Rally Could Have Room To Run

自股市3月9日触底以来，主要股指的反弹幅度至少都达到了20%。这轮回升行情形成得非常迅速，股指走势或多或少都出现了急转，投资者因此也以谨慎的目光关注着这次反弹，并注意到：鉴于金融类股和非必需消费品类股领涨这一事实，空头回补应是反弹的原因之一。4月份伊始，在股市连续两天上涨之后，投资策略师开始认同这次反弹。资产管理公司BNY Mellon Wealth Management首席投资长格罗霍夫斯基(Leo Grohowski)说，我们以前都看过这一幕。我们从11月份的低点反弹了20%，接着又全部失去了，而且还跌得更多些。在第一季度末之后，市场曾预计股市会略有回落，因为在季度末时基金会增持表现较好的股票，以粉饰他们的投资组合。预计收益将令人失望，因为据研究公司Strategas Research Partners称，本季度下调收益预期与上调收益预期的公司比例达到了4：1以上。鉴于对未来经济前景依然堪忧的预期，标准普尔500指数上涨24%似乎让回调走势也变得水到渠成了。然而，走高也存在基本面的支撑，尽管在目前阶段这些支撑还非常单薄。住房工业生产制造业和零售数据都比1月和2月的低迷状况有所改善。虽然尚未改善到恢复增长的程度，但却表明衰退可能已经见底。与此同时，市场也变得更加健康了。在过去的五次股市反弹中，范围一次比一次广，上涨股与下跌股的比例超过了2：1。堪萨斯城资产管理公司UMB Scout Management的首席投资长葛瑞纳(Bill Greiner)说，现在的确已有一些长期的买盘回到市场中。它让人们进一步感觉到，市场目前的反弹走势可能有些耐久力。当然，目前这种时候投资者也会开始认为，市场可能二次探底，让人们再次蒙受损失。葛瑞纳也认识到了这点，称随着收益报告发布期的到来，如果卖盘压力导致反弹的点数损失了一半，他也“不会感到吃惊”。但他说，3月份的低点越来越像是一个真正的低点。David Gaffen相关阅读全球股市终于分道扬镳 2009-04-02“脱钩论”在投资者中仍有市场 2009-03-30


Since stocks hit a low on March 9, the major averages have all rallied by at least 20%. The move developed rapidly - indexes more or less turned on a dime - and investors watched the rally with a wary eye, noting that short-covering was somewhat responsible for the gains, since financial shares and consumer-discretionary stocks led the way.After two days of gains to open the month of April, investment strategists are starting to believe. 'We've all sort of seen this show before,' says Leo Grohowski, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon Wealth Management. 'We got a 20% move off the November lows and we gave that all back, and then some.'Following the end of the first quarter, when funds dress up their portfolio by adding stocks that have been performing well, it was anticipated that stocks would pull back a bit. Earnings are expected to be dismal, as more than four companies have lowered expectations for every one that has raised expectations in this quarter, according to Strategas Research Partners. The S&P 500's 24% move looks ripe for hacking away at given the expectations for a tough economic road going forward.However, the move higher has fundamental underpinnings even if they are bare threads at the current moment. Data on housing, industrial production, manufacturing and retail sales all point to an improvement from the dismal reports in January and February. These reports do not reflect a rebound to positive growth, but suggest that the trough of the recession could have been reached.The market, meanwhile, has been healthier as well. Breadth has been stronger - in each of the market's last five rallies, advancing stocks outnumbered declining stocks by more than a two-to-one ratio. 'There's some real long buying coming back into the marketplace now,' says Bill Greiner, chief investment officer at UMB Scout Management in Kansas City. 'It gives people a little bit more of a sense that there may be some durability to the move.'Of course, it's the moment when investors start to feel confident that markets double back, leaving people with a case of whiplash. Greiner recognizes this, saying he 'wouldn't be surprised' to see half of the rally disappear under a cloud of selling as earnings season arrives. But, he says, 'that low from March is starting to feel more and more like a real low.'David Gaffen