Clean Coal in China: Why It's a Non-Starter

根据传统看法，清洁煤是中国的希望所在，而中国也是清洁煤的希望所在。这些看法不无道理──作为世界上最大的温室气体排放国，中国经济的快速增长需要有煤炭作为动力。斯坦福大学一份引起关注的最新研究报告说，忘掉这点吧。也就是说，中国可能只会忙于清洁煤技术的研发，但这并不意味着中国将会广泛使用这项技术。这份研究报告中说，事实上，中国相互交织的根本利益──诸如能源安全经济增长和发展，以及宏观经济的稳定──与碳捕集和封存的大规模实施存在直接矛盾，除非这种实施基本完全由外部资金所支持。结论看来就是这样的。迄今为止，中国一直愿意开展清洁煤示范项目，与美国政界和美国能源公司签订了协定，但那基本上只是为了对冲风险。大规模推出清洁煤会给中国带来诸多棘手问题，最起码的一点是捕集碳排放的清洁煤电厂的用煤量比普通电厂更多。中国的煤炭供应链已经捉襟见肘；将煤炭产量提高20%以处理清洁煤发电问题将耗资至少150亿美元，使本已昂贵的清洁煤变得更贵。正如中国自己承认的，中国的电力市场不是为清洁煤经济而建的。在正在研究对碳排放定价的西方国家，你几乎可以看到清洁煤是如何在日常生活中具有经济意义的。中国并未考虑设定排放上限，或对碳进行定价。中国的电力公司甚至无法应对煤炭成本的上涨，更不用说清理这些东西的成本了：如果中国电力市场的结构意味着发电厂只能勉强支持煤炭的成本，支持碳捕集和封存的成本目前就不可能在电力行业重大改革的考虑之列了。那么，解决方案是什么？富裕国家可以承受全部开销──斯坦福大学估计为每年250亿美元至300亿美元。这在美国国会内部应该不难通过。或许中国只会将重点放到提高现有燃煤电厂的效率上。研究报告说，达到欧洲的燃煤效率水平就会将中国的煤炭排放物数量降低20%。如果不是清洁煤，那么更为清洁的煤炭可能是世界上最大气候难题之一的唯一现实的解决办法。Keith Johnson相关阅读中国对过热的清洁能源业踩刹车 2009-08-31美国清洁能源立法无损产油国影响力 2009-08-28原声视频：清洁能源不清洁 2009-07-03中国发展清洁能源任重道远 2009-04-21原声视频：清洁煤炭技术的发展进程(中文字幕) 2009-03-23


According to conventional wisdom, clean coal is the great hope for China, and China is the great hope for clean coal. Makes sense--the world's biggest greenhouse-gas emitter has a fast-growing economy powered by coal.Fuhgeddaboutit, says a fascinating new paper from Stanford. That is, China may be busy fiddling with clean-coal technology, but that doesn't mean the country is going to widely deploy the technology.'In fact, fundamental and interrelated Chinese interests--in energy security, economic growth and development, and macroeconomic stability--directly argue against large-scale implementation of [carbon capture and storage] in China unless such an implementation can be almost entirely supported by outside funding,' the paper says. (There's more here at Bloomberg.)The argument goes like this. China has so far been willing to work on demonstration clean-coal projects, and ink deals with U.S. politicians and U.S. energy companies, but that's basically just a hedge.Rolling out clean coal at scale would create all sorts of headaches for China, starting with the fact that clean-coal plants--by capturing carbon emissions--require more coal than regular plants. China's coal supply chain is already creaky; ramping up coal production by 20% to handle clean coal would cost at least $15 billion and make already-expensive clean coal even pricier.And China's power market isn't built for the economics of clean coal, as the Chinese have admitted. In the West, where countries are studying climate laws that would put a pricetag on carbon emissions, you can almost see how clean coal one day might make economic sense.China isn't considering a cap on emissions, or a price on carbon. Its power companies can't even handle spikes in the cost of coal itself, let alone the costs of cleaning the stuff up: 'If the structure of Chinese power markets means that generators can barely support the cost of coal, supporting the cost of CCS is currently unthinkable absent major power sector reforms.'So what's the solution? Rich countries could pick up the whole tab, estimated by Stanford at $25 billion to $30 billion a year. That should be an easy sell in the U.S. Congress.Or China could just concentrate on making its existing coal-fired plants more efficient. Matching European levels of coal-fired efficiency, the paper says, would alone reduce Chinese coal emissions by 20%.Cleaner coal--if not clean coal--might just be the only realistic answer for one of the world's biggest climate conundrums.Keith Johnson