The New TARP:Good Or Bad For The Dollar?

汇市最近显得有些神秘。过去几个月中，市场预期政府将会发行更多国债，美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve，简称：美联储）也会出台更多政策，虽然这种预期看上去会促使美元走软，但美元却保持了坚挺。现在，随着财政部宣布清理银行资产负债表内不良资产的最新计划，美元进一步走强，即便股市大涨也未能止住美元的升值脚步。人们对于美元在未来几个月会出现什么情况有种种预期。一些人认为，由于联邦政府预算和经常项目赤字不断膨胀的预期会令外国投资者对美国财政系统的稳定性产生担忧，美元将会或者应当走软。还有人认为，如果市场真的复苏，将会对美元不利，因为投资者会更愿意购买以其他货币计价的风险较高的资产。GFT外汇研究部门负责人利恩(Kathy Lien)说，现在真是进退两难，一方面风险偏好的上升应该会推动美元走低，减少其它国家对美元的需求，另一方面外国投资者又确信，美国政府希望为这些不良资产设定一个下限，这两种力量相持不下。银行的风险正逐渐减小，这就是银行股出现反弹的原因。还有的人对财政部计划对美元的影响持其它看法。EverBank World Markets的副总裁加夫尼(Chris Gaffney)认为，美元周一出现反弹是交易员上周晚些时候大幅抛售美元后在其他货币上获利回吐的结果。加夫尼认为不良资产清理计划增加了美元的风险，但他指出，美国国债和黄金等传统避险资产并未与美元一同反弹。这些资产未能上涨也可能是因为交易员获利回吐，但这样解释本身也带来复杂问题，因为它会削弱投资者购买避险资产的理由。还有一种可能是，财政部新计划增强投资者风险偏好，投资者对此做出积极反应，同时也因美国政府相较于其他国家行动迅速而感到振奋。4Cast Ltd.的外汇策略部门主管弗内斯(Chris Furness)说，市场有点超卖，这也是因素之一。当时大家都在卖空。此外，大家似乎隐约觉得美国政府正在认真处理当前的问题，或者说行动比其他大多数国家更快。David Gaffen相关阅读美联储印钞票无需印钞机 2009-03-23贝南克金融改革建议花拳秀腿难奏效 2009-03-23美联储收购债券对你意味着什么？ 2009-03-20美联储放手一搏 福祸几何？ 2009-03-19


The currency markets have been a weird place of late. For the last few months, the dollar maintained its strength even in the anticipation of more government debt and Federal Reserve policies that would seem to encourage dollar weakness. Now, with the most recent announcement of the newest plan to nuke the festering assets on the balance sheets of U.S. banks, the dollar is stronger, rallying even when the equity market is rising.There are numerous expectations about what could transpire for the dollar in coming months. Some believe the greenback will, or should, weaken due to anticipation of a bloated federal budget and current-account deficit that concerns foreign investors about the U.S. system's stability. Others suggest that if markets do recover, it would undermine the case for the dollar, as investors would be more persuaded to buy riskier assets denominated in other currencies.'It's really a struggle today, and a tug of war between improvement in risk appetite, which should be driving the dollar lower and foreign demand for dollars, and the assurance for foreign investors that there is basically a floor the U.S. government wants to create for these toxic assets,' says Kathy Lien, director of currency research at GFT. 'The risk for the banks are diminishing by the day and that's why banking stocks are rallying.'Others arrive at a divergent view of the plan's impact on the dollar. Chris Gaffney, vice president at EverBank World Markets Group, believes the dollar rally on Monday is the result of traders reversing gains in other currencies after the dollar sold off sharply late last week.While he believes the plan increases the risk to the U.S. currency, he noted that traditional safe-haven assets such as U.S. Treasurys and gold have not rallied along with the dollar. The lack of a positive move in those assets could also be a profit-covering move, but this interpretation has its own complications, because it undermines the case for safe-haven positioning by investors.It may be that investors are reacting positively to a plan that increases investor appetite for risk, but are also heartened by the swiftness of the U.S. government's moves, when compared with others. 'It's fair to say there is an element of this that [the market] was oversold,' says Chris Furness, head of currency strategy at 4Cast Ltd. 'Everyone and his brother were short at the time. There's also a slight feeling in the background that maybe the U.S. administration is getting to grips with things, or rather more quickly than most of the rest of the world.'David Gaffen