运状态。去年春节是在2月份。中国有关部门周三公布的数据显示，经春节假期因素调整后，出口增长6.8%，进口下滑26.4%。尽管如此，1月份的数据仍比大多数经济学家预测的要糟糕得多。花旗集团(Citigroup)驻香港经济学家彭垦说，除春节因素外，确实存在经济疲软的因素，数据仍是负面的。持续扩大的贸易顺差意味着众所瞩目的中国巨额外汇储备很可能继续增加。中国现有外汇储备约2万亿美元，居世界首位。其中很大一部分被用来购买美国国债，中国也成了美国政府单一最大债权国。经济学家说，出口疲弱是意料之中的事，而进口的下滑则有着更为重大的意义。中国约有一半的进口是用于加工出口产品的原材料，也就是说进口起到了出口领先指标的作用。穆迪(Moody's)经济学家陈颍嘉(Sherman Chan)说，今年出口很可能会出现下降。进口下滑进一步加剧了人们的担忧，他们担心中国将无法为陷入困境的全球经济提供支持。中国是仍在增长的为数不多的几个国家之一。中国对外国产品和大宗商品的需求减少已经对周边国家和地区的经济造成了重创。韩国和台湾都公布说1月份出口大幅下滑，原因是中国的需求不振。上个月，台湾的出口下滑44%，创下历史最大降幅，其中对大陆的出口下降了近60%；韩国的出口则下滑了33%。Kevin Lee/Bloomberg News/Landov一名男子骑车经过上海一处集装箱港口中国有部分人士对经济前景持乐观看法，认为中国经济可能已经走出了低谷，但政府周三公布的数据却与之相左。中国基准股指今年以来上涨了24%，原因是投资者预计去年11月公布的5,860亿美元一揽子刺激计划会提振经济。有些迹象显示刺激计划开始发挥成效。去年12月份基础设施支出增长33%，而去年上半年增幅为16%。此外，银行放贷也有所增加。政府周三还公布了提振造船业的措施，再次显示了政府的支持。新华社报导称，国务院将敦促银行向购买中国船舶的企业提供更多贷款，并将在2012年前扩大对国内货轮买家的财政和金融支持。新增船舶订单预计将降至去年的三分之一至一半，这对中国是个沉重的打击，因为中国是世界最主要的船舶制造国之一。中国已经推出了一系列的补贴和减税措施，以提振包括汽车钢铁和纺织业等在内的各个行业。不过这些措施似乎并没有刺激太多的国内需求，让进口下滑止步。经济学家说，这可能有好几个原因，其中之一是中国的产能过剩。中国必须首先消化掉过剩的产能，才能开始进口。一些经济学家说，5,860亿美元的一揽子刺激计划规模很不真实。据花旗最近的研究显示，其中约有四分之三看起来都是“重新包装”的铁路和其他基础设施项目。中国刺激计划的细节仍不够具体。因此，只有当美国和欧洲局势逆转时，才可能实现复苏。摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase & Co..)中国证券市场负责人李晶(Jing Ulrich)说，你可以有各种各样的理由，不过最主要的一个是中国的大客户陷入了衰退，而且短期内不会好转。Ian Johnson / Terence Poon相关阅读中国1月份进出口额大幅下降 2009-02-11美国贸易逆差下降不值得太高兴 2009-02-11


China's exports slowed dramatically last month and imports plummeted, highlighting the effects of the global slowdown on the world's third-largest economy and the failure of its stimulus program to gain traction so far.Exports in January fell 17.5% from a year earlier and imports dropped 43.1%, according to Chinese government data released Wednesday. That boosted the country's trade surplus -- at the center of recent criticism from Washington -- to $39.11 billion.Economists said the data should be taken advisedly because China's Lunar New Year festival fell in January this year. Last year, the week-long holiday -- when the nation's economy in effect shuts down -- took place in February. Adjusted figures issued Wednesday by Chinese authorities showed that when the holiday is taken into account, exports rose 6.8% and imports fell 26.4%.Still, the January figures were significantly worse than most economists had anticipated. 'There's entrenched weakness beyond the holiday,' said Ken Peng, an economist with Citigroup in Hong Kong. 'The data is still negative.'The continued, wide trade surplus means that China's much-watched stockpile of foreign exchange -- already about $2 trillion -- is likely to continue rising. The country already has the largest foreign reserves in the world and uses much of it to buy U.S. Treasurys, making it the biggest single creditor to the U.S. government.While weakness in exports was expected, the fall in imports is arguably more significant, economists said. About half of China's imports are raw materials used to produce exports, meaning that imports function like a leading indicator for exports. This year, exports are likely to contract, said Sherman Chan, an economist with Moody's.The falling imports further reinforce concerns that China -- one of the few powers still growing -- will be unable to provide support for the suffering global economy. Already, China's shrinking appetite for foreign goods and commodities has battered the economies of its neighbors. South Korea and Taiwan both reported sharply lower exports during January, due to weak demand from China. Taiwan's exports fell a record 44% last month -- including a nearly 60% drop to mainland China -- while South Korea's fell 33%.Wednesday's figures run against a modest wave of optimism in China that the economy may have put the worst behind it. China's benchmark stock index is up 24% this year, as investors have hoped that a $586 stimulus package announced in November will boost the economy. There are some signs that the stimulus is working. Infrastructure spending was up 33% in December, compared with 16% during the first half of the year. In addition, bank lending has increased.In another sign of support, the government on Wednesday announced measures to prop up the shipbuilding industry. China's cabinet, the State Council, will push banks to lend more to buyers of Chinese-made ships, and will extend 'fiscal and financial support' to domestic buyers of freighters until 2012, the official Xinhua news agency reported. Orders for new ships are expected to fall to between one-third and one-half of last year's -- a blow to China, which is one of the world's major shipbuilders.China has launched a series of subsidies and tax cuts to bolster various industries, including automobiles, steel and textiles. The measures don't seem to have spurred enough domestic demand to stop the slide in imports. That could be due to several factors, economists said, including overcapacity in China, which arguably would have to be used up first before the country would begin importing.Some economists say the $586 billion figure is grossly distorted. About three-quarters of it appears to be repackaged railway and other infrastructure projects, according to recent research by Citigroup. Details of China's stimulus plan remain sketchy.That makes a turnaround likely only when the U.S. and Europe reverse course. 'You can come up with all sorts of reasons but the main one is China's biggest customers are in recession,' said Jing Ulrich, head of China equities for J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.. 'And this won't improve in the near future.'Ian Johnson / Terence Poon