Which Nation Will Take Lead On Recovery

哪国将率先复苏？美国引领全球经济陷入眼下的困境，但它或许无力将大家解脱出来。外汇和其他市场的许多人士仍认为它能。据高盛公司(Goldman Sachs)经济学家斯多普(Thomas Stolper)说，近期高盛对其外汇交易客户所作的调查显示，有47%的受访者预计美国经济将率先复苏。他们的部分依据纯粹是从时间上考虑的，他们认为，美国2007年12月就进入衰退，早于全球大部分地区数月，因此，它很自然地也会最先走出衰退。更基本的原因是，没有哪个国家在应对衰退方面的支出力度超过美国政府，后者实施了7,000亿美元的问题资产救助计划，另一项8,000亿美元的经济刺激计划正在国会讨论中。联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)是全球各国央行中第一家将利率降至接近零水平的。这显示作为世界头号经济大国的美国应该是第一个刺激经济恢复生机的国家。除美国外，还有谁有可能扮演率先复苏的角色？世界第二大经济体欧元区对危机反应迟缓，且区内监管规定混杂，成员国遭遇到的经济困境程度不同。国际货币基金组织预计，2009年欧元区经济将收缩2%。全球第三大经济体被许多人寄以厚望的中国对全球出口需求仍太过依赖，恐怕难以担当引领全球经济摆脱衰退的角色。而仍身处二十年经济低迷期的第四大经济体日本或许会是2009年经济形势最糟的国家之一。如此看来，美国仍是全球各国中有可能最先走出衰退的国家。不幸的是，目前它也是问题最严重的国家。目前美国政府和私人领域需要偿付的债务负担合计已相当于国内生产总值的近350%，这一水平必须降低。芝加哥债券市场策略师西蒙斯(Howard Simons)说，我们是世界最大的债务国，整个经济建立在人为抬高的资产之上，我们一直借钱消费，这让我们陷入一种结构性失衡。因此，我认为我们不会是最先走出衰退的国家。消除债务负担将不可避免地导致美国的消费需求下降，而这正是全球主要的经济增长驱动力所在。复苏将花费数年时间，不过，刺激美国经济改善银行业方面的有效计划将加速这一过程。国会正在讨论经济刺激方案，财政部长盖特纳(Timothy Geithner)计划周二公布奥巴马政府的银行业救助计划。市场期待这两方面的计划双管齐下将取得成果，股市也在此推动下出现上扬。但市场之前一直对政府的行动感到失望，而且这种情况有可能再度发生。即使是最完善的计划也不会是包治百病的灵丹妙药。批评人士认为，刺激计划及已披露的银行业救助计划的具体内容要么太零碎，要么方向不对，要么两者兼而有之。如果结果证明他们的看法是对的，那么美国或许需要花费更长时间才能走向复苏。RBS Greenwich Capital国际策略总监拉斯金(Alan Ruskin)说，我对谁将率先复苏并不那么乐观，我担心，最后会是大家一起慢吞吞地像蜗牛一样从洞里爬出来。Mark Gongloff


Which Nation Will Take Lead On Recovery The U.S. led the global economy into the ditch, but it may not be able to pull it back out.Many in currency and other markets still believe it will. In a recent survey of Goldman Sachs foreign-exchange clients, a plurality of 47% expected the U.S. to recover first in the world, according to Goldman economist Thomas Stolper.Part of the logic is purely chronological: The U.S. entered recession several months before most of the world, in December 2007, so it seems natural it should exit first.More fundamentally, nobody is throwing more dollars at the problem than Uncle Sam, including the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program and an $800 billion stimulus package gestating on Capitol Hill. The Federal Reserve was the world's first central bank to cut rates to zero. That suggests the U.S., with the world's largest economy, should be the first to stimulate its way back to life.And who else is available for the job  The euro zone, which forms the world's No. 2 economy, has responded slowly to the crisis and is burdened by a hodgepodge of regulations and countries with varying degrees of economic hardship. The IMF expects its GDP to shrink 2% in 2009.The great hope of many, No. 3 China, is still too reliant on world export demand to lead a global recovery. No. 4, Japan, in the doldrums for two decades, may be among the worst economies in 2009.So the U.S. is still the world's likeliest leader. Unfortunately, it also has the world's biggest mess on its hands, with a combined government and private debt load of nearly 350% of GDP that must be trimmed.'We're the world's largest debtor, the entire economy has been based on inflating assets, and we've borrowed and spent to consume, which gave us structural imbalances,' says Howard Simons, bond strategist at Bianco Research in Chicago. 'That's why I don't think we'll be the first out.'Trimming the debt load will invariably cause a pullback in U.S. consumer demand, the world's major growth engine. Recovery will take years -- though effective plans to stimulate the U.S. economy and fix the banking sector could speed the process. Congress is working on stimulus, and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on Tuesday is due to unveil the Obama administration's bank remedy. Stocks have rallied on hope that together they will do the trick.But the market has been disappointed by government actions, and it may be again. Even the best-laid plans will not be a miracle cure. And critics have called both the stimulus package and the details that have emerged about the banking plan piecemeal, misdirected, or both.If it turns out they're on to something, U.S. may take longer to lead the way toward recovery.'I'm not all that optimistic about anyone really taking the lead,' said Alan Ruskin, chief international strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital. 'I worry this is going to be a collection of snails crawling out of a hole in parallel.'Mark Gongloff