Climate Change To Hurt Southeast Asia

亚洲开发银行（Asian Development Bank)的一份报告称，气候变化给亚洲造成的经济损失将比其他地区更为严重，并严重危害大米产量。大米是全球最重要的粮食作物。周一在曼谷发布的这份报告认为，到本世纪末，气候变化所造成的农产品减产及其他负面影响带来的损失总计将相当于主要东南亚国家国内生产总值(GDP)的6.7%，这一数字是全球整体预期损失水平2.6%的两倍以上。AFP一位菲律宾农民正在稻田里面劳作，此前他的庄稼刚刚经受了洪涝和虫害的侵袭，丰收无望。亚洲开发银行称气候变化已给东南亚的稻米种植带来了严重威胁。报告还指出，印尼的大米产量至多将下滑34%，菲律宾下滑75%，在全球大米最大出口国之列的泰国和越南产量也将下降。亚洲开发银行经济学家庄巨忠说，东南亚必须采取行动弥补这些损失，包括进行新的投资以维持农业生产。东南亚容易受到气候变化影响主要是因为其地理特征，其中印尼为大片群岛，泰国和越南地势低洼，大片地区临海。亚洲开发银行说，这一地区80%的人口和大部分经济活动都集中在海岸线100公里以内的地区。东南亚经济还严重依赖农业和林业，二者都容易受到气候变化的极大影响。在二氧化碳排放将对亚洲气候造成何种影响的问题上，经济学家和科学家仍争论不休，但他们基本上一致认为，亚洲的气候可能会变得更加不稳定。亚洲开发银行认为，泰国越南和印尼未来几十年的气候会更加干旱，到本世纪下半叶这种气候模式可能发生逆转。2100年，上述三国和菲律宾的年均气温可能比1900年的水平高出4.8摄氏度，而海平面将升高70厘米。亚洲开发银行说，这些变化可能导致大米减产，并给在其他方面对作物造成损害，尤其是气温升高和风暴越来越频繁的现象。在有关全球气候变化的争论中，东南亚因温室气体排放量相对较小（约占全球总量12%)，受关注的程度一直不如其他地区。但该地区是大米和其他农产品的主要供应地，农业受到的任何负面影响都会引发极大的连锁反应，从而推高食品价格。事实上，已经有一系列文章论证与温室气体排放相关的气候变化将导致世界粮食产量降低，亚开行的报告只是其中最新的一篇。联合国粮农组织(Food and Agriculture Organization)已经发出警告说，由于洪水和其他气候变化，以及只在特定温度和湿度条件下爆发的新型病虫害，从而导致作物受灾的风险加大。一些农业专家认为，东南亚仍有提高大米及其他作物产量的空间，尤其是柬埔寨和老挝部分地区，这些地区传统上产量较低，但可以通过加大灌溉投资和改良种子品种提高产量。在2008年价格飙升之后，今年大米价格大幅下跌，部分原因是印尼等国已经采取了增产措施。但许多经济学家认为，如果不在农业基础设施方面增加数十亿美元的投入，今年的增产情况很难长期保持，许多人担心，一旦世界经济从当前的衰退中复苏，消费需求加速，粮食价格可能再度飙升。泰国气象学家和气候变化专家Smith Dharmasaroja说，稻农或许可以增加储水量，在雨季储存更多的雨水，从而减轻气候变化的部分破坏作用。但随着夏季气温越来越高，大米产量肯定会下降。Patrick Barta / Leigh Murray相关阅读旱灾为中国农业敲响警钟 2009-02-10欧盟官员称中国在敏感问题上与其合作 2009-02-23泰国与越南协商稳定稻米价格 2009-02-18中国发表气候政策白皮书 2008-10-30八国峰会在援非问题上进展迟缓 2008-07-08


Economic damage from climate change will hit Southeast Asia harder than other regions and seriously jeopardize production of rice, the world's most important food crop, according to a report by the Asian Development Bank.The report, released Monday in Bangkok, found that the total cost of lost agricultural production and other negative impacts from climate change would be equivalent to as much as 6.7% of gross domestic product in major Southeast Asian countries by the end of this century, more than double the 2.6% loss estimated for the world as a whole.It also found that rice yields would decline by as much as 34% in Indonesia and 75% in the Philippines, while Thailand and Vietnam, among the world's biggest exporters of the food, would also experience declines.Southeast Asia 'will have to do something' to offset those losses, including making new investments to maintain agricultural production, says Juzhong Zhuang, an economist at the ADB.The vulnerability of Southeast Asia stems largely from its geography, which includes the vast archipelago of Indonesia and other low-lying nations such as Thailand and Vietnam with long coastlines. Some 80% of the region's population and much of its economic activity are within 100 kilometers of the coast, the ADB said. Southeast Asia's economy also relies heavily on agriculture and forestry, both of which may be affected significantly by changing weather patterns.Economists and scientists are still debating how emissions will affect climate in Asia, though generally they agree that weather patterns should become more volatile. The ADB, for its part, said it believes Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia will experience drier weather over the next several decades, with that pattern possibly reversing later in the century.Annual mean temperatures in those countries and the Philippines could rise by as much as 4.8 degrees Celsius by 2100 compared with 1990 levels, while sea levels could increase by 70 centimeters.Those changes, especially the higher temperatures and a rising incidence of storms, could combine to cut rice yields and otherwise damage crops, the ADB said.In debates on global climate change, Southeast Asia has traditionally received less scrutiny than other areas because it remains a relatively small contributor to greenhouse-gas emissions, accounting for about 12% of the world's total. But the region's role as a key supplier of rice and other agricultural commodities means any negative impact on farming could have big ripple effects, driving food prices higher.Indeed, the ADB report is only the latest in a series of papers arguing that climate changes related to emissions will reduce world food production. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has warned of increased risk of crop failures from floods and other weather changes, as well as the emergence of new pests and diseases that only flourish at specific temperatures and humidity.Some agricultural experts believe Southeast Asia still has room to expand production of rice and other crops, especially in parts of Cambodia and Laos that have traditionally had low yields, but could be lifted by more investment in irrigation and better seed varieties. Rice prices have fallen dramatically this year after spiking in 2008, in part because some countries, including Indonesia, already have boosted production.But many economists believe those gains will be hard to sustain in the long run without billions of dollars in new spending on farming infrastructure, and many fear a new surge in food prices could occur once the world economy recovers from its current recession and consumer demand accelerates.Smith Dharmasaroja, a Thai meteorologist and climate-change expert, said rice farmers might be able to mitigate some damage from weather changes by improving water storage to capture more rain during wet seasons. But there will still 'definitely' be a decrease in rice production as summers become hotter, he said.-0-Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.