As Goes The Bank Sector, So Do The Dow And S&P

奥巴马政府曾承诺在下周推出银行业救助计划，但从股市走势图上看，股票市场对这一计划的希望已经逐渐退去。交易员说，除非对银行业偿付能力的信心重新恢复，否则标准普尔500指数不太可能突破750至900点的区间，道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数也不太可能突破7500点至9000点的区间。许多大型银行股都在低位徘徊，美国银行(Bank of America)的股票周三收于1990年以来的最低水平。股市走势已经出现一种规律，即在新的政府干预行动崭露头角时，银行类股曾引领大盘反弹，但在接下来的几周里就会因为严酷的现实而重归跌途。这种现实就是：对银行体系无力偿债的担忧没有灵丹妙药可以消除。股市近期的走势让一些市场人士想起当救助房利美(Fannie Mae)和房地美(Freddie Mac)的计划刚刚推出，以及问题资产救助计划(TARP)公布伊始时，市场出现的短暂反弹。一些交易员说，迄今为止，没有理由相信这一新计划的推出会同以往其它“传言时买进，消息兑现时卖出”的例子会有任何不同。就银行业来说，不能保证政府的任何计划将会稳定金融领域，而且仍存在政府接手大量股份的可能性，而这将稀释现有股东的权益。投资研究公司Schaeffer's Investment Research高级技术策略师德特里克(Ryan Detrick)说，每当政府推出金融刺激方案时，最初都会出现反弹，但总体趋势仍是向下。自去年9月中旬雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)破产，银行系统陷入危机以来，金融类股一直牵着股市的鼻子走。今年以来，普遍用来作为标准普尔500指数金融成份股表现参照的Financial Select Sector SPDR基金，在23个交易日中有16天的走势同道琼斯指数一致，即约有70%的时间表现类似。1月20日这家基金出现今年以来的最大跌幅，当天道琼斯指数也创出了今年来的最大跌幅。投资公司SEI Investments固定收益管理部负责人Sean Simko说，在问题的解决之道变得清晰之前，市场将继续上下震荡。Rob Curran相关阅读美股1月疲软 全年前景不妙 2009-01-27美股前途未卜 2009-01-26美国股市尚无持续上扬迹象 2009-01-19美国股市2012年重返高位？ 2009-01-13为什么现在不是熊市的结束 2009-01-12拿什么拯救你，我的股市？ 2009-01-05展望2009年美国股市 2008-12-31 本文涉及股票或公司document.write (truthmeter('2009年02月05日12:22', 'XLF'));Select Sector SPDR-Financial总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所成长板(ARCA)股票代码：XLF


'Hope' for the bank rescue plan promised by the Obama administration for next week has already faded from the stock market, according to stock charts.Until confidence returns on the solvency of banks, the market is unlikely to break out of the range between 750 and 900 on the Standard & Poor's 500 and between 7500 and 9000 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, traders say.Many large banking stocks are trading at distressed levels, and Bank of America closed Wednesday at its lowest level since 1990. A pattern has emerged where banking stocks lead the broad market on a rally at the first signs of new government intervention, only to return to their downward ways during the ensuing weeks as the harsh reality sinks in: There is no quick fix to fears of insolvency in the banking system.Recent stock-market action reminds some market participants of the short-lived rallies when a plan to rescue mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was unveiled, or when the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP, financial rescue package was floated.So far, some traders say, there is little reason to believe the unfolding of this new plan will be any different to the other instances of 'buy the rumor, sell the news.'In this case, there is no guarantee that any government plan will stabilize the financial sector, and there remains the possibility that the government could have to take big ownership stakes that would dilute current shareholders. 'Every time we have some kind of financial stimulation from the government, we definitely pop initially, but the overall trend tends to be lower' for the financials and the market, said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research.The financial sector has led the stock market around by the nose since mid-September when Lehman Brothers failed and the banking system went into crisis mode.So far this year, the Financial Select Sector SPDR, a popular proxy for the sector that mirrors the performance of the S&P 500 financial components, has moved in the same direction as the Dow on 16 of the 23 sessions so far this year, or about 70% of the time. The biggest drop of the year for the fund, on Jan. 20, was also the biggest drop for the Dow.'Until there's a clear picture drawn of any kind of resolution,' said Sean Simko, head of fixed-income management at SEI Investments, 'you're going to see this market stay choppy.'Rob Curran