Why European Stocks Make Sense

现在欧洲市场上投资者的人气低迷程度，几乎与亚洲新兴市场上的人气兴盛程度相当。这种状况在很大程度上与经济增长状况有关──欧洲黯淡，亚洲出色。高盛(Goldman Sachs)上周将中国经济在2009年和2010年的增长预期分别上调至8.9%和10.9%。相比之下，国际货币基金组织(IMF)预计，欧盟27国经济今年可能会收缩4%。增长形势的显著差别使得投资者更不愿意投资欧洲。实际上，尽管泛欧道琼斯斯托克600指数本月以来上涨了11%，创下了至少从1992年以来的最佳月度表现，但这一增幅仍然比不上印度韩国和显著倚重于中国大陆的香港股市。但一些基金经理说，欧洲股市的估值目前引人关注，许多欧洲公司也可以给投资者涉足亚洲经济增长的机会。尽管亚洲市场表现出色，但如果出现动荡，其跌幅也比欧洲市场更加剧烈，而且中国股市很大部分是不对西方投资者开放的。汇丰(HSBC)资产配置研究部门驻伦敦负责人库克森(Richard Cookson)说，今年亚洲新兴市场的表现尤为出众。我不清楚为什么投资者会蜂拥挤进亚洲市场，而不投资欧洲市场。他说，从结构上来说，随着时间的推移，亚洲可能有更好的增长前景。问题是，未来一到两年的增长前景是否同样出色。如果不考虑中国的话，显然亚洲市场表现严重依赖于全球贸易，而全球贸易正走势蹒跚。着眼全球经济前景意味着库克森也在减持欧洲等发达市场股票，而倾向于拉美南非俄罗斯股市以及公司债。康涅狄格州Third Wave Global Investors的全球投资策略师赫博纳(Kevin Hebner)说，目前欧洲股市的预期市盈率是9倍，而亚洲股市则是较高的11倍。他说，虽然应该在投资组合中相应地增加亚洲新兴市场的比重，但现在可能还不是大举押注亚洲地区的时候。他在电子邮件中补充说，欧洲市场仍有可能迎头赶上，尤其是因为银行业状况是西方对比东方最大的担忧因素，而长时间以来我们正开始首次（有选择性地）看到银行业的一些利好消息。高盛近期开始放松了对欧洲股市持续一年的防御姿态。但该公司的“强烈买入名单”或强劲推荐股票名单内充斥了众多在中国市场有巨大销售收入的公司股票。这些股票包括了风轮机制造商西班牙的Gamesa SA和丹麦的Vestas Wind Systems AS芬兰手机巨头诺基亚(Nokia Corp.)以及荷兰半导体设备制造商ASM International NV。这些股票已经交出了出色的成绩。荷兰商业集团(ING)的分析师们说，道琼斯斯托克600指数中，25家在亚洲市场销售量最高的公司的股票自2月份以来上涨了35%，扭转了2008年5月以来几乎全部弱于大盘的表现。这些股票包括矿业巨头必和必拓(BHP Billiton PLC)半导体公司ASML Holding NV和英飞凌(Infineon)豪华珠宝公司Cie. Financiere Richemont以及消费者公司巨头联合利华(Unilever NV)。荷兰商业集团驻伦敦分析师威廉姆斯(Gareth Williams)说，那些能够直接投资亚洲的人可能会倾向于直接投资。但他说，欧洲许多大型公司实际上都是跨国公司。即便欧洲经济依旧低迷，投资这些股票也提供了进入其他增长更为迅速地区的途径，而又无须费力进行研究或是面临投资全球的汇率风险。但一些人士说，两者仍然无法相提并论，亚洲新兴市场是投资者的心仪之选。旧金山Cogo Wolf Asset Management联席首席投资长戈登(Giles Conway-Gordon)和沃尔夫(Christopher Wolf)说，数年来一直对全球经济增长起到重要推动作用的中国经济目前正在复苏，将与印度一道拉动整个亚洲地区。另一方面，欧洲经济只会继续走势蹒跚，失业状况预计会恶化，政府债台高筑，欧洲地区仍然承受着经济缺乏竞争力的苦果。他们说，总的来说，我们仍然持谨慎态度，减持所有股票投资，但正在寻求重新投资亚洲市场（即亚洲新兴市场）和印度，并会继续避开欧洲市场。Barbara Kollmeyer相关阅读公司业绩好于预期限制美股向下回调空间 2009-04-27考量股市涨跌之外的第三种思维 2009-04-24欧洲黯淡前景威胁全球复苏 2009-04-23亚开行：亚洲股市出现复苏迹象 2009-04-21


Investor gloom that surrounds Europe at the moment is almost matched by the enthusiasm for emerging Asia stock markets.Much of that is down to economic growth -- poor here, better there. Goldman Sachs last week raised its China growth forecasts to 8.9% for 2009 and 10.9% in 2010. The 27-nation European Union, however, is likely to contract 4% this year, the International Monetary Fund predicted.The diverging growth makes the hard-to-argue case for investing in Europe even harder. Indeed, although the pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index is up 11% so far this month, putting it on track for its best monthly gain since at least 1992. the gains are less than those in India, South Korea and Hong Kong, with its heavy exposure to China.But some money managers say valuations in Europe are compelling and that many European companies can give investors exposure to the Asian growth story. While Asian markets have been sizzling, any swings down also tend to be sharper than those in Europe, and much of China's stock markets are off-limits to western investors.'Emerging Asia in particular has dramatically outperformed this year. It's unclear why you would want to wade into Asia and not buy Europe,' said Richard Cookson, London-based head of asset allocation research at HSBC.'Structurally, it may be true that Asia has better growth prospects over time. The question is whether the growth prospects are as good over the next 12 to 24 months,' he said. 'Take China out of the equation for a second and it's clear that Asia is very exposed to global trade, and global trade is cratering.'Global economic prospects mean Mr. Cookson is also underweight developed-market stocks, including Europe, and prefers Latin America, South African and Russia stocks as well as corporate credit.European shares trade on nine times expected earnings, while Asia is a pricier 11 times 12-month forward earnings, said Kevin Hebner, global investment strategist at Third Wave Global Investors in Greenwich, Conn.While portfolios should overweight emerging Asian markets relative to their benchmark, this may not be the time to make a big regional bet, he said.'The chance that Europe plays catch-up is real, especially since the biggest concern about the west versus the east was the condition of the banks, and we're starting to get some good news (selectively) about banks for the first time in many moons,' he added in an email.Goldman Sachs recently began to moderate its yearlong defensive stance on European stocks. But its 'conviction buy list,' or favorite recommendations, is peppered with stocks that have significant sales in China.They include wind-turbine makers Spain's Gamesa SA and Copenhagen-based Vestas Wind Systems AS, Finnish handset giant Nokia Corp. and Dutch semiconductor-equipment maker ASM International NV.Such stocks have delivered; analysts at ING say the 25 stocks in the Stoxx 600 with the highest reported sales exposure to Asiajumped 35% since February, recovering nearly all of their underperformance since May 2008. Stocks include metals giant BHP Billiton PLC, chip plays ASML Holding NV and Infineon AG, luxury jewler Cie. Financiere Richemont SA and consumer giant Unilever NV.Those who can invest directly in Asia may prefer to do so, said Gareth Williams, London-based ING analyst. But 'many of Europe's largest companies are effectively global companies. Even if Europe's economies remain weak, these stocks offer a means of gaining exposure to other, faster-growing regions without having to take on the research burden and currency risk of investing globally,' he saidBut some say it's still no contest and that emerging Asia is the way for investors to go.'China, which has been responsible for a large chunk of global growth for some years, is now recovering and will, with India, pull the entire region along,' said Giles Conway-Gordon and Christopher Wolf, joint chief investment officers at Cogo Wolf Asset Management in San Francisco.Europe's economy, on the other hand, will simply continue to struggle, with unemployment only expected to worsen, governments waist-high in debt and the region still suffering from economic uncompetitiveness.''Overall, we are still cautious about, and underweight on, all equities but are looking to re-enter Asia (i.e. Emerging Asia), plus India and will continue to avoid Europe,' they said.Barbara Kollmeyer