Night Of The Living Deflation

就象系列恐怖电影中的食尸鬼一样，通货紧缩在日本从来没有真正被消灭过。所以，这次通货紧缩再次抬头也就不足为奇了。政策制定者抵挡通货紧缩的能力仍然让人怀疑。日本和日本的企业非常熟悉通货紧缩意味着什么：消费者推迟购买，实际利率上升，除了最关系国计民生的企业，其他企业的利润都纷纷下滑，员工的工资停滞不前。在日本对抗价格下滑的战斗持续了5年多之后，直到2006年9月，政府官方用语中才终于不再使用“通货紧缩”这个字眼。不过，价格回升却是跟随能源和大宗商品价格大幅上涨而来的。实际上，按照好几种衡量指标，物价在10年来都没有变化，甚至是下滑了。由于2008年燃料价格飙升，不包括价格波动大的生鲜食品在内的核心消费者价格指数(CPI)上升了1.5%，按照大部分标准来说都不算高。现在经济学家预测，通货紧缩显然要再次抬头。周五将公布的1月份核心消费者价格指数预计将较上年同期下降0.1%。这次，出口骤降美国和中国出现通货紧缩苗头也在加大价格和工资的螺旋式下滑压力。与以往一样，日本央行发现自己无法用常规的方法对通货紧缩作出强有力的反应，因为短期利率已经降到了接近零利率的水平。而非常规方法又不合央行的意。扭转物价下跌走势的关键是改变企业和消费者的预期，不要让他们觉得物价会持续下滑。不过在这个“战线”上，日本央行也已“缴械投降”。日本央行设定的价格稳定区间（可以接受的价格变动区间）是从零开始的。而其他国家央行设置的这一区间为1%-3%。通货紧缩并不是一个挥舞着斧头的恶魔，不过肯定令人恐惧。James Simms相关阅读日本1月份工业产值降幅创纪录之最 2009-02-27日本汽车厂家国内产量大幅下降 2009-02-26


Like the ghoul from a bad horror-film series, deflation was never really whipped in Japan.Its return, then, is hardly a surprise. And policy makers' ability to fend it off remains doubtful. Japan and its companies are familiar with what this means: consumers delay purchases, real interest rates rise, earnings for all but the most defensive companies erode, and wages stagnate.It was in September 2006 that the 'D word' was finally dropped from official government language, after a more than five-year struggle with falling prices. But what price gains did follow were the result of spiking energy and commodity prices. In fact, by several measures prices have been unchanged or falling for a decade.Because fuel prices spiked in 2008, the core consumer price index, which excludes volatile fresh food, rose 1.5%, not high by most standards. Now economists are forecasting a clear resumption in deflation. Friday's January core CPI is expected to slide 0.1% from a year earlier.This time, adding to the downward spiral of prices and wages is a collapse in exports and the prospect for deflation to turn up in the U.S. and China.As before, the Bank of Japan finds itself unable to react strongly with conventional methods; short-term interest rates are already near zero. Unconventional methods don't sit well with the central bank.Crucial to breaking the downward cycle is changing the expectation, among companies and shoppers alike, that prices will keep tumbling. On this front, too, the Bank of Japan has already laid down its sword. Its own price-stability band, a range of acceptable price changes, starts at zero. That compares with a range of 1% to 3% for Japan's peers.This isn't an ax-wielding fiend, but it sure is frightening.James Simms