Revisiting The Lows

道琼斯指数重新回到了去年11月下旬时的收盘低点，当时整个世界似乎已经末日来临，而这次到底是福还是祸呢？当时，由于金融体系的失灵重创了投资者的信心，主要股指出现暴跌。如果美国经济增长的明显收缩已不算什么新闻的话，周二的跌势似乎就更不足无奇了。芝加哥期权交易所指数再度反弹，上涨12%至48.20，但交易圈表现出的恐惧仍不能同11月份时那种争先恐后逃难的情况相比。McGinn Investment Management总裁麦克金(Bernie McGinn)说，目前的金融市场同10月份时相比处境并不相同。目前的情况更好，因为我们并没有谈到金融体系的崩溃，我认为明显是更好了。另一方面，市场不再担心货币体系会崩溃，而是预计需求会下降，价格将下跌，这种情况可能不见得好到哪儿去。目前，鉴于技术面的预期和对疲弱基本面的认识，投资者认为主要股指存在继续走低的可能。Federated Investors股市策略师德塞尔(Linda Duessel)说，一些人会认为标准普尔500指数可能不需考验750点，但我的看法是如果收于800点之下，很显然还会继续下跌。主要得益于国会民主党议员的支持，以及参议院少数共和党人的支持，7,870亿美元刺激计划获得了通过。但这一消息并未推动市场出现反弹，这点重要吗？市场是否相信过政府的信誉，这点值得怀疑，但多年来投资者的看法是政府会尽可能不做有损于市场的事情。（显然这种看法在克林顿政府时期颇为流行，在布什政府时期市场出现反弹时也是如此。）上届政府最后几个月软弱无力的表现在出乎预料地宣布决定后市场的不知所措中得到了反映（尤其是当时的财政部长鲍尔森(Henry Paulson)所做的决定）。这点延续到了奥巴马政府之中，原因之一在于面临的任务艰巨，以及财政部长盖特纳(Tim Geithner)救助金融体系的计划被认为是细节不足。德塞尔说，目前，市场看来已经表明并不看好这个刺激方案。奥巴马总统周三将又有一个解决市场问题的机会，届时他将宣布新的住房计划。这个计划是由盖特纳以及新的住房和城市发展部部长多诺万(Shaun Donovan)起草的。Miller Tabak首席债券市场策略师克雷申奇(Tony Crescenzi)指出，美联储宣布了许多支持金融市场的计划，每次这些方案要么是准备执行（已经推迟的扩大资产支持证券贷款工具(TALF)是个例外），要么就是至少有个时间表。承认周三的计划有可能成功无疑是冒险之举，我只是希望盖特纳清楚地听到了上周的大声疾呼；更重要的是，奥巴马承认需要华尔街来解决实体经济的问题。仍然关心道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数和道琼斯运输股票平均价格指数传统关系的人在周二的走势中不能发现任何乐观的内容。道琼斯运输指数大幅下挫，跌破了2月2日创出的收盘低点，令相信运输类股可作为经济走势良好指标的投资者倍感担忧。道琼斯指数的表现更是雪上加霜，几乎以全天最低点收盘，7552.45点的收盘点位仅略高于2008年11月20日7552.29点的收盘低点。Nollenberger Capital Partners研究部董事总经理吉布森(William Gibson)警告说，道琼斯指数距创出新低越近，市场出现更多卖盘的可能性就更大。随着两个指数创出本轮下跌的新低，这会令相信这一信号的投资者感到担忧。注册投资咨询机构Atlantic Advisors的总裁西德卡(Bennet Sedacca)写道，如果消费者备受煎熬，支出和信贷出现枯竭，还有比将货物在AB两地间运输的企业更好的吗？显然，没有比卡车运输和铁路运输更好的了。David Gaffen相关阅读美国市场的“希望气球”正在泄气 2009-02-17盖特纳新救助计划遭冷遇 2009-02-11美国股市情牵华盛顿 2009-02-09美股1月疲软 全年前景不妙 2009-01-27美股前途未卜 2009-01-26美国股市给奥巴马一个下马威 2009-01-21


Is it a blessing or a catastrophe that the Dow has reached closing levels seen in late November, when the entire world seemed to be coming to an end?At that time, major averages were hammered as frightened investors responded to the seize-up in the financial system. Tuesday's declines appear to be on more prosaic concerns, if a massive contraction in economic growth can be labeled as such. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Index bounced again, rising to 48.20, a 12% increase, but the fear evinced in trading circles still doesn't rival the rats-off-the-ship quality of the action in November.'Where financial markets are today vs. October - we're not in the same place,' says Bernie McGinn, president of McGinn Investment Management. 'It's a better situation because we're not talking about collapse of the system, and I think that's infinitely better.'Then again, that the market has moved away from its fear of collapse of the monetary system and toward an expectation of contracting demand and falling prices may not necessarily be a better option. For now, investors are looking at the likelihood that major averages will continue to head lower, based on technical expectations and the recognition of the dreary fundamental outlook.'Some would have thought we didn't need to test 750 [on the S&P 500], but my understanding is that if you close below 800, it's an all-clear for the way down,' says Linda Duessel, equity market strategist at Federated Investors.-Does it matter that the markets could not put together a rally on the news of the passage of the $787 billion stimulus package, supported mostly by the Democrats in Congress, along with a whisker of Republican support in the Senate?Whether the markets have ever believed in the credibility of the government is questionable - but for years investors got by on the knowledge that the presidential administration would do as little harm as possible to impact the markets. (Certainly this prevailed in the Clinton administration, and, when markets were rallying, anyway, during the Bush administration.)The impotent approach in the waning months of the last administration was reflected in the market's tendency to swoon after unexpected pronouncements and decisions (particularly those of then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson). That has carried over to the Obama administration, in part because of the enormous task at hand, as well as Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner's plans to rescue the financial system, which were viewed as insufficient in detail.Now, 'the market seems to have decided it doesn't like the stimulus package,' says Ms. Duessel.President Obama gets another opportunity to address markets Wednesday, when he announces a new housing plan, one drafted by Mr. Geithner and Shaun Donovan, the new housing secretary.'The Federal Reserve has announced numerous programs to support the financial markets, and each time the programs were either ready to go (with the exception of the delayed TALF) or at least had a timeline spelled out,' notes Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist at Miller Tabak. 'At the risk of trying to catch falling knives, I will go with the odds of success tomorrow and only hope Geithner heard last week's message loudly and clearly, and that more importantly, Obama recognizes that Wall Street is needed to fix problems on Main Street.'-Those who look at the old relationship between the Dow industrials and the Dow Jones Transportation Average cannot find anything to be happy about in Tuesday's action.The transports slumped, breaking through the closing lows reached Feb. 2, worrying those who believe the transport stocks serve as a good indicator of the economy's direction. Adding to the burgeoning concern is the Dow's performance, as the 30-stock average ended right near the day's lows, at 7552.45, which is just above the closing low of 7552.29 reached on Nov. 20, 2008.William Gibson, managing director of research at Nollenberger Capital Partners, warned that the closer the Dow industrials get to hitting a new low, the greater the likelihood that the market has more selling in store. With both indexes hitting new lows in this cycle, it's going to worry those who believe in this signal.'If the consumer is toast and spending and credit have dried up, what better place to look than who moves goods from Point A to Point B? Yep, trucking and rails,' writes Bennet Sedacca, president of Atlantic Advisors, a registered investment advisory.David Gaffen