四大力量颠覆软件行业

变化不仅仅是眼下政治领域的一个热门话题。Gartner公司的分析师认为，四种新兴的软件技术或者方案即将改变我们所熟知的软件行业，很可能会给软件厂商以及软件行业交付产品及服务的方式带来重大的颠覆性变化。

Gartner公司副总裁兼知名分析师Yvonne Genovese表示: “四大趋势正在改变人们使用IT的方式。我们必须评估这四大趋势或者说颠覆性力量当中的每一种，确认它会不会给行业带来影响。

Genovese认为，这些软件解决方案正变成“以用户为中心、以Web为中心、面向服务，并且通过新的交付模式来使用，比如云计算和SaaS等模式”。

Genovese认为有望改变软件行业的四大颠覆性力量包括Web 2.0和SOA等新技术的出现、软件用户的变化、软件互联网化以及软件产业集中到大厂商等。

1. Web 2.0等新技术的兴起以及与现有技术的融合。

Genovese说: “在如何运用IT技术并且提供给企业和消费者方面，IT变化和创新步伐明显加快。以SOA为中心的技术变化现在已得到了增强和补充，添加了业务流程管理、设备移动性以及Mashup功能的内容。”

他预计到2010年，Web混合应用（mashup）将成为创建复合型企业应用程序的“主导模式”。

Mashup之所以日渐流行，就是由于它们很容易创建。因为可以迅速创建混合应用程序，就有可能为我们带来一种新 的短期或一次性的应用程序。另一个好处就是，用户可以很容易地对混合内容进行个性化。混合应用可以解决内容聚合等问题，还可以满足公司用户个人的灵活性要 求: 只需结合企业内部的数据，即可处理不同的事务。

2. 软件及软件使用方式的革命性变化。

预计到2010年，SOA将在80%以上的新型关键任务应用程序和业务流程中得到运用，至少会得到局部使用。Gartner认为，由此而形成的应用环境会变得粒度更细、包容性更大、流动性更强，从而能够迅速组合、集成、编制及重复使用应用程序。

从2008年到2009年，公司必须“彻底改造流程，加强治理和规范，以便开始及管理这种转变”，此外还要评估及管理公司外部交付的应用程序。

市场对Web平台、软件即服务（SaaS）及其他IT公用服务的热情只会越来越高涨，这会加大企业对这些新型方案和服务的需求。在这个期间，IT市场的方方面面都会出现巨大变化，包括客户、供应商、投资者、企业、IT专业人士以及消费者。

3. 软件市场向支持大型生态系统的大型厂商转移。

Genovese强调，大型软件厂商（比如SAP和Oracle）已经在众多市场领域证明了它们对客户的支出具有强大的影响力。“大型厂商力求主导企业架构以及集成多厂商产品。”不过，这些大型专业厂商必然会与其他应用程序和企业架构共存。

随着套装应用程序向SOA转型，提供及操作流程元数据成为下一代软件开发的起码要求，只有大型厂商才会有丰富的资源，也只有专业厂商才会有强烈的动机。遗憾的是，大型专业厂商往往要等待很长一段时间才能消化这些技术，使得新一代复合应用程序还需要一段时间才会进入市场。

4. 软件用户和支持群体的变化。

如今，人们如何工作、何处工作、何时工作等情况出现了新的变化，加上许多公司利用互联网获取软件方面的最新更新，这些因素正在从根本上改变软件行业结构。到2015年，没有哪家公司能够获得或保持竞争优势，除非“它可以利用个体化行为、社会动态和协作的联合力量”。

大多数当前的软件侧重于满足企业的一般需要，而不是满足特定用户的具体需要。商业和IT领导面临的机遇是，要明白工作的个体化会给公司、关键流程、创新和企业内部协作带来怎样的影响。IT部门购置的软件、硬件和服务将会有多达一半取决于最终用户的喜好。

Genovese说: “我们看到，在这个逐渐成熟的行业，技术在迅速变化。厂商们更加关注‘软件业务’，而不是完全关注产品竞争。面对厂商影响力趋大而价格灵活性减弱的态势， 用户们开始寻找替代方案、遏制政策以及降低厂商转换成本的方法。厂商如何应对这些变化和压力，从根本上决定了在未来五年竞争格局会出现怎样的变化。”

October 20, 2008, 09:47 AM — CIO.com —

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Change is not just a political hot topic these days. According to a Gartner analyst, four emerging software solutions are reshaping software as we know it and will likely cause major disruptions to vendors and how the software industry delivers its products and services.

"Four overarching trends are reshaping how IT is used in the workplace. Each of these megatrends or disrupters must be evaluated to determine if it will have an effect on the business," said Yvonne Genovese, vice president and distinguished analyst at Gartner, at the Gartner Symposium/ITxpo in Orlando, Fla.

These software solutions are "changing to be user-centric, Web-centric, service-oriented and utilized through new delivery models, such as cloud and software as a <nobr style="font-weight: normal ! important; font-size: 100% ! important;">service<img style="border: 0pt none ; margin: 0pt; padding: 0pt; height: 10px; width: 10px; position: relative; top: 1px; left: 1px; float: none;" src="http://images.intellitxt.com/ast/adTypes/mag-glass_10x10.gif"></nobr>," noted Genovese, in a press release from the event.

Here are the four major disruptions to the software industry that Genovese has identified:

Disrupter No. 1: Rise in New Technologies and Convergence of Existing Technologies. "The IT market has reached a period of accelerated change and innovation in how IT is applied and delivered to businesses and consumers," states the release. "Technology changes that have been centered on SOA migration have now been augmented to include business process <nobr style="font-weight: normal ! important; font-size: 100% ! important;">management<img style="border: 0pt none ; margin: 0pt; padding: 0pt; height: 10px; width: 10px; position: relative; top: 1px; left: 1px; float: none;" src="http://images.intellitxt.com/ast/adTypes/mag-glass_10x10.gif"></nobr>, device portability and mashup-capable content."

By 2010, for example, Genovese predicts that Web mashups will be the "dominant model" for the creation of composite enterprise applications. (To read about Oracle's efforts on its next-gen applications, see "Oracle Fusion Applications: Is 2010 Delivery Too Little, Too Late, or Smart Strategy?")
"Mashup popularity stems from the ease with which mashups can be created. Because mashup applications can be created on the fly, they open up possibilities for a new class of more short-term or disposable applications that could never meet the criteria for corporate investment," says Genovese. "Another benefit is that users can easily personalize mashup content displays. Mashups can resolve issues such as content aggregation and the needs of business users to have the personal flexibility to do different things by combining data from within and outside the enterprise."

Disrupter No. 2: Change in Software User and Support Demographics. Changes in how, where and when everyone works, as well as innovative methods in how companies obtain their software using the Internet, are fundamentally altering the structure of business. By 2015, Genovese says, no company will be able to build or sustain a competitive advantage unless "it capitalizes on the combined power of individualized behaviors, social dynamics and collaboration."

"Most current software is focused on general enterprise needs rather than user-specific needs," Genovese says. "The opportunity for business and IT leaders is to understand how the individualization of work will affect businesses, critical processes, innovation and inter-enterprise collaboration. End-user preferences will decide as much as half of all software, hardware and service acquisitions made by IT." (See "P&G Flirts with Google Apps and Scares the Bejesus Out of Microsoft" for an inside account of why P&G users wanted to use Google Apps.)

Disrupter No. 3: Revolutionary Changes in Software and How it is Consumed. Genovese predicts that by 2010, SOA will be used, at least in part, in more than 80 percent of new, mission-critical applications and business processes. "The resulting future application environment will be more granular, inclusive and fluid to enable rapid composition, integration, orchestration and reuse," according to Gartner.

During 2008 and 2009, Genovese states that businesses must "radically re-engineer their processes, governance and disciplines to initiate and manage this transition" as well as evaluate and manage external and off-premises delivery of applications.

"Market excitement over Web platforms, SaaS and other IT utility services will only intensify, and this will increase business buyers' appetites for these new options and services," says Genovese. "This period will see huge changes in all facets of the IT market including clients, providers, investors, business and IT professionals and consumers."

Disrupter No. 4: Software Market Moves to Megavendors Supporting Large Ecosystems. Software megavendors (SAP and Oracle, for example) have proven their impact and influence over customer spending across a range of markets, Genovese notes. "Megavendors seek to dominate enterprise architecture and the terms of integration in multivendor portfolios," she adds. However, focused vendors (a.k.a., best of breed) must coexist with other applications and with enterprise architecture.

"As the transformation to SOA for packaged applications and the exposing and manipulation of process metadata become minimum requirements for the next generation, it is megavendors that will have the resources, and focused vendors that will have the incentive," Genovese added. Unfortunately, she stated that focused, best-of-breed vendors face a long time before a next generation of open, composite applications drives the market and opens it to a wider range of vendors.

"We see rapidly changing technology in an industry that seems to be maturing. Vendors are focusing more on the 'business of software' rather than solely on product competition," Genovese says. "Users faced with increased vendor power and lower price flexibility are looking for alternatives, containment strategies and ways to lower vendor switch costs. How the vendors react to these changes and pressures will be the basis for changes in their competition over the next five years."