China Gambles on Expansion of Its Oil Sector

看了中国石化业振兴规划人们不禁会产生些许质疑：现在真是石化业扩张产能的良机吗？为刺激经济增长，中国推出了一系列行业振兴计划。中国2008年第四季度经济增速已放缓至7年来的最低水平。Bloomberg News上海的一家石油工厂政府认为，随着经济的恢复，中国的石油需求不久后将出现回升，它的这一赌注如果押对可能带来丰厚回报。这些扩张计划也有助于避免大型项目的拖延，消除效率低下的小炼油作坊的竞争，让中国的石油巨头中石化(China Petrochemical Corporation)和中石油(PetroChina Co.)长期受益。但一些观察人士担心，在低迷期不计后果地扩张可能带来长达数年的负面影响。目前石油需求一直低迷。那些用于运输出口货物的柴油卡车正在赋闲，而重工业也正在削减产量。该规划可能会将中国日炼油能力提高219万桶之多，但目前尚不清楚政府打算何时将这些项目投产。另外，国家能源局(National Energy Administration)计划建设9个大型炼油基地，拟在三年内将全国总体炼油产能增至4.4亿吨（约884万桶/天）。石化业振兴规划上周已经得到了国务院的批准，细则可能将在一个月左右之后公布。大华继显(UOB KayHian)的研究部主管王傲超指出，采取这些措施的结果是，来自小型低效炼油厂的竞争可能将有所削弱。在中国主要燃油石化产品供应商手头现金并不宽裕之际，石化业振兴规划将令中石化和中石油的资产负债状况面临压力。中国政府有让国有企业承担社会责任的传统；尽管中石化和中石油可能对推进某些项目心存疑虑，但很可能会为取悦上级领导而被迫进行投资。王傲超说，扩大炼油产能可能只会在中期给中国石油企业带来效益，比如3年至5年。但由于燃油价格体系等方面存在诸多不确定性因素，目前仍很难对投资回报作出预测。9个新的炼油厂可能需要几年时间才能投产，届时已稳步复苏的经济将能吸纳这些产能。不过，在一些观察人士看来，目前并不是推进雄心勃勃的产能扩张计划的理想时机。国际能源署(International Energy Agency)在最新的石油市场报告中将中国2009年石油需求预期下调至792万桶/天，较去年仅上升了0.7%。大华继显的王傲超表示，刺激计划将给中国燃油市场带来更大的供应过剩风险。分析师说，中国近几个月柴油出口猛增，如去年12月较上年同期增长6倍，至20万吨；今年1月份增长4倍，至13万吨。分析师认为，这表明国内燃油库存处于较高水平，但政府不提供官方的燃油库存数据。保持社会稳定是中国政府的第一要务，因此这个规划能在短期内带来多重好处。国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所的主任助理姜鑫民表示，推进这些项目将有助于为基础材料需求提供支持，维持就业，并确保经济再次飞速发展时有充足的燃油和石化产品产能。Jing Yang相关阅读中国将实施十大重点产业调整和振兴规划 2009-02-27中国通过石化和轻工业振兴规划 2009-02-20 本文涉及股票或公司document.write (truthmeter('2009年02月27日12:16', '600028.SH'));中国石油化工股份有限公司（简称：中国石化）英文名称：China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (Sinopec Corp.)总部地点：中国大陆上市地点：上海证交所股票代码：600028document.write (truthmeter('2009年02月27日12:16', '601857.SH'));中国石油天然气股份有限公司(简称：中国石油)英文名称：PetroChina Co.总部地点：中国大陆上市地点：上海证交所股票代码：601857document.write (truthmeter('2009年02月27日12:16', '600857.SH'));哈工大首创科技股份有限公司 （简称：工大首创）英文名称：HIT Shouchuang Technology Co.总部地点：中国大陆上市地点：上海证交所股票代码：600857document.write (truthmeter('2009年02月27日12:16', '0386.HK'));中国石油化工股份有限公司（简称：中国石油化工股份）英文名称：China Petroleum & Chemical Corp.总部地点：中国大陆上市地点：香港交易所股票代码：0386document.write (truthmeter('2009年02月27日12:16', '0857.HK'));中国石油天然气股份有限公司（简称：中国石油股份）英文名称：PetroChina Co.总部地点：中国大陆上市地点：香港交易所股票代码：0857document.write (truthmeter('2009年02月27日12:16', 'PTR'));中国石油天然气股份有限公司（简称：中国石油）英文名称：PetroChina Co. (ADS)总部地点：中国大陆上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：PTRdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月27日12:16', 'SNP'));中国石油化工股份有限公司（简称：中国石化)英文名称：China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (ADS)总部地点：中国大陆上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：SNP


A government plan to boost China's refining and petrochemicals industry has raised some questions whether now is the time to expand capacity in the sector.To stimulate economic growth, which slowed to a seven-year low in the fourth quarter of 2008, China has rolled out stimulus plans for a series of sectors.Its gamble that China's oil demand will bounce back in the near future as the economy rebounds may pay off. The expansion plans also could help prevent delays of major projects and bring long-term benefits to China's oil giants -- China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., or Sinopec, and PetroChina Co. -- as it squeezes out competition from smaller, less-efficient refineries, known as teapots.Nevertheless, some observers express concern that expansion heading into a downturn could have a negative impact that lasts several years. China's stimulus plan comes as its oil demand is stagnating. Diesel trucks carrying goods for export are staying off the roads and heavy industry is cutting back output.The plan could add as much as 2.19 million barrels a day to China's refining capacity, though it isn't clear when the government aims to bring all these projects online.In addition, China's National Energy Administration aims to build nine large refining bases as part of a plan to increase the country's overall refining capacity to 440 million metric tons, or around 8.84 million barrels a day, over three years.The broad stimulus plan for the refining and petrochemicals sector was approved by the State Council, China's cabinet, last week. A more detailed plan may be unveiled in about a month.As a result of the measures, competition from smaller refineries will likely diminish, said Wang Aochao, research director with UOB KayHian. But he said the stimulus plan will weigh on the balance sheets of Sinopec and PetroChina at a time when China's chief fuel and petrochemical suppliers aren't flush with cash.Beijing has a history of making state-owned companies shoulder social responsibilities; while Sinopec and PetroChina might hesitate to proceed with some projects, they might feel obligated to maintain the investments to please their political masters.'Capacity expansion in refining will possibly bring the Chinese oil companies benefits only in the midterm, say in three to five years,' Mr. Wang said. 'But it's still difficult to forecast returns on the investment as there are just too many uncertainties,' such as oil pricing.The nine new refineries are likely to take several years to come online, allowing some time for economic recovery to take hold. Still, the timing doesn't seem ideal for ambitious capacity expansion to some observers.The International Energy Agency trimmed China's 2009 oil demand forecast to 7.92 million barrels per day, a mere 0.7% higher than last year, in its latest monthly report on the oil market.'China's fuel market will be exposed to a bigger risk of oversupply' by the stimulus plan, Mr. Wang said.Analysts say a ramping up of diesel exports in recent months -- exemplified by a sevenfold on-year increase in December to 200,000 tons and a fivefold increase in January to 130,000 tons -- indicates high domestic fuel stocks, although the government doesn't provide official data on inventory levels.For Beijing, whose No. 1 priority is preserving social stability, the plan may have wider benefits in the short term. 'Pushing those projects forward will help support demand for basic materials, keep people employed, and ensure fuel and petrochemical production capacity is ready when the economy takes off again,' said Jiang Xinmin, assistant director of the Energy Research Institute under the National Development and Reform Commission.Jing Yang