From the Depths: China Invests in Submarines

中国海军实力的壮大最近成为媒体关注的焦点，起因是中国在现代历史上首次在远海部署海军力量，向亚丁湾派遣了两艘驱逐舰和一艘补给舰，与国际社会一道打击索马里海盗。但真正引起邻国和潜在对手的海军重视的却是海面之下，中国装备更为精良的潜艇力量就在暗中游弋。中国一直在大规模投资发展潜艇实力，从俄罗斯购买或是自行建造潜艇，以抵消拥有更强大的水面舰艇实力的美国等海军的优势。AFP/Getty Images中国海军战士这是中国不对称战争战略的组成部分。对此，美国方面认为，这种做法直接针对的目标就是航空母舰战斗群。航空母舰战斗群是美国海军舰队的核心，也是美国向全球投放军事力量能力的核心。美国军方担心，中国发展潜艇最为迫切的目的，是在大陆与台湾爆发冲突时推迟或阻止美国的干预。上周二，美国科学家联合会(Federation of American Scientists)发布报告称，美国海军情报组织统计中国攻击潜艇在2008年共进行了12次“出海巡逻”，是前一年的两倍，也是迄今为止的最高纪录。该组织是通过《信息自由法案》(Freedom of Information Act)的要求得到的这些信息。尚不清楚怎样才算“出海巡逻”，但这应该意味着长时间的航行。尽管这个水平大大低于美国攻击潜艇的巡逻次数，但这个次数已经超过了中国的北部邻国俄罗斯的出海巡逻次数。中国共有约50艘攻击性潜艇和弹道导弹核潜艇。据美国科学家联合会收到的美国情报机构的报告，这些弹道导弹核潜艇从未进行过巡逻。近年来，中国从俄罗斯购买了新型基洛级柴油动力潜艇，中国也在自行建造潜艇，其中包括核潜艇。基洛级潜艇尤其隐蔽，在水下航行时难以被发现。但即使是中国数量众多的老式潜艇也能制造巨大的挑战，尤其是如果中国在发生冲突时将它们大量部署在台湾周围水域的情况下。寻找水下潜艇对于任何海军而言都是最艰巨的任务，台湾海峡的水深较浅更进一步加大了这种难度。即使是被落后潜艇所发射的鱼雷击中的可能性，也足以减缓美国海军的行动速度。中国对海军及其它军事力量的投资促使美国和其它国家呼吁北京方面增加透明度。自去年美国批准向台湾的一笔军售之后，中美两军官员之间的高级别对话已基本上冻结。美国太平洋地区指挥官说，自奥巴马上台至今还没有出现解冻的迹象。海军上将蒂莫西•基廷(Timothy Keating)上周四在华盛顿接受路透社Reuters采访时说，自新政府上任以来，我没有发现有任何变化。他说，双方仍有接触，但我们希望的是比目前更正式更为定期化和更加频繁的对话。Gordon Fairclough（“中国日志”（China Journal）关注全球第一人口大国的发展变化，《华尔街日报》获奖团队数十位记者倾情献稿，Sky Canaves主笔。欢迎读者发送邮件至[e-mail]或在下面评论栏中发表评论和建议。）


China's increasingly capable navy has been in the headlines lately for its first distant-waters deployment in modern history  - two destroyers and a supply ship dispatched to the Gulf of Aden to join the international battle against Somali pirates.But what is really drawing attention from rival navies and the country's neighbors is action below the surface, where China's better-equipped submarine force lurks. China has been making substantial investments in subs -  buying some from Russia and building their own -  in an effort to offset the advantages of navies with bigger, stronger surface fleets, such as that of the U.S.It's part of a Chinese strategy of asymmetric warfare. In this case, U.S. planners see it as directed primarily against the aircraft carrier battle groups that are at the core of the U.S. fleet and America's ability to project military power around the globe. The immediate aim, the U.S. military fears, is to delay or prevent U.S. intervention in any conflict between China and Taiwan.On Tuesday, the Federation of American Scientists issued a report saying that U.S. naval intelligence counted 12 'patrols' by Chinese attack submarines in 2008 -  double the number in the previous year and the highest so far recorded. The group received the information through a Freedom of Information Act request. It is unclear what constitutes a patrol, but it is thought to mean an extended voyage.While well below the likely level of U.S. attack submarine patrols, the number appears to be higher than the number undertaken by China's northern neighbor, Russia. China has a fleet of about 50 attack submarines as well as submarines designed to carry nuclear-armed ballistic missiles. Those missile subs have never gone on a patrol, according to U.S. intelligence reports received by the FAS.In recent years, China has acquired new, so-called Kilo class diesel-powered submarines from Russia, adding them to a fleet that also includes home-grown attack subs, including some powered by nuclear reactors. The Kilo subs are especially stealthy and hard to detect when submerged.But even China's sizable number of outmoded submarine clunkers present a naval challenge   especially if China were to use them to flood the waters around Taiwan in the event of conflict there. Finding subs underwater is one of the hardest tasks for any navy and the shallow waters of the Taiwan strait make it even harder. The prospect of a torpedo hit from even a low-tech sub would likely be enough to slow down U.S. naval operations.China's investments in its navy and the rest of its armed forces have prompted calls from Washington and other capitals for more transparency on the part of Beijing. High-level dialogue between Chinese and U.S. officers has been essentially frozen since Washington approved an arms-sale deal with Taiwan last year.So far, the U.S. Pacific commander says, there has been no thaw since President Barack Obama took office. 'I have seen no change since the new administration came in,' Admiral Timothy Keating told Reuters in an interview in Washington Thursday. He said there are still contacts between the two sides, but that 'We would much prefer it to be a more formal, a more regular and a more frequent dialogue than it is right now.'Gordon Fairclough