China Spreads Stimulus Cost

中国正在为地方政府大举发行债券做准备。经济放缓促使官员们着手改革体制，缓解各省市的长期资金紧张局面。人大代表上周就一项允许地方政府发行债券的计划进行了讨论。分析人士预测，计划将在3月份每年一度的全国人大会议上最后确定。中国的经济学家表示，根据初步的计划，今年地方政府将通过中央政府发行约人民币2,000亿元（合290亿美元）的债券。Associated Press据初步计划，今年地方政府将通过中央政府发行约人民币2,000亿元债券。这项筹资计划意在把为政府庞大的刺激计划提供资金的重担分摊开来，而不再只是由财政部承担。中央政府仍占主导地位：已经在刺激计划上投入人民币2,300亿元，还会陆续投入更多的资金。地方政府发行债券的所得将仅仅用于中央政府批准的项目，比如机场发电厂和铁路建设项目。不过，如果此项计划继续扩大下去，它可能会取代地方政府采取的其他一些筹资途径，使得大众在指引中国公共支出方面发挥更大的作用。财政部财政科学研究所副所长苏明说，我认为这应该是个过渡性的安排。中国应该修订法律，允许地方政府发行债券。就算我们不允许他们这样做，他们也会找到办法在不让中央政府知晓的情况下进行筹资。中国的税收体制使得大部分财政收入流向中央政府，而地方省市政府则需要解决教育医疗等服务方面的大部分支出。尽管北京向贫困省份提供资金，大部分地方政府仍依靠特别的筹资措施才能实现收支相抵。土地出让一直是资金的一个重要来源，不过由于房地产市场下滑，现在这个资金来源也开始枯竭了。中国的法律禁止各省市未经中央政府的批准擅自发行债券，不过地方政府下属的企业却一直在大举发债，为公共工程提供资金。例如，上海市政府下属的基础设施建设企业──上海市城市建设投资开发总公司就表示，公司成立以来的15年中，已经筹集了约人民币2,000亿元。要想计算出这类企业发行的债券总额几乎是不可能的。据经济学家估计，这类债券约占每年国内生产总值(GDP)的10%-20%。这就意味着，地方政府发债规模可能已经与中央政府正式发行的规模不相上下。中央政府发行的债券在GDP中的占比相对较低，为20%。允许地方政府发行证券的原因之一是让地方政府的债务更加透明。在很多国家，地方政府债券都是一种普遍接受的政府融资手段。美国现在有超过2.6万亿美元的未到期市政债券。这些资金为州和地方政府的基础建设支出提供了六成的资金，剩余的资金则来自联邦补助和当前财政收入。不过，对地方政府发行债券感到担忧也是有理由的。上世纪90年代，匈牙利印度墨西哥和俄罗斯的地方政府大举借债，进而引发了财政问题，美国的很多地区如今也有财政紧张问题。中央政府最后常常要为地方政府积累起来的债务负责。这也是北京计划加紧控制避免地方政府过度举债的原因之一。由于经济放缓令地方政府的财政困难加剧，一些学者预计，允许地方政府发行债券将是向在筹资和支出上给予地方政府更大自由迈出的第一步。中央财经大学教授刘欢（音）说，最近几年关于地方政府在税收和财政收入方面的权利有很多的讨论，不过这是个非常敏感的问题，很难达成一个最终的解决办法。他说，允许地方政府发行债券并不会解决地方政府的全部财政问题，不过却是一个令人鼓舞的迹象。这给了地方政府一定的自主权。另外，中国银监会主席周四说，中国的放贷机构几乎尚未感受到全球金融和经济危机的冲击，不过银监会将努力防止不良贷款的发生。此前，由于政府号召放贷机构增加对基础设施等项目的放贷，以扭转经济增长急剧放缓的局面，1月份中国银行业的放贷实现了创纪录的增长。Andrew Batson相关阅读中国经济不太可能迅速复苏 2009-02-26中国进出口锐减  刺激计划未显功效 2009-02-12企业盈利警报频传 中国经济阵痛将至 2009-02-04


China is preparing for a wave of bond sales by local governments, as the economic slowdown pushes officials to overhaul a system that has left cities and provinces chronically strapped for cash.Lawmakers discussed a plan for local-government bonds last week, and analysts expect it to be finalized at March's annual legislative session. The tentative plan envisions local governments selling around 200 billion yuan, or $29 billion, of bonds this year through the central government, according to economists in China.The fund raising is intended to spread the burden of funding the government's massive stimulus program beyond the treasury in Beijing.The central government is still the main driver: Already, it has spent 230 billion yuan on the stimulus, with more on the way. Proceeds from local bonds would go only to projects approved by Beijing, such as work on airports, power plants and railroads.But if the program continues to develop, it could supplant some of the other avenues local authorities have pursued to raise money, and give communities a bigger role in directing China's public spending.'I think this should be a transitional arrangement,' said Su Ming, deputy director of the Research Institute for Fiscal Science, the finance ministry's think tank. 'China should revise the law to allow local governments to issue bonds. Even if we don't allow it, they find ways to raise the money without the central government knowing.'China's tax system funnels most revenue to the central government, with provincial and municipal authorities left to handle the bulk of spending on services such as education and health.While Beijing sends money to poorer provinces, most local governments still rely on extraordinary fund-raising measures to make ends meet. Land sales have been a big source of money but have started to dry up as the property market declines.While Chinese law prohibits cities and provinces themselves from taking on debt without Beijing's approval, companies owned by local governments have borrowed heavily to fund public-works projects. For instance, Shanghai Chengtou Corp., a municipal-government company that builds infrastructure, says it has raised about 200 billion yuan in its 15 years of existence.Calculating the debt accumulated by such ventures is almost impossible. Economists' estimates range between 10% and 20% of annual gross domestic product. That means local debt could already be almost as much as China's official, central-government debt, which is a relatively low 20% of GDP. Part of the thinking behind the new bond issues is to make this local debt more transparent.Local bond sales are an accepted part of government financing in many countries. In the U.S., there is now more than $2.6 trillion in municipal bond issues outstanding. Those funds provide 60% of infrastructure spending by state and local governments, with the balance coming from federal grants and current revenue.Yet there are reasons for concern about local-government borrowing. During the 1990s, heavy borrowing by local governments caused financial problems in Hungary, India, Mexico and Russia, and many localities in the U.S. are now also under financial strain.National governments usually end up being responsible for debts accumulated by local authorities, which is one reason why Beijing plans tight controls to keep local officials from borrowing beyond their means.As the economic slowdown makes financial difficulties more acute for local governments, some scholars expect the new bond program will be a first step toward giving localities in China a freer hand to raise and spend money.'There has been a lot of discussion in recent years about the tax and revenue rights of local governments, but it's a very sensitive issue and it has been hard to reach a final solution,' said Liu Huan, a professor at the Central University of Finance and Economics in Beijing. While the new bond issues won't solve all of localities' financial problems, they are a hopeful signal, he said. 'It gives local governments some autonomy.'Separately Thursday, China's top banking regulator said the nation's lenders have barely felt the global financial and economic crisis, but that the agency will work to prevent nonperforming loans.The comments came after bank lending surged by a record amount in January, as the government called on lenders to pump more funds into infrastructure and other projects to reverse a sharp slowdown in economic growth.Andrew Batson