What's So Scary About Deflation? Read On

物价下降对消费者来说可能是求之不得的好事，但却会让经济学家们冒出一身冷汗。他们担心的是：通货紧缩将引发经济萧条。近期公布的经济数据显示，美国很有可能正在陷入上世纪30年代初以来首次出现的严重通货紧缩局面，而这有可能对消费者和投资者产生重大影响。身为经济咨询公司A. Gary Shilling & Co.总裁的通货紧缩专家谢林(A. Gary Shilling)说，今年肯定会出现通货紧缩，真正的问题是局面会否最终演变为慢性通缩。虽然美国的物价水平在2008年的大部分时间都呈现疲软，但直到经季节性因素调整的消费者价格指数在11月份下降1.7%之后，政府决策者才开始公开表露对通货紧缩幽灵的担忧。11月份的物价下跌导致折合成年率的三个月期核心消费者价格指数(CPI)（不包括食品和能源价格）仅仅上涨了0.1%。正如旧金山联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)在其网站上所解释的：“……当核心消费者价格指数低于1%时，没人能够确定当前是处于低度通货膨胀还是温和通货紧缩状态。”经济衰退时期物价上涨速度放慢是正常的，这种现象被称做反通货膨胀。但通货紧缩则是物价持续下降，它被视为经济核废料。在过去100年中，中度通货紧缩每隔一段时间就会突然出现一次，最近一次出现是在2002年，此前在1949年和1954年也出现过。但19世纪90年代和20世纪30年代那样严峻而持久的通货紧缩却导致了令人恐怖的经济萧条。事实上，在美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)去年12月中旬的会议上，美联储的一些成员“已看到了通货膨胀率可能下降并在令人不安的低水平上长期徘徊的重大风险”。为什么消费者能便宜地加油和买东西反而是件如此危险的事呢？经济学家们担心，物价下降会产生连锁反应，从而导致经济增长停顿。首先，不断减弱的市场需求可能会迫使企业降价，从而损害企业的利润。如果物价长期下降，消费者和企业就有可能推迟采购，因为他们期待价格还会进一步下跌(如果你觉得几个月后能更便宜地买到房子汽车或飞机票，为什么还要现在买？)，从而导致物价进一步陷入低迷，并引发竞相削价的恶性循环。这种情况下企业不会有什么动力去进行资本投资或生产更多产品，因为他们不敢期望能够收回投资。美联储最近一直在试图刺激经济增长，避免美国陷入通货紧缩，其做法是向金融体系大量注入资金，而具体手段之一就是将联邦基金利率降至0至0.25%的水平。但美联储这一做法能否避免物价陷入跌跌不休的状态目前还没有定论。如果通货紧缩之势已成，看看你的个人财务将会受到何种影响吧：你的生活成本将会下降。《通货紧缩：当物价下跌时会发生什么》(Deflation: What Happens When Prices Fall)一书的作者法雷尔(Chris Farrell)说，你手中的每块美元都会变得更值钱；当物价下跌时，同样的收入能够买来更多东西。但你的生活水平也有可能下降。如果你能维持原有收入水平，那么物价下降只会对你有好处。但在企业因利润下降被迫裁减更多员工之际，这可能有点难度。即使你保住了工作，收入也有可能大幅下降。虽然一次性大幅降薪的情况并不多见，但最近这种情况已经越来越多了。例如，联邦快递(FedEx)和卡特彼勒公司(Caterpillar)最近便宣布2009年要给部分员工降薪。更常见的是用非直接方式减薪，具体方式有企业推迟向员工的401(k)退休金帐户缴款（就像Sears联邦快递和摩托罗拉(Motorola)等许多公司最近做的那样），减少奖金发放额以及缩减医疗保险福利等。借贷成本会下降。利率预计将维持在低水平。理由之一是，在美国经济增长的基础重新稳固之前，美联储将维持宽松的货币政策。理由之二，由于贷款需求疲弱，放贷机构为争夺客户被迫进行激烈的竞争，而且它们也不用担心通货膨胀会侵蚀未来利息收入的价值。但现有债务的实际规模却会增长。在通货紧缩时期美元会变得更值钱。所以无论是你欠的债务还是你支付的本息，其实际价值都会增加。增加投资性收入需要承担更大风险。近来短期固定收益证券的收益率低得可以忽略不计，这既是因为美联储的不断降息，也是因为投资者纷纷将资金转向这些安全性最高流动性最强的投资品种。事实上，三个月期美国国债的收益率去年12月初曾短暂变为负值，这意味着投资者甚至愿以亏本为代价追求投资安全。如果你想让自己的投资创造可靠的现金流，那么这种环境是令人烦恼的。标准普尔(Standard & Poor's)的首席经济学家魏斯(David Wyss)说，通货紧缩对那些寻求低风险收入的退休者来说是个大问题。应对之道一是购买中长期债券。10年期美国国债最近的票面利率为3.7%，30年期国债的票面利率为4.5%。麻烦之处在于，中长期债券的投资风险较高，这部分是因为通货膨胀有可能卷土重来，从而降低未来利息收入的价值。 当然，通货紧缩旷日持久的可能性也同样存在，如果是这样，那么投资长期美国国债获得的利息收入将会越来越值钱。中度通货紧缩不会对股市造成致命伤害。Leuthold Group对1872至2002年间各个中度通货膨胀和中度通货紧缩阶段标准普尔500指数的表现进行了考察，发现略微有点通货紧缩不碍大事。在物价跌幅平均处于0至2.4%的年份，股市的年回报率为相当不错的14.6%。(但这一数据可能因1954年的情况而有所失真。那一年的消费者价格指数下降了0.5%，而标准普尔500指数则上涨了52.6%，这是该指数1926年以来第二高的年度增幅。)但严重的通货紧缩却有可能对股市造成沉重打击。在上世纪经济大萧条的最初几年，物价下降了约30%，而股市的跌幅比这高一倍还不止。Carla Fried相关阅读亚洲通胀压力缓解增大央行降息空间 2009-02-03欧元区1月份通货膨胀率降至近十年低点 2009-01-30原声视频：CPI数据预示通货紧缩？(中文字幕) 2009-01-19美国CPI连跌撒布通货紧缩阴云 2009-01-16特里谢称欧洲央行预计2009年欧洲不会出现通货紧缩问题 2009-01-09 本文涉及股票或公司document.write (truthmeter('2009年02月06日16:11', 'SCHW'));嘉信理财英文名称：Charles Schwab Corp.总部地点：美国上市地点：纳斯达克股票代码：SCHWdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月06日16:11', 'SCHW'));Charles Schwab Corp.总部地点：美国上市地点：纳斯达克股票代码：SCHW


Lower prices may be manna to consumers, but they can cause economists to break out in cold sweats. Their fear: that one big D (deflation) will lead to another (depression).Recent economic data suggest that the U.S. may well be heading into its first significant bout of deflation since the early 1930s, with potentially major impact on consumers and investors. 'That we are going to have deflation this year is a given,' says A. Gary Shilling, deflation expert and president of economics consulting firm A. Gary Shilling & Co. 'The real road test is whether we end up with chronic deflation.'Prices softened through much of 2008, but it was a 1.7% November drop in the seasonally adjusted consumer price index that caused policy makers to fret openly about the specter of deflation. November's drop brought the annualized three-month core CPI (which excludes food and energy prices) to an anemic 0.1% increase. As the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco explains on its Web site, '...when the measured inflation rate is below 1%, one cannot really tell for sure whether we are experiencing low inflation or modest deflation.'It's normal during a recession for the pace of price increases to slow -- that's disinflation. But deflation, a sustained decline in prices, is considered economic nuclear waste. Mild deflation scares have cropped up intermittently during the past century -- most recently in 2002, and also in 1949 and 1954. But the last severe and prolonged bouts of deflation, in the 1890s and 1930s, led to horrific depressions. Indeed, the Federal Reserve noted at its mid-December meeting that some members 'saw significant risks that inflation could decline and persist for a time at uncomfortably low levels.'What's so dangerous about catching a break at the gas pump or the checkout counter? Economists worry that price reductions can have a cascading effect that grinds the economy to a halt. First, weakening demand may force businesses to slash prices, undermining profits. If prices fall for an extended period, consumers and businesses may begin delaying purchases in anticipation of further price declines (why buy a house, car or plane ticket today if you think you can buy it for less in a few months?), causing demand to slump even more -- and leading to a vicious cycle of price cuts. Businesses then have little incentive to make capital investments or manufacture more goods, because they won't expect to be able to recoup their investments.The Fed this time around has attempted to spur the economy and avert deflation by providing a massive infusion of cash, in part by lowering the federal funds rate to a target range between 0.25% and zero. But the jury's out on whether the Fed's actions will avert a protracted period of falling prices. If deflation does take hold, here's how it's likely to affect your financial life.Your cost of living will decline. 'Every dollar of income becomes more valuable,' says Chris Farrell, author of Deflation: What Happens When Prices Fall. 'The same income buys you more when prices are lower.'But your standard of living might decline, too. Falling prices only work to your advantage if you can maintain your income. That may be difficult when falling profits force companies to lay off (more) workers.Your income may slump even if you hold onto your job. Outright salary cuts are rare, but they have become more common recently: For example, FedEx and Caterpillar recently announced salary reductions in 2009 for some employees. More common are indirect pay cuts, in the form of suspended 401(k) matching contributions (recently enacted by Sears, FedEx, Motorola and many other companies), smaller bonuses and weaker medical coverage.Borrowing becomes cheaper. Interest rates are likely to stay low. For one, the Fed will hold the monetary spigot open until the economy regains its footing. What's more, lenders will have to compete furiously in the face of weak demand -- and they won't worry much about the potential for inflation to erode the value of future interest payments.But the real size of existing debt increases. Dollars become more valuable during periods of deflation -- so any debt you owe, and any payments you make, will come in more-expensive dollars.Generating investment income requires taking on more risk. Short-term fixed-income securities pay negligible yield these days, thanks to the Fed's interest rate reductions and investors' stampede to the highest-quality, most-liquid investments. In fact, investors in early December briefly purchased three-month Treasury bills offering negative yields -- meaning the investors willingly took a loss in pursuit of safety. This kind of environment is troubling if you need your investments to generate reliable cash flow. 'Deflation is a big problem for retirees looking for low-risk income,' says David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's.One option is to purchase longer-term bonds: A 10-year Treasury bond recently paid 3.7%, while a 30-year Treasury offered a 4.5% coupon. Trouble is, longer-term bonds are riskier, in part because inflation may return, reducing the value of future interest payments. Of course, the reverse is also true: If deflation persists, the fixed payment from a long-term Treasury bond will grow increasingly valuable.Mild deflation doesn't doom stocks. The Leuthold Group examined the performance of the S&P 500 during periods of mild inflation and mild deflation between 1872 and 2002. Turns out that a little deflation isn't anything to lose sleep over: Stocks generated a healthy 14.6% annualized return during years in which deflation averaged between zero and 2.4%. (That said, the average may be skewed by 1954, when CPI fell 0.5% and the S&P 500 gained 52.6% -- its second-best calendar-year return since 1926.)But severe deflation probably does. During the first years of the Great Depression, prices fell about 30%, and stocks dropped more than twice that much.Carla Fried