What the Fed's Bond Buy Means for You

美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)称，将斥资1.2万亿美元购买由政府担保的债券，其中包括价值约3亿美元的美国国债。这对你意味着什么呢？显然，这对寻求给自己住房贷款进行再融资的房主是个好消息，对希望贷款买房的人也是一大利好。美联储宣布的这一消息已推低了长期利率，相应也推低了抵押贷款利率。30年期固定利率贷款的利息在这一消息公布后降至了4.5%之低。以历史标准衡量这可真够低的。只要可能就赶紧借钱吧。美联储宣布的这一消息对任何目前持有长期美国国债的人也是好消息。因为美国国债的收益率越低价格就越高。在美联储宣布这一消息前，美国长期国债的价格已经大幅下跌了好几个月。SPDR Barclays Capital美国长期国债交易所买卖基金拥有期限各异的一篮子美国国债，自这条消息宣布以来，该基金的价格已上涨了近10%。美国长期国债自去年12月中旬以来所大幅跌去的价格现已大部分恢复。我可不想再给阴谋论推波助澜，在人们都心急火燎的当前环境下，形形色色的阴谋论已经太多了，但我需要指出，美国长期国债的最大持有者是中国政府。去年年底时中国已经成为美国的最大债权人。上周五，中国总理温家宝特意告诉全世界，他是多么“担心”中国政府手中约7,400亿美元美国国债的安全性。他说这些话时美国长期国债的价格仍在继续下跌。就在温家宝此番表态几天之后，美联储即表示要动用纳税人的资金来推高这些国债的价格，而美国长期国债的价格也随即再度开始上扬。无论你是北京的温家宝，还是凤凰城的琼斯夫人，如果你持有很多美国长期国债，你可能都想借此次国债上涨之机卖掉一部分以获利，因为它们的价格目前看上去都有些高得吓人。10年期美国国债的收益率已跌至了仅2.6%左右，而30年期美国国债的收益率也只有3.6%。上述收益率已接近历史低点，这使得你持有美国长期国债在承担很大风险的同时却只能得到非常小的风险补偿。简言之，通货膨胀率的任何显著上涨都会使美国长期国债的投资收益化为乌有。鉴于政府正在全力开动印钞机，通货膨胀率迟早都会升高。这种担心已经导致美元汇率下跌。在这种环境下，确实很难找出私人投资者应持有30年期美国国债的理由。相反，持有通货膨胀保值债券能使你睡得更安稳些。眼下，美联储的举动已经推高了国债价格拉低了抵押贷款利率。这种局面能维持多久？谁也说不准。但从目前的一些苗头看前景不妙。当美国政府开始成为美国国债所剩无几的大客户时，这可不是什么令人放心的迹象。这种事就像一家酒吧开始向自己的老板大量卖酒。而且还是赊帐。虽然美联储为了提振信心正在大力宣扬它的“新”政策，但这一政策真算不上什么新东西。在美联储最近所发布统计公告的不显眼处，你会发现美联储已经持有了4,740亿美元的美国国债，其中大多数属于中长期国债。Brett Arends（编者按：本文作者Brett Arends是《华尔街日报》网络版专栏作家，他的专栏《投资回报》帮助投资者分析最新时事并做出相应投资决定。）相关阅读美联储放手一搏 福祸几何？ 2009-03-19美联储维持利率不变；将大规模收购国债 2009-03-19


The Federal Reserve says it will spend $1.2 trillion buying up government-backed IOUs in the next few months, including about $300 million on Treasury bonds.What does this mean for you?Clearly it's great news for homeowners looking to refinance, and for homebuyers seeking new loans. The Fed's announcement has pushed down long-term interest rates, and that in turn has driven down mortgage rates. Rates on thirty-year fixed loans have dropped as low as 4.5% following the news. That's a bargain by historic standards. Get 'em while you can.The Fed's announcement is also great news for anyone who currently owns long-term Treasury bonds. That's because falling yields are always accompanied by higher prices on the bonds themselves. These bonds had been plummeting in price for several months prior to the announcement. The SPDR Barclays Capital Long Term Treasury exchange-traded fund, which owns a broad basket of these bonds, has spiked about 10% since the news. That reverses most of the heavy losses suffered by long-term Treasurys since the bubble burst in mid-December.I don't want to spark any more conspiracy theories - surely we have enough already in today's fevered environment - but the number one holder of these bonds is the Chinese government. They became America's lead banker late last year. Last Friday the prime minister, Wen Jiabao, took the extraordinary step of telling the world how 'worried' he was about his government's estimated $740 billion worth of Treasury bonds. At the time they had been sliding. A few days later the Federal Reserve offered to bid them up with taxpayers' funds and they started rising again.Whether you are Mr. Wen of Beijing or Mrs. Jones in Phoenix, if you own a lot of these long-term bonds you might want to take advantage of this bounce to sell some, because these bonds now look disturbingly overvalued. The yield on the 10-year Treasury just fell to a paltry 2.6% or so, while that on the 30-year is just 3.6%.These interest rates are near all-time lows. And they offer you very little compensation for a lot of risk. Put briefly: Any big upsurge in inflation will absolutely smoke longer-term government bonds. And with the government running the printing presses at full throttle, inflation, sooner or later, has to be a high probability. The dollar is already heading south on similar fears.There really are few reasons why private investors should hold nominal thirty-year Treasury bonds in these circumstances. You will sleep a lot easier with inflation-protected bonds instead.For now, the Fed's move has driven up Treasury prices and driven down mortgage rates. How long will that last? It's anyone's guess. But the omens are hardly promising.It is hardly a confident sign when one of the few big customers left for US government paper is the US government. It smacks of a bar that starts to sell a lot of booze to the owner. On credit.And while the Federal Reserve is trumpeting its 'new' policy in order to boost confidence, it's not really that new after all. Look through the fine print of the Fed's recent statistical releases and you'll see that it already owns about $474 billion worth of Treasurys, most of them of longer maturities.Brett Arends