Shooting Accuracy Takes a Dive

After every World Cup team had played once, scoring remained at historical lows in the tournament. The 32 teams combined for just 25 goals in the first 16 games of the Cup, a rate of 1.56 goals per game. That's well down from 2.44 goals in the first 16 games at the 2006 World Cup, and 2.88 goals in 2002.
在每只球队都出场亮相过一次后，本届南非世界杯的进球数仍处在历史低点。在前16场比赛中，32只球队总共踢进25个球，平均每场进球1.56个。这一数据远低于2006年德国世界杯同期的2.44个和2002年韩日世界杯的2.88个。
  
A prior post here, as well as two reports in the print Journal, offered a range of explanations, including tactics and globalization. Here's another possibility: Players may just not be shooting all that accurately. Consider Switzerland's 1-0 upset of Spain, the defending European champions, on Wednesday. The Spaniards took 25 shots, but just five were on target, and all were handled by Swiss goalie Diego Benaglio, who extended to five games Switzerland's shutout streak in World Cup competition. The Swiss weren't much more accurate, putting just two of nine shots on target, according to ESPN's match stats. Fortunately for the Swiss, one of their shots was from point-blank range with Spanish goalie Iker Casillas out of position.
Reuters西班牙多次有威胁的射门都被瑞士门将贝纳里奥化解。此前我的一篇博客以及《华尔街日报》刊登的两篇报导都对此作了解释，原因包括战术打法以及全球化的影响。今天我想提出另外一种可能，那就是球员射门不准。回顾本周三瑞士1比0击败2008年欧洲杯冠军西班牙队的那场比赛，斗牛士军团全场共有 25次射门，但只有五次射正门框范围内，这五次都被瑞士门将贝纳里奥（Diego Benaglio）化解。贝纳里奥在球队晋级的道路上已经连续五场比赛未失手。不过，瑞士队的准头也不怎么高。根据ESPN提供的数据，瑞士队全场九次射门，只有两次射正。幸运的是，其中的一次在西班牙门将卡西利亚斯（Iker Casillas ）离开球门迎前解围时近距离射进空门。
  
Overall in the Cup's first 16 games, teams took 410 shots, but just 106 of them were on target, according to ESPN's stats. That's a rate of 26%. In the first 16 games in 2006, there were 435 shots - barely more than this year. But 44% of them were on target. That percentage held for the entirety of the 2006 tournament. And 48% of shots were on goal in 2002, even as shots per game were lower than in this year's tournament so far.
ESPN 的数据显示，在本届杯赛前16场比赛中，32只队伍共有410次射门机会，其中只有106次射正，射正率为26％。相比而言，2006年世界杯前16场比赛共有435次的射门机会（与本届比赛相差无几），但是其中有44％射正，这一比例也几乎贯穿整届杯赛。在2002年韩日世界杯上，射正率为48％，当时的场均射门机会比本届杯赛截至目前的数据还低。
  
Errant shooting appears to be the decisive factor in the low-scoring start to the Cup. Of the shots on goal in teams' first games this year, 23% found the back of the net - slightly higher than the rate of 20% in the first 16 games last year, and the 18% mark for the tournament overall. This year's rate also is in line with the 23% of shots on goal that were scores in 2002.
射门失误看似是今年世界杯开场至今进球数少的决定性因素。在前16场比赛中，射正的球中只有23％最终入门，比上届杯赛的20％和历届世界杯平均18％的数字略高，而与2002年持平。
  
What might explain all the misfires? Here are some possible explanations:
射门哑火，原因何在？下面提供几个可能的解释：
  
• The ball. Some players have complained about it, and it does seem like an inordinate number of shots are sailing over the woodwork (perhaps because of the altitude, not the ball). But players must adjust to the ball at each World Cup, and an unpredictable flight can affect goalies as well as shooters.
第一，比赛用球。一些球员曾表达过对比赛用球“普天同庆”的不满。看起来的确好像飞过门框的球数多了点（也许是因为门框高度的原因，而不是球本身）。但是，每届世界杯上，球员都要适应比赛用球，诡异的飞行路线影响的不仅仅是守门员，还有射手。
  
• Lack of scoring talent. Perhaps players are shooting poorly because they are poor shooters. If that were the case, though, we might also expect scoring to be down in other top competitions. Yet during the 29 games in the knockout stage of this year's Champions League - the premier European club tournament, featuring most of the world's best players - teams scored 82 goals, compared to 59 in the equivalent 29 games in 2006.
第二，缺乏得分能力。也许球员射门不正是因为他们本来就不是好射手。但如果真是如此，其他顶级赛事的进球数也应该低。可是，在今年欧洲冠军联赛淘汰赛阶段的 29场比赛中，共有82个进球，而2006年那届比赛同样有29场比赛，总进球数则为59个。欧洲冠军联赛是欧洲顶级俱乐部赛事，集中了大部分全世界最好的球员。
  
• Stat-keeping quirks. Whether a shot is on target is a judgment call, one different scorers make differently. For instance, while ESPN recorded 25 shots for Spain, five of them on goal, in its game against Switzerland on Wednesday, those numbers were 24 and eight, respectively, according to FIFA, the tournament organizers. Similarly, while ESPN had nine shots for the Swiss, two of them on target, FIFA had eight and three, respectively. That adds up to big differences: FIFA has an overall shooting percentage - the term I'll use for percentage of shots that are on goal, whether or not they go in - for the first 16 games of 33%, compared to 26% of shots on target by ESPN's count. (It's possible this is because FIFA doesn't count blocked shots as shots.) Similarly FIFA had an overall shooting percentage of 48% in 2006, compared to 44% for ESPN. However, they corresponded closely in 2002. And both data sources agree that there was a big drop between last year and this year, and that the shooting percentage in the first 16 games in 2006 was 44%.
第三，数据统计。不管所谓的射正率这一说法是否带有主观性，不同数据统计者提供的数据会有所不同。比如，西班牙和瑞士的那场比赛，ESPN的数据是25次射门，五次射正；而赛事组织方国际足联公布的数据则是24次射门，八次射正。与此同时，ESPN数据显示瑞士队有九次射门，两次射正；国际足联的则是八次射门，三次射正。这样一算，区别就大了。国际足联得出的整体射门率（我将用这个词来表示射正的球的比例，不管最终是进还是没进）是33％，ESPN的则是 26％。（很有可能国际足联没有将被扑救的球算在其中）。类似的，2006年世界杯，国际足联统计出来的射门率是48％，而ESPN则是44％。不过在 2002年，双方的数据倒是几乎一致。两大数据来源都表示，与上届相比，本届世界杯的射门率大幅下跌。2006年，这一数字是44％。
  
• A statistical fluke. As the Montreal Canadians demonstrated during their run deep into the NHL playoffs, and the Capitals did with their early exit, some teams shoot at surprisingly high percentages, and such performances tend not to be sustainable. Perhaps players have been unlucky and will gain their shooting touch in the last three quarters of the tournament.
第四，低概率的意外。就像蒙特利尔加拿大人（Montreal Canadians）爆冷闯进冰球大联盟季后赛（NHL），而华盛顿首都队（Capitals）却早早被淘汰出局一样，有些球队的射门率出人意料地高，不过这样的表现并不能稳定地保持下去。或许，球员们只是现在还不太走运，在接下来的四分之三程比赛中他们将享受进球得分的乐趣。
  
• Parity and tactics. Every team has played effective defense at times. The tournament's weakest teams seem to have taken to heart the lesson of Greece, the stunning 2004 champions of Europe, who jammed the box with defenders and stymied high-powered offenses. Just two teams have yielded more than two goals in the first 17 games of the tournament, and both reached that ignominious mark only after losing a player to a red card. One sign that players indeed have been frustrated and pushed to take shots far from the goal: FIFA has recorded 241 shots from outside the penalty area through the first 17 games, compared to 186 shots inside the penalty area. Of the closer shots, 40% were on goal, compared to 27% on the farther shots (the rest were blocked or wide). Equivalent stats for prior tournaments aren't readily available, though, so it's impossible to say if this represents a trend toward shooting from farther away.
第五，球队兵力对峙和战术打法。每只球队时不时地都能做到有效防守。世界杯上实力最弱的球队似乎将希腊队2004年赢得欧洲杯时的排兵布阵牢记在心。当时，希腊队坚持防守反击的打法，后防线上重兵把守，将对手的强势进攻一一击退。本届世界杯前17场比赛中，只有两只球队（德国和乌拉圭）进球数超过两个，而且两队都是在对手有一名球员被红牌罚下场的情况下取得这一战绩的。有迹象表明，在对手固若金汤的防线面前，球员们被迫不得已在远离门框范围的区域里试图射门。根据国际足联的统计，前17场比赛中，有241个射门是从禁区之外的地方完成的，而在禁区里的数字是186。在近距离的射门中有40％射正，而较远距离射门的射正率则为27％（剩下的要不是被扑救，要不就是踢出边线）。不过因为其他足球赛事在这方面的数据目前尚不得知，所以还不能就此得出结论说这代表了一种较远距离射门的趋势。