Brazil Rises As Oil Power As Rivals Falter

随着巴西的石油业投资大量增加石油产量不断增长，委内瑞拉和墨西哥在拉美石油生产领域数十年的主导地位正迅速式微。如果巴西石油行业保持现有的发展速度，那将有助于弥补拉美其他国家石油产量下降所留下的缺口，并加强巴西的经济和政治影响力。拉美的石油产量约占全球总产量的10%。当世界石油需求再度增长时，鉴于巴西不断扩大的石油出口量，它很有机会从油价上涨中得到好处。墨西哥去年12月的石油产量仍居拉美各国之首，为每天272万桶，其次是委内瑞拉，日产量约为235万桶。巴西虽以188万桶位居第三，但与委内瑞拉和墨西哥的石油产量不断下滑迥然不同的是，巴西的石油产量正日益增长。出产了巴西几乎全部石油的国有能源公司Petrobras预计，几处新油田的陆续投产今年将使巴西的石油日产量增加到205万桶。自2000年以来，该公司石油产量已跃升了46%。国际能源署(International Energy Agency)预计，墨西哥的石油产量继2008年下降9%后，今年至少还将下降7%，因为其主要油田Cantarell的生产率继续在大幅下挫。自2004年以来，Cantarell已将墨西哥的石油产量拖低了五分之一。过去10年中，投资不足劳资纠纷和油田采收率大幅下降使委内瑞拉的石油日产量下降了70多万桶。国有石油公司PdVSA今年除面临资金短缺外，还要履行委内瑞拉作为欧佩克(OPEC)成员国所需承担的进一步减产义务。而巴西成为石油生产大国的愿望则使Petrobras能够立足长远。2008年的油价大跌使康菲石油公司(ConocoPhillips)和挪威国家石油公司(StatoilHydro ASA)等大型石油企业纷纷削减了资本支出。而Petrobras最近却宣布将其5年投资计划的规模增加55%，达到1,744亿美元。该公司首席执行长歌布瑞利(Jose Sergio Gabrielli)表示，公司计划跻身世界五大石油生产商之列。高盛(Goldman Sachs)的分析师们最近在一份研究报告中说，Petrobras新的业务计划既大胆又逆市场潮流而动，这有可能使该公司成为全球主要石油生产商中最有可能从油价下一上涨周期中获益的公司。巴西计划2020年以前使本国的石油产量增加一倍以上，超过三分之一的石油产量将来自最近发现的海上超深水油田。Petrobras计划在国内提炼这些新增产的石油，以便能够出口燃油而不是原油，从而最大限度地增加石油出口收入。国际能源署的供应分析师费夫(David Fyfe)说，巴西有潜力成为重要的石油出口国，问题只是更应将其视为原油出口国还是成品油出口国。他说，值此国际资本市场持续动荡之际，Petrobras要坚持其投资计划，必须找到融资渠道才行。高盛说，虽然Petrobras未达到自己的产量目标，但它在增加产量方面的表现已经优于大多数同行。该公司预计，未来几年Petrobras的产量将以每年4%至7%的速度增长。Peter Millard / Jeff Fick相关阅读石油投资欺诈案出现井喷 2009-01-19小玩一把原油升水行情 2009-01-09石油巨头的慷慨派息之举可能难以为继 2009-01-07 本文涉及股票或公司document.write (truthmeter('2009年02月11日13:47', 'PBR'));Petroleo Brasileiro S/a (ads)总部地点：巴西(Brazil)上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：PBRdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月11日13:47', 'PEM.YY'));Petroleos Mexicanos总部地点：墨西哥(Mexico)document.write (truthmeter('2009年02月11日13:47', 'PVZ.YY'));Petroleos de Venezuela S.A.总部地点：委内瑞拉(Venezuela)document.write (truthmeter('2009年02月11日13:47', 'PETR4.BR'));Petroleo Brasileiro S/A总部地点：巴西(Brazil)上市地点：圣保罗股票代码：PETR4


After dominating Latin America's oil production for decades, Venezuela and Mexico are fading fast as Brazil steps up with massive investments and rising output.If Brazil keeps up the pace, it will help compensate for waning output elsewhere in a region that pumps about 10% of the world's oil and strengthen the country's economic and political clout. When global oil demand picks up again, Brazil will be well positioned to take advantage of rising prices thanks to a larger export base.Mexico led Latin American oil production in December with 2.72 million barrels a day, followed by Venezuela, with an estimated 2.35 million barrels a day. Brazil trailed with 1.88 million barrels a day, but the wind blows at its back while Venezuela and Mexico are slipping.State-run energy company Petroleo Brasileiro SA, which accounts for nearly all of Brazil's crude-oil output, expects several new fields to lift production this year to 2.05 million barrels a day. Output at the company, known as Petrobras, has jumped 46% since 2000.The International Energy Agency expects Mexico's oil production to drop at least 7% this year, after a 9% decline in 2008, because productivity of its main Cantarell oil field continues to plummet. Cantarell has dragged total Mexican output down by a fifth since 2004.Insufficient investment, labor unrest and steep natural decline rates have pushed Venezuelan production down by more than 700,000 barrels a day over the past decade. This year, state-run Petroleos de Venezuela SA, known as PdVSA, faces a cash crunch as well as increased production cuts as a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC.The lure of becoming an oil power has Petrobras looking long term. The 2008 oil-price crash forced major oil companies such as ConocoPhillips Co. and Norway's StatoilHydro ASA to slash capital spending. Petrobras recently announced a 55% increase in its five-year investment plan to $174.4 billion. The company plans to become one of the world's five largest producers, Petrobras Chief Executive Jose Sergio Gabrielli has said.Goldman Sachs analysts said in a recent report, 'We believe Petrobras's bold, contrarian new business plan might well make it the best positioned major oil company globally for the next oil price upcycle.'Brazil plans to more than double oil production by 2020, with over one-third coming from recently discovered, ultradeep offshore 'subsalt' fields. Petrobras plans to refine the new production domestically to export fuel instead of crude, thereby maximizing export revenues.'The potential is there for Brazil to become a significant exporter,' said David Fyfe, a supply analyst at the Paris-based IEA. 'The question is more do we see them as a crude exporter or a products exporter.' He said that Petrobras needs to find financing during a period of turmoil in international capital markets to stick with its investment program.Goldman Sachs said Petrobras has outperformed most of its peers in production growth even though the company has fallen short of its own targets. The bank expects the company's annual production to grow by a percentage in the mid-single digits for years to come.Peter Millard / Jeff Fick