As Shell Raises Dividend, Future Gets Hazy

荷兰皇家壳牌有限公司(Royal Dutch Shell)称，今年将派发100亿美元股息，较2008年增加5%。此举显示，在蓝筹公司纷纷削减股东派息的潮流中，大型石油公司成为引人注目的特例。但一些投资者对这些超大石油巨头能否维持慷慨派息表示怀疑，毕竟，全球性衰退导致能源需求受到抑制，原油价格也因此走低。就在上调派息的同时，为削减成本，壳牌减少了它正在着手进行的项目数量。这加大了壳牌承诺长期增产目标的难度，对一家过去几年来石油和天然气产量一直在下降的公司来讲，增产是一个敏感的问题。去年壳牌宣布，未来十年，其每年的增长潜力在2%-3%范围。不过，该公司周二只表示未来3年将实现上述增幅，拒绝对更长时期的增长前景发表预测。壳牌还表示，今年的产量将持平或小幅下滑。壳牌首席执行长范德伟(Jeroen van der Veer)在向媒体发布公司最新策略时说，我们不得不按照经济衰退可能持续超过一年的预期来制定计划。但他说，壳牌的资产负债情况足以支撑公司在经济下滑期间的投资和派息需求。壳牌1月份称，当季将把派息从40美分增加到42美分，但不涉及全年派息。壳牌的派息计划显示，在全球各家企业纷纷加强企业资产储备现金，将回报股东放到次要位置的时候，西方大型石油公司却有自己的一套不同做法。其他石油巨头大多保持原来的派息水平。一些人担心，这些石油巨头维持高派息可能会让自己在财务上吃紧，特别是一些需要借债派息的公司更是如此。如果今明两年石油价格一直处在目前每桶49美元左右的价位，这种压力会更大。Rensburg Fund Managers投资部主管莫顿(Colin Morton)说，如果油价继续下跌的话，这些公司就会存疑。他们必须决定是维持派息好，还是减少派息将钱用于增加资本开支等其他项目更好。这个问题对投资者至关重要，许多人正是因为这些石油巨头的可靠派息而持有它们的股票。壳牌自二战以来从未下调过派息。该公司表示，如有必要，将增加借债用于派息。该公司表示，预计今年其债务权益比将从6%上升到21%-23%左右。首席财务长沃瑟(Peter Voser)说，鉴于公司的庞大规模，这个水平不会让我们感到压力。沃瑟将在范德伟今年晚些时候退休后接替他担任壳牌首席执行长。英国石油(BP PLC)也作出了类似保证。该公司曾表示，需要油价不低于每桶60美元，公司今年的现金流才能满足资本开支和派息的需求。不过它又表示，能轻松筹集到资金弥补任何缺口。英国石油目前的债务权益比是21%，而它认为的可靠范围应该在20%-30%区间。不过，英国石油的债务权益比仅次于康菲石油(ConocoPhillips)，在各大石油巨头中排在第二，因此，与壳牌相比它的回旋余地要小。周二原油价格收于每桶49.16美元。并非只有英国石油这方面存在薄弱之处。标准普尔(Standard & Poor)发出警告称，如果油价不出现回升，欧洲所有石油巨头──包括英国石油壳牌道达尔(Total)和ENI SpA──今年或明年将面临评级下调的局面。问题在于庞大的现金流。去年，六大石油巨头向股东派发了接近1,000亿美元的股息。随着一向可靠的银行业削减派息，来自石油巨头的派息就变得更重要了。英国石油和壳牌的派息额占英国企业派息总额的近五分之一。不过，这些巨头的前景正日渐黯淡。目前油价较去年7月创下的高点已跌去100美元。现在的水平相当于2004年，而行业成本却比那时上升了一倍。而且，与以前的低油价时期不同的是，这些巨头在这轮下滑期间一直在大力投资。以壳牌为例，该公司今年大约320亿美元的资本开支计划是其有史以来规模最大的一次。Guy Chazan相关阅读雪佛龙下调产量预期 2009-03-11中国三大石油公司去年利润总额下降31% 2009-02-17挪威公司北极采油 最后的能源处女地 2009-02-16石油巨头的慷慨派息之举可能难以为继 2009-01-07石油公司因市况低迷纷纷囤积现金 2008-11-26 本文涉及股票或公司document.write (truthmeter('2009年03月18日16:48', 'RDSB'));Royal Dutch Shell PLC (ADS)总部地点：英国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：RDSbdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年03月18日16:48', 'RDSA'));Royal Dutch Shell PLC (ADS Cl A)总部地点：英国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：RDSadocument.write (truthmeter('2009年03月18日16:48', 'BP'));英国石油公司英文名称：BP PLC (ADS)总部地点：英国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：BPdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年03月18日16:48', 'RDSA.LN'));Royal Dutch Shell PLC总部地点：英国上市地点：伦敦股票代码：RDSadocument.write (truthmeter('2009年03月18日16:48', 'BP.LN'));Bp Plc总部地点：英国上市地点：伦敦股票代码：BPdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年03月18日16:48', 'RDSB.LN'));荷兰皇家壳牌有限公司英文名称：Royal Dutch Shell Plc总部地点：英国上市地点：伦敦股票代码：RDSb


Royal Dutch Shell said it would pay $10 billion in dividends this year, up 5% from 2008, establishing Big Oil as a notable exception to the wave of blue-chip companies that are cutting their payouts to shareholders.But some investors are questioning whether the supermajors can sustain their generous dividends amid a global recession that has depressed energy demand and lowered crude prices.Even as it raises its dividend, Shell is paring the number of projects it undertakes to cut costs. That has made it harder for Shell to promise long-term output growth -- a sensitive issue for a company that has seen its production of oil and gas decline for the last several years.Last year, Shell announced long-term growth potential of 2% to 3% a year through the next decade. But Tuesday, the Anglo-Dutch company would commit to that growth only for the next three years, declining to forecast beyond then. Shell also said output would be flat or slightly lower this year.'We have to plan on the basis that the economic downturn could last for more than a year,' Chief Executive Jeroen van der Veer said as he presented the company's latest strategy update to reporters. But he said Shell's balance sheet was strong enough to support investment and dividends throughout the slowdown. Shell said in January it would increase its dividend to 42 cents a share this quarter from 40 cents, but didn't commit to its payout for the year.Shell's dividend illustrates how major Western oil companies are bucking a trend elsewhere in the corporate landscape, where rewarding shareholders is taking a back seat to shoring up balance sheets and conserving cash. Most of the other oil majors are holding their dividends steady.There are concerns that the oil majors are subjecting themselves to financial strain by maintaining high payouts, especially as some companies will have to borrow to pay dividends. That strain will only increase if the oil price stays stuck at its current level of around $49 a barrel this year and into 2010.'There's a question mark over them if the oil price continues to decline,' said Colin Morton, investment director at Rensburg Fund Managers. 'They'll have to decide whether they're better off maintaining the dividend or reducing it and using the money for other things, such as increased capital spending.' The issue is critical for investors, many of whom hold shares in the supermajors because of their reliable dividend streams.Shell, which hasn't cut its payout since World War II, said it will increase debt to cover its dividend, if necessary. The company said it expects its gearing, the ratio of net debt to net debt-plus-equity, will increase to the low 20% range this year from 6%. Given Shell's size, that is 'very comfortable for us,' said Chief Financial Officer Peter Voser, who has been selected to succeed Mr. van der Veer as CEO when he retires later this year.BP PLC has made similar assurances. It has said it needs oil to fetch $60 a barrel for the company's cash flow to cover capital spending and dividend payments this year. But the company said it can easily raise debt to cover any shortfall. Its current gearing of 21% is at the low end of the 20%-to-30% range it considers prudent.However, BP's gearing already is the second-highest among the majors, after ConocoPhillips, so it has less room for maneuver than Shell does. Crude closed Tuesday at $49.16 a barrel. (Please see commodities coverage on page C14.)It's not only BP that is vulnerable. Standard & Poor's has warned that all the European supermajors -- BP, Shell, Total SA and ENI SpA -- could face ratings downgrades this year or next if oil's price doesn't recover.At issue is a vast flow of money. Last year, the six supermajors returned nearly $100 billion to shareholders. And as the once-dependable banks cut payouts, Big Oil's contribution has grown in importance. BP and Shell account for almost a fifth of the dividends paid by U.K. companies.The outlook for the majors is darkening, however. The price of oil has fallen by $100 a barrel since its highs reached last July. It is now at levels last seen in 2004, yet industry costs have doubled since then. And unlike in previous periods of low oil prices, the majors have committed themselves to keep investing heavily through the downturn. Shell's roughly $32 billion capital-expenditure program for this year is the largest in its history.Guy Chazan