Mr. Obama, Please Return To Earth

难到美国总统疯了不成吗？从他周二晚间的演讲看，似乎真是这么回事。他用了5个月时间尝试了3次才敲定商务部长人选。但不知怎的，未来几年中我们做几乎任何事情的方式都要由他来重新确定。包括我们如何存钱和借钱，如何教育孩子，如何治疗癌症以及如何使用能源。甚至我们如何生产轿车也要由他来决定。先不说奥巴马这份雄心在意识形态方面会遇到多大阻力。单讲实际操作的困难就会有多少？奥巴马先生怎样才能实现所有这些想法？答案是，他做不到，也不应该去尝试。如果奥巴马真想获得连任，他应该将自己首个总统任期全部用于让美国经济再度强大起来。就这么简单。你曾想过首席执行长们为何总是重复那几句管理套话？比如“专注，专注，专注”；“关键的是执行”；以及“只做一件事，把它干好”。原因是不照这些话去做的企业无法生存，它们会倒闭。不幸的是，不这么做的政府却不会垮台。它们只是会浪费大量时间和金钱，而这正是奥巴马政府现在要做的。当然，从已经颁布的经济刺激法案看，总统有能力让法案迅速通过。但出台法律条文并不能真正解决问题。难的是把法律条文转化为有建设性的具体行动。而在华盛顿尤其难做到这一点。想想那里车载斗量的政客说客和官僚们吧。看看可怜的财长蒂莫西·盖特纳(Tim Geithner)受的那份辛苦就知道了。他好容易才熬过了令人精疲力尽的任职批准程序。他无法尽快聘用合格的下属。人手不足的财政部现在不得不负责监督数万亿美元纳税人资金的用途，这些钱分别被投给了房利美(Fannie)房地美(Freddie)美国国际集团(AIG)花旗集团(Citi)被问题资产救助计划(TARP)涵盖的银行以及破产了的美国汽车工业。专注？你在开玩笑吧？忙于在七大工业国会议总统解决汽车业问题的工作班子内阁以及工作人选之间穿梭的盖特纳，能有时间睡觉已经是奇迹，更别说做成什么事了。现在想象一下联邦政府其他14个部级单位及它们属下庞大的官僚机构面临的和财政部类似的烦恼。教育部长阿恩·邓肯(Arne Duncan)重塑美国教育体系的难度有多大？想想联邦州以及地方教育体系那些层层迭迭的官僚机构就会知道。甚至华盛顿的民主党人也没有就如何行动达成一致。请注意，当奥巴马在周二晚间的演讲中要求给政府特许学校开绿灯时，众议院议长佩洛西(Nancy Pelosi)没有鼓掌。然而至少美国教育部还有个头。奥巴马正开足马力对美国的医疗保健体系作革命性变革，但他竟然还没任命一位新的卫生与公共服务部部长。正因为如此，奥巴马终将需要暂时搁置一些他的其他“当务之急”，比如医疗保健改革或可再生能源开发。如果只能把一件事做到最精彩，那就需要在诸多想法中作出选择。而总统的当务之急只能是重振美国经济。任何曾经经营过一家企业的人都会本能地明白这一点。要想迅速雇到合适的人并让他们在很紧的时间内完成好一项任务，这可是件很难办到的事。如果给他们安排很多工作，那他们的工作质量就会打折扣。即使是小规模企业也存在这种问题。企业的规模越大，这方面的问题就越严重。不幸的是，美国政府可是个铺摊子的能手。现在放眼全美国，几千亿美元的政府救市资金已经分配下去，数万名政府员工和私营部门承包商已被聘定，数以千计的联邦和州一级建设项目已被提上议事日程。在奥巴马的世界里，所有这些最终都将导致美国经历一场革命性的重塑。但还是回到现实世界吧，所有这些最终都将以泪收场。Evan Newmark（编者按：本文作者Evan Newmark曾在华尔街工作了20余年，目前已远离各大投行自己在进行股票投资。本栏目文章选自他在Deal Journl上的博客Mean Street。栏目内容都与华尔街有关。）相关阅读美国政府将大幅增持花旗股份 2009-02-27奥巴马提交3.6万亿美元财政预算案 2009-02-27中国对骆家辉寄予厚望 2009-02-27 本文涉及股票或公司document.write (truthmeter('2009年02月27日14:26', 'GM'));General Motors Corp.总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：GMdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月27日14:26', 'BAC'));美国银行英文名称：Bank of America Corp.总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：BAC


Has the President lost his mind  Listening to last night's speech, it sure seemed that way.It's taken him five months and three tries to simply come up with a Commerce secretary.But somehow over the next couple of years, he will reinvent how we do almost everything. How we bank and borrow. How we educate our children. How we cure cancer. How we use energy.Even how we build cars.Forget the ideological objections to Mr. Obama's ambitions. How about the practical difficulties  How will Mr. Obama ever get all those things done The answer is he won't and shouldn't even try. If Obama really wants a second term, he should devote his entire first term to making the economy strong again. And that's it.Did you ever wonder why CEOs are always repeating the same old management cliches  'Focus, focus, focus.' 'The key is execution.' 'Do one thing, do it well.'That's because businesses that don't do these things don't survive. They fail.Unfortunately, governments that don't do these things, don't fail. They just waste lots of time and money, precisely what the Obama administration is now setting off to do.Of course, with the stimulus bill, the president has shown that he can get bills quickly passed. But words are words. The hard part is turning them into specific constructive actions.And nowhere is that harder than in Washington, amongst the grasping armies of politicians, lobbyists and bureaucrats.Look at the travails of poor Tim Geithner, the Treasury secretary.He was dragged through an exhausting confirmation process. He can't hire qualified staff fast enough. And his undermanned Treasury now has to oversee trillions of dollars in taxpayer assets in Fannie and Freddie, AIG, Citi, scores of TARP banks and a bankrupt car industry.Focus  Are you kidding  Between the meetings of the G7, the Presidential Auto Task Force, the cabinet and potential hires, it's a miracle if Geithner gets any sleep, much less accomplishes anything.Now duplicate what's going on at the Treasury over at the 14 other cabinet-level executive departments and their huge bureaucracies in Washington.How easy will it be for Department of Education honcho Arne Duncan to reinvent the U.S. education system  Just think of the countless layers of federal, state and local school bureaucracies.Even the Democrats in Washington don't agree on what to do. Note that Nancy Pelosi wasn't applauding last night when Obama lobbied for charter schools.At least, somebody is running Education.Obama is full steam ahead with a revolutionary overhaul of the U.S. health-care system, but hasn't even named a new Health and Human Services Secretary yet.That's why Obama eventually will need to temporarily ditch some of his other first term 'priorities' like health-care reform or renewable energy.Doing one thing exceptionally well requires making choices. And the president's overriding priority has to be on fixing the economy.Anybody who has ever run a business instinctively understands this. It's hard enough to hire good people quickly and have them perform one task to a tight deadline. Give them lots of things to do and the work suffers.Even on a small scale. The larger the scale, the harder it gets. And unfortunately, the U.S. government only knows how to operate on a large scale.So now watch as all across the nation, hundreds of billions of dollars in funds are dispensed, ten of thousands of government workers and private contractors are hired, and thousands of new federal and state programs are initiated.In Obama's world, this will all end with the revolutionary reinvention of America.But back on Planet Earth, it will only end in tears.Evan Newmark